Boroughs & Burbs, the National Real Estate Conversation

Boroughs & Burbs 174 || Middle East Outbound Investing

John Engel and Roberto Cabrera Season 5 Episode 174

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In Season 5, Episode #174 of Boroughs & Burbs, we welcome Henry Faun from Knight Frank to explore the dynamic world of outbound Middle Eastern investment. With vast experience in this growing sector, Henry discusses where wealthy Middle Eastern investors are looking to invest in the US—focusing on specific cities, markets, and real estate types. We’ll dive into travel trends, from popular vacation destinations to emerging cities that are attracting attention. Plus, we’ll explore how education plays a key role in investment decisions, with a look at which US cities and universities are favored for sending children to study. Don’t miss this insightful conversation on global wealth trends!

SPEAKER_00:

The Burroughs are New York City. The Burbs are everywhere else. Real estate is the ultimate game of risk and reward. It's the biggest investment most people ever make. Fortunes are made over a lifetime and lost in a day. And we're not playing with monopoly money. How do you stay ahead? Who's buying? Who's selling? And why? What do they know? We want the truth. You need an edge. Burroughs& Burbs is your secret weapon, giving you the insider knowledge and strategies you need to succeed in the high We press the experts to expose the pain, find the deals, and occasionally predict the future. That's Burroughs& Burbs, Thursdays, 3 o'clock Eastern, noon Pacific. Because everyone can make money in real estate.

SPEAKER_01:

Welcome, everybody. Burrs and Burbs, episode 174. We're talking about Middle East investing. We've already done a show on opportunities in Dubai a couple weeks ago. We did a couple months ago, we did the Knight Frank wealth report. Today, we have Henry Fawn, who leads Knight Frank's Middle Eastern team, working with a lot of the private offices, family offices in the about is what's going on in the Middle East. Where are they investing? Where are they thinking? What are they interested in? Why? How's it changing? But first, let me share my screen and thank our sponsor, Grace Farms. That's Grace Farms in the snow. We got, Henry, we got three inches of snow this morning in New Canaan, and that's what it looks like in New Canaan today. That's Grace Farms,

SPEAKER_03:

our...

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, so that's my commute this morning. Only six minutes, but it was touch and go there for a while. Anyway, we want to thank Grace Farms. They are an amazing resource to the local community with 80 acres, a library, a cafeteria, a... a performance venue, and they host places like the United Nations conferences up there and do really great work. So support Grace Farms. You'll find them at gracefarms.org. As I said, you'll find us at burrowsandburbs.com, and you'll find all the episodes, and they're doing pretty well lately. I think we're doing about 5,000 views per week of Burrows and Burbs. That's my partner, and this is his latest market report. You'll find it at robertocabrera.com, and he's talking mostly about the New York market and the mood in New York. And with that, Henry Fawn, partner, Middle East private office. As I said, I went to the Knight Frank market wealth report, And I downloaded the Wealth Report. And when I get to the global network, I find Henry Fawn there in the Middle East running seven offices. And what is that? 289, 285 people working the Middle East. Without further ado, welcome, Henry Fawn. Proud to be here, John. Thrilled to be here, Roberto. Nice to see you. Yeah, this is awesome. At first, we were a little confused. We said, oh, are we going to talk about Americans investing in the Middle East today? And you said, well, we could do a little bit of that, but we really wanted to dive into where the wealth being produced in the Middle East is looking to invest in foreign markets. Is that right?

SPEAKER_04:

I agree, John. I think this is a very interesting topic for yourselves and your listeners to have a chat about and a small insight into. With the wealth that's coming out of the Middle East as well, lots of it is looking at the U.S. So that is certainly an engaging topic for us to talk about.

SPEAKER_02:

Henry, can I just ask you something? Strategically, just looking at the Middle East, you have offices, you have seven offices. I'm assuming they've strategically been placed in wealthy spots where you can do business. Where are those offices? Correct.

SPEAKER_04:

So we opened up Roberto in Abu Dhabi many years back, probably 15 years ago in total. We then moved down the road to Dubai, probably the business hub at the moment. of the entire region. This is the easiest place to trade. Lifestyle is very attractive there. For example, gentlemen, there's no income tax on your salary in Dubai, as one little snippet offers. Now, we've opened up since then, expanded quite rapidly across the region into Qatar. You can see on the left side of your screen there, we have an office there in Doha. And then we now have two offices in Saudi Arabia, the very large country just a little bit further left on the map there, covering off Riyadh, which is the capital of Saudi Arabia, and then also Jeddah, which is on the far coast side on this side. And that means that we can have teams strategically placed to support our clients across the region. This last year, we actually opened up in Northern Africa as well in Cairo, Egypt. I'm going to have an office in Zamalek right in the city center of Cairo. So we're covering up that entire strip over there for our clients. Now, gentlemen, For the region here, that is a good spattering of offices, I think is a fair way to look at it. But that is certainly not the entire region. The Middle East is much, much bigger. You can keep zooming out of your map there, and we can see more of the Middle East even still. Now, it means that when we do have clients in the wider region, we can still support them. We travel in and out remotely. We go on the ground there to meet with them, perhaps value or provide consultancy services or even transactional work on the real estate. For example, this last week, I was in Morocco, Marrakesh, meeting a client down there to support with potentially a villa we may be bringing to the market close to 30 million euros. A couple of years ago, I was up over north in Pakistan. Now, my friend hasn't got offices in Pakistan, but I went over there to support our clients on the ground in Pakistan. So that gives you a couple of small examples of where we will step into the wider region. Even though we've got a good office spread, it certainly doesn't cover everything. where we need to be.

SPEAKER_02:

Are those particular clients you mentioned, do those leads germinate from the Middle East or do they come from London?

SPEAKER_04:

Great question there, Roberto. I would say, generally speaking, the majority of our leads will be generated on the ground in the Middle East in terms of new business, business development, meeting new clients will come on the ground in the Middle East. Now, I'm actually currently today in our global headquarters, which is in London, Roberto. However, I would safely say that in the months of the hot months, now let's say July, August, and September, where much of the map you just saw gets to be probably at the cool end, 40 degrees, at the higher end, 55 degrees. So many of them will end up over here at the camp in London, and perhaps France, and even in the US, and we'll come on to that later on. But it means that I can probably do more meetings and do more client business generation of new leads and perhaps nurturing old clients as well in a coffee shop here in London than I can do in the Middle East at that specific time of year.

