2026 Canyons 100K Preview | Analysis, Storylines, Predictions

Finn Melanson, Brett Hornig, and Leah Yingling provide in-depth analysis, commentary, and predictions for the competition at the 2026 Canyons 100K.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

All right, we are back. This is the 2026 Canyons 100K preview. We'll also talk a little bit at the end around the 50K and 100 mile races as well. But joined here by friends, colleagues, Brett Hornig, Lee Yingling. Brett, how are you doing tonight? Then you missed the beige memo.

SPEAKER_02 0:20

Yeah. Come on.

SPEAKER_00 0:24

Oh, we're doing good. I'm uh I love these preview episodes because it really forces me to take like a real deep dive into you know everything about the race, and it always reignites the fire and like the excitement in me as a fan. So I'm excited to talk about it. How about you, Leah?

SPEAKER_02 0:43

Yeah, I'm good over here. I really wish I could be out at Canyons this year. It's such a fun one to spectate and be a part of, but yeah, I'm gonna be on the East Coast in Pennsylvania running my own little 50K in my hometown. So excited for that.

SPEAKER_01 0:57

Okay. I have a question for it could be for either one of you. I was trying to think about Canyons two years ago. And correct me if I'm wrong, and I know that high-carb fueling has existed for like a really long time and it predates that year's Canyons, but I, for whatever reason, remember that Canyons as the event that sort of made it mainstream in our sport and like the public consciousness around it blew up because Rod had a great race, wrote a blog post about it, gave all the credit to Vic Johnson, and then it just like explodes. Am I remembering that correctly? Was that was that was that like the was Canyons the like the kickoff for like mainstream consciousness?

SPEAKER_04 1:39

Hmm.

SPEAKER_00 1:40

Maybe at least out on the Western states course. I mean, it helped because that was the last year that we talked about canyons as a golden ticket race being a bad idea because I have in my notes for the 2025 notes. Don't talk about Canyons golden ticket race being a bad idea because it's fine now. And maybe, maybe that also plays into it. It's like we were still harping on like why is Katie running Canyons right now? Why is Rod, why are they running this so good? And then all of a sudden they do really good at Western States. So maybe that played into it.

SPEAKER_02 2:13

Yeah, I think I I agree with you, Finn. I feel like it was one of the impetuses of the high-carb fueling kind of getting more mainstream and on the main stage. But I think, yeah, it was largely what Brett said too. If we saw these two incredible performances at Canyons, then double down at Western States. And it was like, oh, is this a pipeline? Uh two great great days of Western states.

SPEAKER_00 2:38

100K is just a tune-up distance now.

SPEAKER_02 2:42

It is, I was actually thinking about this this weekend because if you think back like 10 plus years ago in the Western States, uh kind of like a lineup of races that people would do, like 50 milers were the thing. Cause I was kind of lamenting the fact that Lake Sonoma 50 miler, it this weekend became a 50K and 100K uh race. And that used to be a great opportunity to run 50 miles before Western states. But what we're seeing happening more is people are running 100K in April as their tune up for Western states, which years ago when we started talking about this, like Brett said, we said this was kind of a bad idea, but now it's completely mainstream.

SPEAKER_01 3:21

Oh, yeah. I mean, I remember when the year Katie first won UTMB, she raced, I think Val Duran 100K seven weeks before. That was like, oh, is that a dice roll? And she's like, no, that is exactly part of the plan, and it worked. Um okay. One other new thing that I want to introduce is prediction accountability. So we've been doing these, we've been doing these previews for years now. I don't know if this is like our fourth or fifth year on Keynes, but it's it's been a bit. I'm going back to last year's picks, and guys, we actually did okay. Leah, you did the best. That's probably not going to surprise a lot of people. Fucker. Uh I've got our winners on both sides, and I've also got our course record predictions. Leah, you hit you hit the nail on the head. Emily Hoggood for the win.

SPEAKER_02 4:01

I said that.

