From China’s Two Sessions to US Payrolls: A Consequential Week Ahead

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a global macro backdrop where markets appear calm at the headline level but show significant divergence underneath, including record-high equity dispersion, private credit uncertainty despite tight spreads, and varied European inflation and growth dynamics alongside flat ECB rate expectations. They preview a busier week of data: Australia’s inflation gauge, GDP and trade (watched for expectations of one more RBA hike); Europe’s February CPI, unemployment, retail sales, and final manufacturing and services PMIs; and China’s “Two Sessions,” including growth targets and the 15th five-year plan. They also flag CPI releases across multiple emerging markets. In the US, focus is on ISM manufacturing and services, the Beige Book, ADP, and Friday payrolls, where a surprise could have an outsized market impact.

00:00 Welcome and Introductions
00:27 Calm Markets Hidden Divergence
02:14 Key Global Data Week Ahead
03:48 US Data and Payrolls Focus
05:25 Weekend Watch Sports Picks
06:14 Long and Short Takeaways
06:33 Closing and Disclosures

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