SPEAKER_01:

It seems like it's only been in the last few years that a lot of our major Western European and American brands, we're finding them in the Middle East, right? The soccer stars, the Olympics, so many things. But long before that happened, I think there was the Middle Eastern wealth came to America, invested in these brands, Long before they brought them down to the Middle East. And a lot of the agents who watch this show and a lot of people are like, well, how do I get in front of them? Do I have to be a New York? Do I have to be? Is it enough to be a New York agent? No. They develop their relationships with Knight Frank and then they and they come over here with a trusted advisor. Or do they come over here, buy an apartment in New York, enroll their kids in school, invest in Citibank and eventually develop their relationships with Knight Frank? relationships over here or in London or in Paris. So talk to us about, I guess, the migration of wealth.

SPEAKER_04:

Almost the route to market as well, John.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, and where the

SPEAKER_04:

relationships take place. Agreed. As always, clients will find their own personal route on this, but we can have a high-level brush across this. I would say, generally speaking, many of my clients that have invested in the U.S. in previous years may have come from a different background. It may be the case that actually they were educated in the US. Perhaps they went to Boston at MIT or at New York University or somewhere similar to that. That means they've done three to five to six years on the ground living there. And they're feeling that's a good chunk of their probably adult life as students have been spent on the ground enjoying the company in the US. So certainly that'll be one routine. They will know the infrastructure there. They will know the legal systems as well, John. They'll know perhaps where the nicer areas or less nice areas are for real estate in each of those markets. And therefore, future investments, perhaps when they come to work for a family business or maybe they make some money in their own business later on, they know what they're looking at in terms of a sniper shot. They may even have some local friends on the ground in the U.S. that they made back when they were studying there. Now, others go there on holiday. Of course, we know that. Every summer, like I mentioned, for those that I might meet here in London, there'll be an equal amount on the ground in the U.S. We know that. So many will be going there for family reasons to holiday. They will already have a property or perhaps even a preferred hotel. They may book out the entire hotel. I've got many clients that take whole floor plates of hotels in New York, Roberto, when they come. And therefore, they will know from multiple visits over years, perhaps growing up with their parents who favored New York or Miami or L.A. or whatever it might have been for their own family reasons. So some of them will perhaps generate a relationship with us on the ground with Knight Frank locally as their advisor for real estate in the region where they live. And we will then open it up to yourselves when they want to talk about the U.S. markets, of course. Or perhaps they'll have their already existing route from many of their travel events or perhaps even studying over there and have relationships that are already existing on the ground.

SPEAKER_01:

So what I'm hearing is one way that we encounter them is through their ties with universities in London and in America. And the second is when they come over through holiday. I heard that. And the third is through the investments they're making. We hear about high profile investments in Citibank or Tesla and where they take major stakes in American companies. And So is that translating into the real estate decisions they're making? When you make an investment in Tesla, do the Arabs, do the Middle Easterners also buy in Austin? When they make an investment in New York, does it tie them to the New York real estate market?

SPEAKER_04:

John, that's a great point. I think what I would draw it fully back to is confidence in the U.S., Many of those stakes that you mentioned of the several companies there that you just brushed over, they're actually coming from almost government level funds. Some of them might be a sovereign wealth fund, which is what you're getting out there, which took stakes in various big companies recently. Or others may be a sort of quasi sovereign wealth fund as well, which are the main fund, but they could be smaller funds that are held, but also predominantly government level backed. Now, let's say they come to the US and invest in some of these banks or otherwise companies in the U.S. That's showing a level of confidence from this country's government over to the U.S. at that time that we want to send X many million billion dollars, whatever it might be, at that time to the U.S. And therefore, many of the investors behind them, perhaps larger families, billionaire families, whatever it might be, will say, OK, great. Our government has got the confidence to look at that. Why don't we explore what further opportunities we could talk about?

SPEAKER_02:

Have you seen that confidence escalate since the election from an investment standpoint?

SPEAKER_04:

I'm pleased you asked that. I've seen the confidence rocket ship through the air, I think is a fair way to put it. Now, confidence in all countries around the world will ebb and flow depending on political situation, on climate, on other bits and pieces that go on. But I would certainly say in the past few weeks and maybe even months since it became relatively clear where the political stance of the U.S. was going, very good confidence. Now, you may have even picked up on in the press recent dialogues between the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and President Trump as well, looking potentially at President Trump's first overseas formal visit, which could well be to Saudi Arabia. We're yet to see that, but

SPEAKER_02:

let's see that. It was the last time. That was his first stop the last time. It

SPEAKER_04:

was last time, and that's why the conversation has already come back, Roberto. It looks promising, but it might be going that way again. Now, this is showing an unprecedented level of confidence back from the Middle East, who have already promised if Trump travels to Saudi Arabia as his first formal overseas visit, they promised a very large amount, actually$600 billion worth of investment into the U.S. Now, that is a very sizable commitment coming from the kingdom, but it shows the alignment that they are looking for to achieve with Trump during his term.

SPEAKER_02:

The people on a personal level that you see, are they, is it about buying personal property, condominiums, things like that, residential, or is there a commercial component of buying an office building, you know, more of a, or something to that effect?

SPEAKER_04:

Great question, Roberto. I would suggest that on a personal level, so for individuals and families and their family offices that will support the wider family there and their overall investments, I usually see for any new country, and this is not a US comment specifically, this is a coming from the Middle East overseas comment, Roberto. I would say that for any new country, they will start small. Perhaps let's go and pick up a condo wherever it might be, or something small, a smallish residential investment that they can understand. The legal landscape, how do we buy it? If we wanted to take borrowing on the ground in the US, can we borrow from a local bank in America to fund part of it? And once they've done a small investment like that, it works. Maybe they're living in the apartment or they've rented it out and put it into the rental pool for the local economy to benefit from. Then later on, they can grow that, then put it into something larger. So I would suggest traditionally it would be a smaller residential. There may be a larger residential family holiday home and then probably evolve into commercial real estate. Now, the ones that are most advanced perhaps have decades now, more than decades, even investing in the U.S. Many of them own hotels, multiple hotels, maybe even development sites. I've got clients from the Middle East that own development land in the U.S. and are working with local developers in the U.S. to build that land out. It could be even strip malls. It could be multifamily. It depends what it is. And these are at the very far end in terms of advanced attitude towards investment in the U.S.