SPEAKER_01 4:03

You said you said Leah said Emily Hoggood for the win, and you nailed it. So you were Rod and Emily. Brett, you were Rod and Mary Ann. So you were close with Mary Ann. I was Jeff McGavro and Jasmine Louther, so I was off. We all had Francesco Poopy finishing in second. Brett and I both had Emily Hoggood in second. We all thought the women were going to run closer to 930. Emily Hoggood ran 946. And then we all correctly predicted a men's course record, but we thought it was going to be closer to 815, 820, and not 804. And then also, none of us had Hans Troyer even in our top fives.

SPEAKER_02 4:40

Wow. Okay.

SPEAKER_00 4:41

Yeah, that was like the huge miss for me that I'm looking at my 2025 picks. It's like, I didn't put Hans in my top five.

SPEAKER_02 4:51

We always get lit up to when we don't put Hans in our top five. So lessons learned.

SPEAKER_01 4:58

A lot changes in a year. Like it's unfathomable not to consider Hans now. Yeah. So I don't know. Crazy. Just go. We did okay though. I give us like I get as a group, I give us like a B. And Leah, maybe like a B plus. Like that was pretty good. We're getting better. Nice.

SPEAKER_02 5:16

I don't know. Some races we really, we really miss it.

SPEAKER_01 5:20

Yeah. I mean, I picked against Courtney at Bandera four years ago. So Yeah, never forget it. Never lived that one down. It can't get worse than that. Norda is the official footwear partner of the Single Track podcast, and I want to talk to you today about their 002 model engineered for precision through technical terrain due to that pyramidal midsole geometry that promotes confident footing in technical environments. It's also the shoe choice of the great Rachel Entricken. Go check it out, NordaRun.com. SingleTrack is also brought to you by Precision Fuel and Hydration, the official nutrition partner of the show. Here is the situation. Over the next few weeks, I am introducing longer runs into my rotation for a few bigger projects on my summer list. We're talking four, five, six hour outings. And one of my go-to products in the field will be Precision's 300 gram flow gel pouches. That's 10 of their standard PF30 gels in a single resealable pouch. It makes carrying a lot of nutrition really straightforward, really simple. Oh, the other thing, it's it's basically it's the same gel, but re-engineered to flow more easily without adding more water. So sometimes I'll bring their flow gel bottles with me too, and I'll put 120 grams-ish in each, and it makes hourly consumption super easy to track too. Anyways, above all else, go to Precision's website, check out their fuel and hydration planner. I have a link for it in our show notes, and that is going to get you squared away planning wise for your next big race, too. And if you end up uh getting some product, feel free to use code SINGLETRACK for a nice discount at checkup. Okay, Leah, for you, if you have to pick like one overarching storyline that is exciting you about this race, what comes to mind?

SPEAKER_02 7:04

Maybe it's less of a storyline that's ex it's that's exciting me, more just an observation. But the women's race for the 100K here doesn't feel as compelling as some of the other golden ticket races. And I don't know, Brett, we were all chatting about this today, trying to understand it a little bit more. And I don't know if it's a lot of the race saturation this time of year is taking away some of the competition at a race like Canyons. Um, or if people like have gone for a golden ticket once or twice a season and have kind of said, okay, I'm done if I don't get it at X race. But we're just not seeing as many of those people who missed it a time or two early in the season lining up at this one. So feels a little underwhelming. However, I think it's a great opportunity for some new faces to really make a splash on the women's side. I think this race, especially given that it's a three golden ticket race, um, I could see this rolling down to like five, five or six at a race like this.

SPEAKER_00 8:04

I wrote down almost the same interesting storyline. I said the random baller alarms are ringing as the door is wide open with three golden tickets on the line for the for the women's race. Because uh we we've actually, I mean, I've been paying attention to the elite women's entry list for like six weeks now, and it's changed a lot. Um there it at one point it was looking to be mega stacked, and a a lot of those runners that were contributing to the stackedness of that race were already in Western states, and I think we've seen a lot of them just choose to do different races. But usually that gets other people signed up just for the sake of competition, and it's almost like it's been forgotten that there's three golden tickets here at this race.

