2026 Begins with Inflation, the Fed, and the Labour Market

In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead podcast by Eurizon SLJ Capital, host Matt Jones speaks with Senior Portfolio Manager Neil Staines about the global macroeconomic outlook for 2026 and the key market drivers shaping the year ahead.

The discussion explores expectations for continued disinflation following 2025, the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and interest rate expectations, and the implications for global markets. Neil outlines why this environment may remain broadly supportive for equities and bonds, while the US dollar faces relative pressure, particularly against Asian currencies.

The episode focuses on four core macro themes for 2026: inflation trends and emerging price risks; credit spreads following significant compression in 2025; equity market drivers, including AI capital expenditure and monetisation; and global bond market dynamics such as fiscal policy, central bank independence, and supply–demand imbalances.

Looking ahead to the week, the conversation highlights key economic data releases, with a strong emphasis on global inflation data across major developed and emerging economies, alongside critical US indicators including ISM surveys, labour market data, and non-farm payrolls. The episode concludes with a brief look at weekend sporting fixtures and the hosts’ long and short picks as 2026 gets underway.

 00:00 Introduction and Welcome
 00:46 Global Macro Outlook for 2026
 01:43 Key Macro Themes: Inflation, Credit, Equities, and Bonds
 03:17 Global Inflation Data and Economic Releases
 04:42 US Economic Data, the Fed, and Labour Markets
 07:34 Weekend Sports Highlights
 08:21 Long and Short Picks for 2026
 08:40 Conclusion and Closing Remarks 

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.