SPEAKER_02:

Specifically region-wise, are they looking at the trophy places, for example, New York, Boston, Miami, Los Angeles, or are there, do you see people going into parts of middle America or places that could use investment where there are actually probably tremendous opportunity, but there's less knowledge?

SPEAKER_04:

So I would say if they're going to look at residential homes, now this is either a second home, Roberto, or even an investment property, the city that you mentioned already pretty well cover all the boxes. I wouldn't see a residential home often being purchased in middle America. However, what you've picked up on there is that there are cities outside of those that do require good levels of investment. And with that, that means there could be very good, attractive returns for them, Roberto. So if we can look at that, many of the more advanced cities family offices that have full investment teams who can go and travel around the American. I've seen this in the past few months. There are many investment teams from Middle East and family offices looking around and visiting different opportunities and weighing them up before they pull the trigger, so to speak, on their investment.

SPEAKER_02:

And are they typically looking for partners? They're looking for partners, I would assume.

SPEAKER_04:

They can, in terms of looking for direct investment into real estate, they might pick up some investments on their own, or if it's more of a development with a development player, they will find someone with the expertise on the ground to be able to to find the supply chain is what I'm looking for in terms of bringing a project together.

SPEAKER_01:

I want to get real specific. When I think of trying to find the wealthy people and follow their migration patterns and where are they going and where are they leaving in the U.S., for example, we track New Yorkers who are buying in Florida, A, because of a tax situation, but that's not relevant to your market. We're watching where they're spending less than 180 days, maybe in New York, and maybe they're moving their hedge fund to Palm Beach, right? Those decisions, or for instance, where you summer in the Hamptons, right? Maybe you go to the Hamptons or maybe you go to Nantucket or you maybe go to one of these places because your friends go there. So what are the hotspots that are appealing to the Middle East And why? Because they don't have the same tax considerations and they don't have the same consideration of of hanging out maybe, you know, close to New York City. So they pick the Hamptons. So what are the decisions? Where are they going and why are they going?

SPEAKER_04:

OK, so I would look at it through this position is in different lens. You've had a lens there of local New Yorkers perhaps moving down to Florida, for example, for their own personal tax. I would suggest let's look at it from the lens of the Middle East, whereby they may come to the U.S. It may not be for the full year. They may not be living there full time. They'll come to visit for several months of the year, but not throughout. They've got their business. They've got their homes. They've got their families across the Middle East. So when they're there, what do they want to be doing? They want to be close to those very nice restaurants, perhaps decent shopping. Maybe the hotels nearby they enjoy as well. If it's city orientated. certainly city center, or if it's beach orientated, certainly as well. There's many great beach locations that we can all name here. So it depends what they are coming for, John, when they're looking at their real estate. But yes, tax is less relevant for them because they're not rolling into the U.S. tax system. They're not U.S. passport holders. And therefore, I would suggest what are they coming for? If it's education, I would suggest probably they end up in New York or Boston will be the first border call. We even had a family several years back now that bought a full multifamily block in Boston. because they had so many grandchildren coming through uh that all wanted to be educated there it made more sense that they use it for the children when they can do and they can refurbish it and keep it very good quality keep it secure and then put it into the local rental pool when it's not being used and let the local residents in boston rent it and enjoy it themselves so it'll depend on what they're coming to the us for whether it's a holiday home education um or just a city break

SPEAKER_01:

Do they pick any of the, so I'm going to rattle off a couple that I think would be unlikely. We did a show on Aspen, and it occurs to me that why would I go to Aspen, you know, because my friends go to Aspen and because I love skiing, but it occurs to me that that's not, for instance, a hot market for your market, but it might be for New York.

SPEAKER_04:

Agreed, but I say it wouldn't be a hot market in terms of buying real estate, but I've certainly come across many clients that enjoy skiing in Aspen. Same way they would enjoy skiing in the French Alps or Italian Alps in Europe. Certainly Aspen will be top of the list if they want good quality skiing with excellent restaurants and everything that surrounds that in terms of a decent family holiday away, John. So I wouldn't completely write it off as a location. It may not be the best location that they want to buy an office block in, but certainly for holiday purposes, I certainly have clients that do visit Aspen.

SPEAKER_01:

We did a show on Hilton Head, historically a retirement, you know, a place where people want to go to retire. Again, probably not relevant to your market, or are they considering some of the best retirement places in America? They're considering them too.

SPEAKER_04:

I would actually look at that again through a different stance, John, is that if, for example, we have some of these less well-known areas to the wider Middle East, where in, for example, in the summertime, you wouldn't expect to see too many Middle Easterners there versus perhaps in a shopping district or New York would be very pleasant, or the decent hotels there, or LA or Miami, whatever it might be. I would suggest that if there's a decent investment opportunity there, where, for example, a good amount of retirement property in terms of real estate can be built or whatever it might be, then I think all of these locations, John, will come with their own merits and say if there's a decent return to be had and the fundamentals are there to drive forward a decent investment, then why not? Let's have a look at it.

SPEAKER_01:

Wow. So they're breaking the old rules. My old stereotypes of where they're interested in, which is centered around the best American universities, that old model is breaking down and they're considering

SPEAKER_04:

all

SPEAKER_01:

of our interesting

SPEAKER_04:

markets. Given how brilliantly advanced many of the investors are across the entire region, if there's good opportunities to use for investments, they will be considered. It's probably the best way I can frame that, John.

SPEAKER_02:

Can I ask you a question about the flow of, for example, It's my perception that money from the Middle East and, for example, India tends to go to London first. They don't take that extra step to the U.S. And we've always, in my opinion, struggled a little bit with that. But have you seen that with maybe with Brexit or just more opportunity potentially in the U.S.? I don't know where. the flow towards the U.S. is increasing from the perspective of that, not just necessarily the new administration. I mean, do you understand what I'm saying? Like, London has always kind of captured that entire region and into India.

SPEAKER_01:

It occurs to me that it's a lot easier to get to London. Oh, for sure. And I

SPEAKER_02:

think that's

SPEAKER_01:

a

SPEAKER_02:

big factor. I think

SPEAKER_01:

that's

SPEAKER_02:

a big factor.

