Jobs, Politics, Inflation, and Confidence

In this week’s episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to explore the macroeconomic themes shaping global markets.

Topics covered include:

• United Kingdom: Fiscal deterioration comes into focus as speculation builds over how the Chancellor will address the public finances in the autumn budget. The prospect of sharp growth downgrades and pressure on the Bank of England to accelerate rate cuts.
• Europe & Japan: Political uncertainty in France and Japan, and its potential market implications. Eurozone inflation, retail sales, and the latest ECB commentary.
• United States: A pivotal week with ISM surveys and, most importantly, the labour market. JOLTS, ADP, and non-farm payrolls will dominate the macro narrative, with unemployment at critical levels for both markets and the Fed.
• Emerging Markets: Inflation updates across multiple EM economies and a potential policy cut from Poland.
• Weekend Outlook: A packed sporting calendar from Premier League football and the Women’s Rugby World Cup to Formula 1’s Dutch Grand Prix.

Why it matters:
This week’s data releases — particularly US payrolls — carry significant weight for monetary policy expectations and global market sentiment. With fiscal headwinds mounting in the UK and political risks rising in Europe and Japan, investors face a complex backdrop where growth, inflation, and policy paths remain tightly interlinked.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.