SPEAKER_01 9:06

Two things from me. One, to your point, Brett, I like, for example, Terry Dower was on the start list at one point. Love watching Terra Race. I'm excited she's off of it because I want her to clear the deck for Western. And then, I mean, she's obviously gonna do the hard rock double. So, but to have her coming into Western, like no questions asked, totally fresh, uninterrupted training block between this Gorge 50k and Western, like amazing. And then yeah, Leah, like Brett and I were talking earlier um when we were recording a CP episode, and I thought, I mean, it's interesting that again, there's like a larger list now of like the greatest of the grades in our sport, but like Courtney's not planning to do Western, Katie's not planning to do Western, Ruth is not planning to do Western, um, Rachel Entrickin. So, like, there's four of like the dominant female athletes in the sport right now who like their pathway is not to Western this year. So, like the the pool of people that even want to do it is just maybe it's is it is it lower than it has been in previous years? I don't know, but like that's interesting to me.

SPEAKER_02 10:05

I was thinking about that a lot today on my run, too, because Madeira is the same weekend as Canyons, and Madeira is attracting a really fun group on the women's side this year. You mentioned Jasmine at the top of this episode, and she was somebody who was kind of chasing another golden ticket at Canyons just last year here, and she's racing Madeira. And so I think we're seeing a lot of those more like mountain-specific athletes that would be like really fun to see at Western states opting for what I would consider a much more fun, a little bit more desirable uh kind of destination race uh compared to somebody like compared to Canyons.

SPEAKER_00 10:40

Do you think there's any of that? Like, if I didn't get my golden ticket prior to I don't know, Tarawera or Black Canyon, I'm not gonna go chase it at Canyons because there's like there's some things about Canyons that are not so fun when you take out the golden ticket part, like 2 a.m. bus ride to China Wall, forests of poison oak.

SPEAKER_02 11:06

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 11:07

That sort of thing. And it's like you gotta and there's there's been people who like people have missed western states or come into western states severely undertrained because they've had to recover from oak poisoning.

SPEAKER_01 11:21

Yeah. Yep. Uh and then 17,000 feet of descending over 63 miles. Like you get that at CCC, and that's like the only other like similar stimulus on this golden ticket circuit. So that's yeah, but physically it's not a bad idea anymore to do six weeks out. Old science. Okay, my storyline is uh is a developing one. It involves Western states, but it is uh Hayden Hawks being like a relatively late entrant to this list and uh making Western States a focal point this year. He's one of the very best of his generation. He's one of the very best trail mountain 100K runners of this era, two CCC wins, two Black Canyon wins. Um he's won the Canyons 50K. And basically, as far as I'm concerned, he's he's just lacking that signature win at Western States. Like he's he's one of the best to have never won it. And I like my storyline here is just like him getting back to Western States, hopefully. Um, because he's I mean, again, I never know what to think about Age anymore, but he's like 35, 36 years old. Like um, he's probably on the back half of his prime. So like the the clock is ticking to like time is not like Brett. Same with your OTQ quest next year. Like clock is ticking. Yeah, clock is ticking.

SPEAKER_00 12:45

And winning Western states. The clock is ticking. Finn, I thought you were gonna tangent into something else when you're talking about Hayden Hawks. And I thought you were gonna say Miller versus Hawks. Well, is that your storyline? No, it is now because you just got me thinking about it because you said like Hayden Hawks is a relatively late entrant. And I was like, well, you know who's a later entrant? Zach Miller. And then I was like, oh my God, Miller versus Hawks.

SPEAKER_02 13:13

Two how cool would that be to see from Roby Point down into Auburn just what's that 10 years later?

SPEAKER_01 13:22

Yeah, 10 years later. Oh my gosh. I would I think Zach is 2-0 in that matchup, too. So Hayden's got to get one on the board. And then I mean Hayden versus Adam is an amazing matchup too. Like, you know, I think Adam won Western, but then Hayden won CCC.

SPEAKER_00 13:38

We need Jim Mill down there on a GoPro.

SPEAKER_01 13:41

We do.

SPEAKER_00 13:43

To make this happen. Oh my gosh.

SPEAKER_01 13:45

Okay, before I missed the obvious storyline, what was gonna be your storyline?