SPEAKER_04:

John, that was exactly where I was going with it, is that flight time, if we just look at it on the basic fundamentals, if you want to pop away for four days only, Roberto, you've got to be considerate about flight time. If it's three weeks, it doesn't really matter where we're going. But if it's just a four-day visit, we need to consider how long it's going to take to get there and what time zone your body will be in when you arrive. Are you losing another day of travel? So the reality is that London's always very easy. We've got between three and four hours maximum time zone change with a six and a half to seven hour flight time. So it's very easy from the entire Middle East to get to London. You're right. And enjoy that. Now, what we may even often see is many that choose to break up their travel, Roberto. Many may come to London, break up for a few days, and then move on to the US after that, which can make a lot of sense. But certainly I would agree with you. The first port of what I often find from the Middle East, hence why I'm in London right now today, is that much of the first foray in terms of overseas investment can come to the UK. They understand the laws very well, language, of course, very easy, same as it is in the US. And education is well established here in terms of being very welcoming to Middle Eastern.

SPEAKER_02:

So let me ask you, what would the decision tree be? If you had a client, you met them in... Abu Dhabi or whatever, and they say, look, I have$10 million to deploy, and I'm not, when I get away, I get away for, you know, the travel's not a concern. I say they get away for, you know, four months, I mean, four weeks at a time, and it's not a big deal. And they say, look, I'm considering London. I'm actually thinking about the U.S. What's the decision tree on that?

SPEAKER_04:

Okay, good question. I would say perhaps where they already know already. They already know New York brilliantly, Roberto, and that might be a good part of the decision. If you're going to go somewhere and enjoy it, sometimes people like to be creatures of habit about over the years. They don't like to perhaps buy a place somewhere they've never been to. That's nice to explore, but maybe buying that purchase with the$10 million, should they not break it up and want to do it all in one hit, so to speak, may not come to a city that they don't know readily already. Other factors will come in and to be involved is that let's say longer term, what are the wider taxation issues in each jurisdiction? I wouldn't even pick London and New York as the examples there, but I would say globally, what are we doing? How much tax are we going to incur? Probably another one there to bring into the table is that is there local borrowing available? I mentioned it previously, 10 minutes back or so, but if you come to London, it can be almost very straightforward for a Middle Eastern party to take a 70, 75% loan potentially. on real estate, residential real estate, I'll caveat that, on the ground here, which can be a little bit trickier for non-U.S. passport holders to come to New York and obtain a loan like that. It can be a little bit trickier. There's much fewer banks for non-U.S. passport holders, and if they don't have U.S. income to service that, that becomes even riskier for the banks, so it trims them all very hard down. So it may be the case that that$10 million in New York, for example, may have to be cash, that client, and they can pay that with their closing costs and everything. However, the$10 million in London could turn out to be a 20 million purchase, given if they can borrow a little bit more and service that loan. So it depends. We've got to look at it for its own merits as to what are the wider factors on this.

SPEAKER_01:

That's where you come in, because you know which banks will lend and how to structure that kind of a deal for a foreign national in New York.

SPEAKER_04:

Definitely. Maybe it's residential properties, often relatively quite straightforward, John. Commercial property takes a lot more thinking about in terms of structuring as well, which companies are held where, does it go to Delaware or elsewhere? So these are different issues. And again, there are structuring and legal and tax advisors, as you know, on the ground in the US who do a brilliant job of guiding on this. Whereas we'll guide you our best on the real estate with our partners like yourselves.

SPEAKER_01:

So when they come to you and they say, I'm considering New York and Boston and Miami, you've got agents in all of those places who have already familiar with this and can connect them with private bankers to get these deals done.

SPEAKER_04:

Especially, yes. And we'll do our best to provide the best possible service, whether it's not just the banking element, but it could be a legal element. They need a decent lawyer on the ground in the US. They need that tax advisor as well to make sure if they're holding it for 15, 20 years plus, they're not suddenly get hit with a huge tax bill. And perhaps that would ruin the entire prospect of the investment as well.

SPEAKER_01:

So while we were talking, I looked up flights, and I was pleased to see it's only$1,200 to fly direct to Dubai, nonstop, 12 hours,$1,200. That seems pretty reasonable. And I have a choice of three airlines. United Airlines offers New York City to Dubai, but Emirates offers flights from 12 cities, U.S. cities to Dubai, and Etihad Airways also 12 cities to Dubai, nonstop. Those are the nonstop flights. I've got to believe that that is a major influence, the cost and length of the flight, and the amount of choice and those 12 cities must be at the front of the line

SPEAKER_04:

for. I would feed into your picture the little snippet you're seeing there of Emirates Airline. I've spent a decade flying with Emirates and I will be on them on Sunday as well. Is that the 12 cities there won't just be for those expat residents and citizens of Dubai and the wider UAE. I know you mentioned Etihad down the road in Abu Dhabi. But those many of them may be stop off passengers coming from the entire eastern part of the world all the way down to Australia, potentially coming to the US. And they would choose Emirates as their airline of choice. But it will make a stopover flight often to refuel and restock and then move back onto the US. So they won't just be citizens and those living residents in the UAE. Those are actually a lot of them will be stopovers coming through Dubai and then coming on. So you might find the whole lots of Asia, for example, all the way down to Australia will come through Dubai and make that last stop off when they are coming to the US.

SPEAKER_01:

Is there a direct correlation between the growth of the Dubai airport and the number of flights and the number of passengers that are moving through Dubai and our real estate market in

SPEAKER_04:

America? I would also look at it both ways, is that if there is demand to go to a destination, any airline, from their home country will probably put a flight onto it. If there's enough to make it profitable and make it worthwhile, a flight route will be done. For example, we mentioned already the easiest flow of real estate investment from, let's take Dubai, for example, to London. There are currently, I believe, seven flights a day with Emirates, and they're putting on an eighth shortly. That's one airline. I can probably name you another seven airlines that are coming through on that same flight path. So that's London, Dubai is still, I understand, the busiest flight path on the planet. So there is a lot more to be done on these things. So it's a good correlation to look at, but I don't think it tells the entire picture of where perhaps your prospective clients are stopping off in Dubai and where they're actually coming on and going on

SPEAKER_02:

to. John, what was the business class cost of those flights?

SPEAKER_01:

It said$1,200 on Emirates into Dubai, and it was double that for the next city, Abu Dhabi,$2,300. And so that's sort of to my point that as they add efficiency and you can get the price down from$2,300 down to$1,200, you can make that trip many more times per year and you can do a lot more business in Dubai. And that must be driving real estate prices.

