Holding the Line: Inflation Risks, Weak Growth, and the Policy Dilemma

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead after a volatile week for central banks and markets amid uncertainty around the Iran situation. In the UK, the Bank of England held rates, struck a more hawkish tone with a 9–0 vote, and stressed inflation risks from elevated energy prices, though growth vulnerability and rising unemployment risks keep a high bar for hikes and support an ultimately needed, delayed rate-cut path; upcoming UK CPI and retail sales are key. Globally, the ECB, SNB, Riksbank, and Bank of Canada also held rates while balancing upside inflation and downside growth risks; the Bank of Japan stayed on a hawkish path; and the RBA hiked to 4.1%. Next week features global flash PMIs, Aussie CPI, German IFO, and ECB commentary. In the US, the Fed held rates with mildly dovish projections but a hawkish press conference; attention turns to Trump, risk assets, oil, Treasuries, and eased big-bank capital requirements.

00:00 Show Intro
00:27 UK Outlook BoE
02:36 Global Central Banks
04:32 Week Ahead Data
05:23 US After FOMC
07:28 Weekend Sports Talk
08:15 Long And Short Picks
08:30 Wrap Up And Disclosures

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