SPEAKER_04:

coming to those definitions. And I would also probably the better exercise, John, is what I would do is let's say, for example, at the end of this month. So we've got March coming up shortly. That's Ramadan. I would expect most of my clients from the Middle East to be at home in the Gulf at that time for the month where they're fasting. After that will come the Eid holiday. This is typically four or five days, perhaps all in where they might take some time out of work. I would look at the flight prices for the beginning of April. and see if it's the same price to New York. And therefore, you can already see if that airline, John, is expecting a big run or they've already had a big flow of bookings already coming to New York from the Middle East. That would tell a better story.

SPEAKER_01:

When I fly into Dubai, am I going to see big pictures of Henry Fawn in the airport and Knight Frank? Because you have already figured out that all the wealth moving through the Dubai airport, you want to get in front of it.

SPEAKER_04:

I agree. I think, John, in our private office team, we try to be a little bit more discreet with our clients than that.

SPEAKER_01:

Let's talk about that. Let's talk about the cultural difference. I mean, Roberto and I are also not currently purchasing billboards over I-95. You're right. We're trying to target a more discreet relationship with wealthy buyers who are trying to work more discreetly in these markets. So how do you get in front of them if you're not buying billboards in the Dubai airport?

SPEAKER_04:

I would say after... 12 years of working in the Middle East, John, that a lot of my best business these days is coming from referrals. So previous clients, it could be friends of them. It could often be family members. Many of them have large extended families, brothers, sisters, cousins, whatever it might be. And that's where my best business comes from. It's referrals from existing clients that I've traded with perhaps in the past or helped in terms of asset management. type positions. And that'll probably be always the case going ahead now, is that you can do a good job with one client, John, as you both well know. Certainly, your best referrer will be them.

SPEAKER_01:

Can you give me a case study of where one of these referrals connected with you and said, I'm interested in X city, and how did you service them, and what was the result? And what kind of a property did they

SPEAKER_04:

buy?

UNKNOWN:

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04:

Okay, so I've got a UAE family that I've worked with now for not that long, seven or eight years all in, which is in the grand scheme of things is not that long. But I've helped them now where I've met the son originally and then the father and then sisters and things. But we've helped them now in Dubai for trading of real estate, for valuation of real estate. We've helped them in London, in Paris now as well, in Italy, I'm pleased to say. They haven't made it to the US yet. But I think all in, we're in 30 or 40 different individual supporting pieces of business with one family, John. And we've given them the best service they possibly can do throughout. And they've clearly appreciated that. Another example would be a gentleman from another part of the region. I won't say where, but I was working with, again, several or eight years back, to buy one property for himself. And that's moved on to introductions to father, two sisters, who have now bought seven or eight properties here in London, in a very close localized area, part of London. And then we're assisting them with selling properties elsewhere in Europe, two or three across wider Europe. So the relationships expand quite well over time, as long as you're giving that good level of service, which is very important for any client, of course.

SPEAKER_01:

So London makes sense to me, but when somebody says, I'm looking at Italy and you don't have a lot of offices, perhaps in Italy and a lot of infrastructure there. So how did you provide great service for your Middle Eastern client looking in Italy?

SPEAKER_04:

Well, fortunately with the Knight Frank Network, we're pretty well serviced in Italy. We cover off a lot of it and certainly could service them in that case. In this example, they owned a hospitality and leisure asset in Italy as opposed to a home in that example. So yes, we certainly can help in most locations. We're very strong across the whole of Europe. If they were to look at the US, I would be on the phone to you both to see how perhaps we can align on this and take a look. That's what I'm talking about, Henry. Looking for the key expertise on the ground, is what I'm saying.

SPEAKER_02:

Is New York the primary destination that people are looking at?

SPEAKER_01:

And how is that changing? because Roberto has been talking to us about the New York market. And every month we ask him, what is your prospects for overseas investment, foreign investment? And it hasn't been great for the last couple of years, right? What's it been, Roberto? Well, 5%,

SPEAKER_04:

I'd estimate, of transactions in the contracts. 5%?

SPEAKER_02:

International, like investors? I mean, the investor market for us has been decimated ever since COVID. There's no, to buy something from an investment standpoint, even though rents are at all time highs, virtually, the calculus as an investment does not make sense as far as trying to, for you to cover your costs. It just doesn't make sense. You're buying something for your own personal usage or for capital appreciation into the future. Because right now the calculus, as far as an investment that's gonna generate income, it doesn't exist.

SPEAKER_04:

Well, I would suggest in terms of New York, I would put it in the same picture as you asked about London in the eyes of Middle East and India. Is it the first border court perhaps coming to the U.S.? New York may be the first border court, but certainly spreading out beyond there, depending on what educational family or holiday ties they've had from previous experience of the U.S.

SPEAKER_01:

Do you see that changing? Do you think that New York... See, Roberto is reminding us that there's a good buying opportunity in the New York market. New York's been down for several years, and we're starting to see... Well, we saw record rents in Manhattan last year, and a lot of those record rents, a lot of those people are now starting to get into the market. So we're early in the cycle. Are you seeing the same kind of interest coming out of the Middle East in New York that he's seeing domestically?

SPEAKER_04:

A little ongoing interest. Now, there'll always be discretionary buyers, John, in that case. They don't need to buy a flat in New York. They can always rent one and be part of that rental pool or just stay in a hotel or service department block longer term. I have seen more interest in Miami lately, specifically Miami Beach and some of the more luxury condo buildings that are on the beachfront there. There's brilliant buildings going up there of really good quality now. And there's been interest from the Middle East in that sort of product.

SPEAKER_01:

And what are the amenities that Middle Easterners are looking for? We've heard that some of these are focused on, for instance, attracting five-star chefs and Michelin chefs to their new development properties down in Miami, Palm Beach, and southern Florida. So... Or some like, I don't know, have car, where your car goes up in the elevator and, you know, that's important to you. Some of these are more private. Some of these have health clubs. So what are the amenities? Golf, right? Do Middle Easterners play golf?

SPEAKER_04:

All good questions there, John. I think I would suggest with privacy and security being of key importance throughout. And that's not a Miami-led point. That could be New York or London as well, really, or Dubai. privacy and security is still key throughout this. Certainly good quality finishing. So the actual fundamentals of what is being built there needs to be good quality. What the developer's putting together has to be very good and will last. As we all know here, there are some better quality products finishes and some slightly less quality products finishes. Going ahead, I don't feel that having a car on the lift is all that important that comes up to your apartment. From my experience, I think If there's a rush hour in the morning and there's only one car lift and there's 90 people that need to get their car out, that can create problems in some of these buildings. So I think probably a car on the lift may not be of so much importance, especially if you're only visiting for a couple of months a year. Maybe they'll book a driver, for example, and that might be a better use of time as opposed to having a car in the lift that day. Golf, perhaps. Paddle tennis, I think I would put above golf. That's key across the Middle East at the moment. All outdoor pursuits, whether it's cycling as well, certainly very nice, great cycling across the U.S. as well. Paddle tennis or pickleball? Paddle tennis? I'm going to be specific and say paddle tennis. Now, pickleball will be much larger, and you'll correct me on this, in the U.S. I'm going to come in with paddle tennis, which will be the other brother that's more bigger in Europe and the Middle East at the moment for now. And that may evolve into pickle later on. We'll see.

SPEAKER_01:

So if I develop a property in Southern Florida and I want to attract Middle Easterners, do I have to go at it specifically? Do I have to say, okay, what we've got is we're specifically going after the Middle East and we're going to provide you a better level of quality, a better level of security, a better level of privacy. And we think that if you want to come as a group, you're going to feel more comfortable here. I mean, our people targeting or making their development specifically and pitching middle eastern clients or are they just saying nope i'm just generally you know i think

SPEAKER_04:

the fair way to look at it is that that might be if you were only pitching to one type of clientele this is not middle eastern specific comment john this could be anywhere in the world but pitching to one specific type of client given that we know in that luxury end of real estate how broad the clientele can be Albeit at the moment in New York, less than 5% Roberto could be overseas buyers, but generally speaking, the buyers that may be there have come from different backgrounds. Some may be South American, some may have come from elsewhere. So generally speaking, I wouldn't necessarily pitch an entire project to try and cater for one type of person. But certainly if it's adaptable, has the right level of security, there's no high net worth in the world that won't appreciate security on their property, John, I would say. I'm

SPEAKER_01:

seeing the same thing. I'm not seeing new development targeted towards specific groups anymore. I see them very much saying we offer great food and we offer great amenities. And they're not specific toward Asia or toward the Middle East or toward Europe or toward South and Central America.

SPEAKER_04:

Agreed. And it opens up their clientele base for prospective buyers in a new project, John. Much, much more.

SPEAKER_02:

New York's an opportunity right now because we're really at the cusp of a more longer term rise. Nothing's going to spike like it did in the past, but we have really kind of bottomed and we're going to start to build from here, especially if the interest rates start to moderate even a bit. The market is so acutely sensitive to the move in the interest rate right now. But there's tremendous opportunity for

SPEAKER_04:

New York. Are there any small sub-markets and villages within New York, inside Manhattan, for example, Roberto, that you're seeing as good opportunities for, let's say, just investment or that capital appreciation, that long-term capital appreciation you mentioned there? Where are the good places now in Manhattan, can I ask?

SPEAKER_02:

They're just opportunities. I mean, you have to find them. They're just, they're spattered throughout. It's not necessarily... You can

SPEAKER_04:

pick it up per building or per property that comes up. You can say, that is a good deal. Let's have a look at it. Precisely. And that is a good case in point there, Roberto, why we need the key experts living and breathing on the ground in that real estate market to be able to give the right advice to our clients around the world. This is not Middle Eastern specific, but anybody coming to the US needs somebody who is there and they can pick up those deals. They say, no, I heard about this deal just last night. You need to come and have a look at it.

SPEAKER_02:

So to reverse the flow a little bit, of people going back to you, going into your region, Dubai is a little bit tight on inventory, is that right?

SPEAKER_04:

Dubai is building very, very well. It has been and has been selling very well across both local and overseas buyers for many years now. It's had a good run on the current market cycle for the five years post-COVID. It's had a really good run, I would say. The wider region is becoming more interesting as well, Roberto.

SPEAKER_02:

When I think of investing, the only thing that I would think of is Dubai. But aside from that, I wouldn't necessarily, it seems like it's dominating the narrative of the Middle East, is that it's Dubai. It's not even Abu Dhabi. It's not, you know, Oman. It's not, you know, Riyadh.

SPEAKER_04:

How are those... I would suggest perhaps for the time being, Roberto, the... density of hotels of those high-end restaurants of that luxury shopping districts of the beach clubs is all in dubai and that makes it very straightforward for those coming to the wider region say look where can we go where's easy to set up a business tomorrow morning if i need to move my family office and have a base of my family office there if i need a villa if i need good education for my children there's a phenomenal amount of decent schools in dubai However, the wider region, there are opportunities at Abu Dhabi, of course. Certainly there. It doesn't get the same spotlight. We'll all agree here. Even you'll see this from the U.S. press on the Middle East, that Abu Dhabi won't have got the same spotlight. But there is a fantastic place and opportunities to be had in Abu Dhabi. And if a family were looking from the U.S. to look and come work in the UAE specifically, I would suggest Abu Dhabi really needs to be a strong consideration for them, not necessarily just considering Dubai.

SPEAKER_02:

What about Riyadh? How is that different? I mean, to me... This is so, I'm blind to all of this and very unfamiliar. So I'm just curious.

SPEAKER_04:

Saudi Arabia is a much bigger country. Even geographically here, we can see on John's map and population-wise, normally much bigger. So I would suggest that Riyadh is the capital, as you mentioned that. Certainly some great opportunities there. At the moment, you would have to live there and have a localized visa, buy a property to live in. So the three of us on this call would have to be living there with a local iqama to purchase real estate there. Now, what has been talked about, and this has been talked about for several years now, and it looks very much like it is coming in the near future, and this will be something I will be on the phone to you both about in the near future, I'm sure, is that there may be some opening up of those laws. So as we know, with any new real estate market, when the laws change to open up overseas investments, that creates very good opportunities for both short-term and longer-term capital growth, depending on what you're looking to buy into. We are very much working with many of the local very high-end great product developers at the moment in Riyadh to make sure we're fully aligned for both local transactions within Saudi to Saudi at the moment in Riyadh, but also if the law changes, we are set up and ready to go around the global network, whether it's investors coming from Europe here in London or perhaps yourselves from the US or elsewhere, that we can support with investments into the kingdom when the time comes, because it hopefully will be at some point in the near future. So

SPEAKER_02:

the value proposition in Riyadh is potentially larger.

SPEAKER_04:

Potentially, there's a good opportunity there for a long-term capital growth. There's great growth to be had in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Of course, we know that. However, at the moment, there's no possibility for the three of us to buy an apartment whilst living in London in the US, for example. However, that may come. And therefore, there is more to be done in terms of starting from a lower base and working our way up. as a market opens up. That might be a good opportunity. If you've got clients in the U.S. looking for something new, this may be something of interest to them.

SPEAKER_02:

Is there a way to invest in that, for example, though? Someone has a fund who's investing in the real estate in the region and you can participate in that way?

SPEAKER_04:

Of course. If there's a fund already existing in the U.S. that looks at different opportunities, perhaps they would take a branch of an office or set up a localized company in Saudi Arabia. and invest through that company. It

SPEAKER_01:

looks like it's got modern infrastructure. I mean, we've all seen,

SPEAKER_04:

we're all familiar with it. And this is very much how it looks these days, gentlemen. You can scroll through lots of these images of the various business districts, the high-rise areas. I doubt that Lake may not be that, maybe Jeddah. But these areas that are coming through here look phenomenal and some very good quality real estate there. I would even suggest, gentlemen, I've been to a marketing suite there for a residential-led scheme, albeit it's got commercial, it's got mixed-use assets in it. But one of the best marketing suites in the world that I've seen is over in Riyadh at the moment. And given what we've seen in New York, we see in London every day and elsewhere in the world, that's quite a big statement in terms of a marketing suite for a developer with some very good quality things coming. So I've got full belief and backing for Saudi Arabia for the future.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, this is very exciting.

SPEAKER_02:

I mean. The Americans, though, that you see who are investing in any form are really going to Dubai at the moment.

SPEAKER_04:

Correct. I have been now. There's a couple of reasons. There are many more British in Dubai and the wider region at the moment simply because should we step outside of the UK and earn income overseas, we don't have to pay tax on that income versus if you're a US passport holder, we all know you have to file your tax returns after a certain level of wealth. Therefore, there is no huge benefit for salary-wise. You can rebase yourself from New York to Miami, as we already discussed, but basing yourself from New York to Dubai will not perhaps benefit them at all. They'll still be paying their local taxes in the U.S. So we have seen Americans coming over, potentially more so looking at taking chunks of funds or otherwise investments there, but not necessarily buying too many second homes. There are many buyers of them. I'm not saying en masse they're showing up and buying second homes all over the place.

SPEAKER_02:

So there's no fear of overbuilding in these places?

SPEAKER_04:

I couldn't say it's overbuilding. Now, Dubai's building in line with the supplier. They're selling it. Roberto, and you probably picked this up on your previous podcast with my colleagues. So it's being absorbed. It's being absorbed. When there is a new launch, sometimes it can go in one day. We launched one at the end of last year, end of 2024. We sold out more than 1,000 units, but something similar to that, in about two days. We probably could have got it done in one day. Now, these things move quickly. Of the right quality product from the right developer, it is being absorbed. But again, I would say this is not a Dubai-specific comment, gentlemen, but all markets in the world, whether it's London or the US or Dubai or elsewhere, do have market cycles. And sometimes they're a little bit busier, or they could be like New York, as we mentioned at the moment, that's starting from a lower base now, and there's good capital appreciation to be had right now, we think.

SPEAKER_02:

1,000 units in two days. Yeah, that can be done. That's impressive.

SPEAKER_01:

Let's get back to the politics. You talked about at the top of the hour how there's suddenly, since the election, tremendous excitement and new investment. And so what could disrupt that? What what what's feeding that and what could disrupt it? It occurs to me that I might say, well, it's political stability. It might be. Is it drill, baby drill comments where, you know, there's a renewed interest in an oil based economy, carbon based economy? I mean, what's driving this and what could

SPEAKER_04:

be from a historical look backwards in time, John? Historical ties have been creating a war. We'll all agree that. perhaps supply of weapons and security. That's been a big part of the wider security of the region. It's come from the U.S., of course. And certainly with the Trump administration, I expect that to be the energy of all of those things to be renewed. I've no doubt about that. And Trump has many strong relationships, as we already discussed, with Saudi Arabia, but across the wider region as well. So I think that that renewed energy, that renewed vigor for the U.S. certainly could come through for many different factors. But yes, certainly those you mentioned there are of key importance.

SPEAKER_01:

It seems to me, tell me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me just a spirit of deregulation that, I mean, even though you've got drill baby drill comments, you also have as a senior member of the administration, Elon Musk, who's very much into solar and electric cars. So I think the Middle East is saying what we like is the fact that there's a spirit of deregulation and where we can compete.

SPEAKER_04:

No, I agree. I wouldn't take it away from the Middle East if you're suggesting that an oil-based economy won't be too favorable of solar-based or wind-based farms or more renewable sources. The Middle East are huge investors into renewable sources. They are diversifying their economies, economies across the Middle East, I'm saying plural there, away from oil-based, oil-derived incomes streams as well, and investing heavily into renewable sources. And you might find many of those huge solar projects are popping up here in the Middle East. The Middle East has plenty of sunshine, gentlemen, throughout the year. sometimes a little bit too much in the summer months. So I think there are definitely other channels to be explored across the region.

SPEAKER_01:

How about education? Is that still the main reason for wealthy Middle Eastern families exploring their options in wealthy American markets? Is it still the number one

SPEAKER_04:

reason? That would still be one of the main reasons, John. And it might also be the initial reason, but if they've got a couple of children that are looking at higher education in particular, perhaps they may have lower education, either locally in the region or in London or similar, and they're looking at that university level degree, the US has got to come as part of that conversation in terms of what are they looking at in terms of business prospects for the future, in terms of generating a fantastic network of friends and potential colleagues for the future could come from some of the brilliant international education establishments across the U.S., not necessarily New York or Boston, isn't that? It could be elsewhere. But that will certainly be one of the leading factors. Education is fantastic in the U.S., as we all know.

SPEAKER_01:

And who else is,

SPEAKER_02:

go ahead. Sorry, is safety ever, I mean, for New York, safety is an issue. And if anything, it's safer than what the narrative is, but it's still, it's a big factor that, you know, when crime starts to rise, you know, people don't want to come.

SPEAKER_01:

It's a rising factor in my market out here in the suburbs as well. It's showing up in the top three for the first time in years as a reason that people are picking this community versus that community.

SPEAKER_04:

I would suggest safety is not necessarily a U.S.-based comment. I think that's a global comment at the moment. Now, on the flip end of it, if we took one end of parts of U.S. and Europe may be perceived to be less safe at times. I would say probably some of the safest places on the world you could be right now would even be Dubai or Abu Dhabi. And why do you? I'm very confident to say we could take my wallet out whilst we're having a coffee somewhere and put it on the sidewalk and leave it there for an hour whilst we have our coffee and we can watch people pass it. And

SPEAKER_02:

it won't be tough. Not here. That would be a very short

SPEAKER_04:

conversation. Any of the big cities that we just mentioned there, that would be a problem. So I can assure you now that what we're coming from is a huge level of safety in Dubai. So any market around the world will be perceptibly less safe. Now, I think most of my clients these days, typically if they're coming to London, I'll use that as my example here today, won't necessarily be wearing their best, most fancy watch. Or if they're going out for dinner, won't be wearing all of the diamond earrings or necklaces or otherwise and dressing up. There's no need to. Most of my clients these days, if I catch them in London for a coffee, they'll be with an Apple watch these days and dress down as modestly. And that's just how it is. And I think that's a very similar picture. And you can correct me if I'm wrong, but on the streets in New York, if they're visiting over there, unless they're traveling with private security, which can be the case, and they might have a few people around them, there's no need to dress up like this. Just be relaxed and dress down as you wish. And that's not because there's low security necessarily in London or New York. That's just how the world is. these days. And as we all know, is that when there's a division of wealth, where you've got very, very wealthy and less wealthy in the same locations, these are the sort of things that come up. That street level crime is what does come up. And this is a global issue that's not been around. And I would say also that it may be that there's a small increase in crime in some of these key cities, Roberto, which you're highlighting there. But also what's different is that crime's always been there. There's always been crime in all of these cities. It's just these days, we all have social media and telephone somebody's filmed it and put it online in 10 seconds which wasn't there even eight years ago probably wasn't there to do it that quickly and therefore the little bits of crime that may be there are now blown up into much bigger issues than they were even if it's a small increase roberto it is my personal scope on this and certainly most of my clients these days choose when they come overseas anywhere u.s and europe included in that uh just to dress more moderately and not be flashing too many things. And that seems to be the case.

SPEAKER_02:

Would you say that Riyadh and some of these other cities are equally safe in comparison to Dubai?

SPEAKER_04:

It's very safe across the Gulf. Remarkably so. And I would welcome you to come and visit a few of these cities with me and experience this for yourself and see how it is. It's a very interesting setup that the governments have achieved on the ground in these countries. That's great. albeit tackling in some cases much smaller populations, Roberto, is how I would caveat that. And therefore, it's easier to manage a smaller population as we know.

SPEAKER_02:

Understood. Yeah.

SPEAKER_04:

Makes sense.

SPEAKER_01:

I guess so we're almost done. I think what we should do is get a couple words, a kind of a conclusion or wrap up or where you see the future going. But while you're thinking about what the crystal ball is, I have to just say, I loved this show. Roberto and I have been doing this for five years. For five years, we're picking the most interesting markets in the world. For a long time, that was looking at Miami and New York and the Hamptons. And you know what? I am so glad that we have connected with you, the expert in the Middle East, because increasingly it's becoming important for a top New York agent like Roberto to have a relationship with a top Middle East expert like Henry. I hope the people who are watching this, who have learned something about the Middle East and Middle Easterners investments in the US, I hope they reach out to you, Henry, and find you after they see this and feel that they can call you and say, listen, I have a property that you should be aware of, or I have a client who's looking to invest in your area. I hope they'll call you, Roberto. I mean, I know to find you at robertocarrera.com. What?

SPEAKER_04:

But I'm watching, John. I'm sure they can reach me. If not, reach out to one of you two gentlemen, and I'm sure you can link us together.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, so I just think that this is becoming more and more important as the world gets a whole lot smaller and we're finding that we're talking to a lot of the same people who have multiple properties in multiple markets and they're working with a trusted advisor. So I'm just so glad that we connected with you on this show. We learned a little bit more about the emerging Riyadh market, the Abu Dhabi market. already know of. And we basically blew away some of the misconceptions about why are the Middle Easterners investing in the US? Is it oil-based? Not entirely. Is it education-based? Not entirely. Some of those stereotypes are crumbling and they're coming for a lot, a greater variety of reasons to a greater variety of properties. So now give me that crystal ball.

SPEAKER_04:

Where are we going

SPEAKER_01:

now? I

SPEAKER_04:

think with the themes that we already highlighted, the new administration coming in is very positive. in the outlook for wider relation, whether it's government-led, which we already highlighted in some of the big headline investments, and trickling down to individuals and families on the ground, buying individual direct investments in real estate, or perhaps buying into US-led funds as well. That's something we haven't touched on as part of this podcast, but that is a key topic across the Middle East where a fund is managing already a portfolio of real estate. So I would suggest over the coming term, that is, I would hope, only an upward trending item to watch.

SPEAKER_02:

Excellent. Thank you so much, Henry. Really, real pleasure.

SPEAKER_04:

Very nice to

SPEAKER_01:

see you both.

SPEAKER_04:

I

SPEAKER_02:

look forward

SPEAKER_04:

to speaking with you both soon.

SPEAKER_01:

Thank you, Henry. And when are we going to get to see the next wealth report?

SPEAKER_04:

That will be in March, 5th of March, off the top of my head. I believe it's here in London and then hopefully very, very shortly afterwards with Roberto in York, I think. Off the top of my head. We're going to track down Liam Bailey. I don't know if that's confirmed yet, gentlemen, so it'll come through in due course, I'm sure.

SPEAKER_01:

And so will you join us and Liam to talk about-

SPEAKER_04:

I will need to be in London and then doing a Middle Eastern based launch shortly after. But I've no doubt many of my colleagues here on the floor here with me will be over with you in York.

SPEAKER_01:

Excellent.

SPEAKER_04:

All right.

SPEAKER_01:

Thanks so much. Thank

SPEAKER_04:

you

SPEAKER_01:

so much.

SPEAKER_04:

Thank you. See you, Johnny.

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