SPEAKER_00 13:50

What for me? Yeah, mine was the the the golden ticket race on the women's side being like very wide open and how with how difficult it is to find the entrance list, like the full entrance list of canyons, there's a very good chance that more than one of these golden tickets goes to someone we don't talk about in this episode.

SPEAKER_02 14:13

Yeah. I would like to highlight that the UTMB by UTMB interface for athletes, entrance lists who aren't on the elite side, it's very difficult for a race like this. And there's a variety of reasons why, like a woman, for example, might not have an elite UTMB index. They're coming back from a pregnancy or just haven't been in the game for a while, a few people that are not on the elite women's lists, like when you look at the Canyons by UTMB, where um people like Marcy Klimack, Megan Roach, who I don't believe is running any longer, Claire Gallagher, um, people who like very well should be on the elite entrance list, but you have to go digging for it. And the way you have to go digging for it is you have to filter by nationality and like sex in order to find the list. And when you do that for American men, it says the list is too long and we can't present it to you. Okay So even more difficult to find the full men's entrance list.

SPEAKER_01 15:09

When do they start free? Because didn't the policy just change where they'll freeze the index score? Does that happen starting this year?

SPEAKER_02 15:16

Starting this year, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 15:17

Okay, okay. As frozen indefinitely or for it's five years, is it?

SPEAKER_02 15:24

I believe so. I need to look at the specifics from the PTRA, but they did just publish that in the last couple months.

unknown 15:29

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 15:30

Yeah, you're right. Indefinitely doesn't really actually make much sense. I would take it. I mean, there'd be like people whose uh just rankings are just towards the top for literal ever.

SPEAKER_02 15:42

When they had a baby 15 years ago.

SPEAKER_01 15:44

Yeah, exactly. Okay. Let's talk, let's do uh course analysis. Um maybe starting with you, Brett. Like when you think about this course, you think about, you know, what needs to be overcome to be successful here. What comes to mind?

SPEAKER_00 15:59

So I guess the first thing is um, as far as I know, there are no changes to the course from last year. So we're gonna get the same course again, which is slightly shorter than 2024. And then 2023, they had to do the uh the low elevation reroute with all sorts of loops and stuff. So we'll at least have back-to-back courses to look at in terms of paying attention to splits and stuff. Um what I've learned about this course is that if you're not in it to win it, when you're coming back up, so the race starts, you go down China Wall, it's a big descent, you climb up to Devil's Thumb, you descend down to swinging bridge, which that's the steepest climb of Western states. You get to swinging bridge, you turn around and you come straight back up. What I've learned is that if you're not in it to win it, coming up that climb, which is like what, 14 miles or 12 miles into the race, you're not gonna win the race. Because there was a big split that happened, I think it was last year, and a whole bunch of people hesitated. Uh, cause there's also a lot of out. It's uh kind of relatively early out and back, and it's really steep. So you have to be really paying attention coming down and coming up and not getting lost with the group. And you can't get left there because it that's just how our racing works now, where enough people are not gonna die.

SPEAKER_01 17:28

Well, yeah, I I think Rod made the move uh it was like mile 10 on the climb up swinging bridge, and the only person to cover it was Drew. And then they just kept like a I think it was like a five-minute gap the rest of the race. It was bait that that was the separation from 10 to the finish.

SPEAKER_00 17:44

Which is wild because it's it's so much racing after that, but it almost kind of seems like if if you don't start slowing down after Forest Hill, you're probably you're probably not gonna slow down, even though there's still a lot of running left.

SPEAKER_01 17:59

Um Leo, what do you think? I meant 24 by the way. Sorry. Rod and Drew were 24.

unknown 18:05

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 18:07

Something that has interested me as I've been going through People's Strava for this race preview is like vert matters for canyons. I know it is net downhill in the second half of the race, but you really pound your quads in the beginning. That opening descent is eight miles and you lose over 2,500 feet. And it's that's the first hour of the race, is just hammering downhill. So you have to be somebody who can hammer downhill hard, but preserve your quads in the process in order to run fast later. And I don't think there's enough runners in this field who probably have the quad resilience that's required to kind of persist later on.

SPEAKER_00 18:51

Yeah, yep, definitely. And you do most of that first descent in the dark.

unknown 18:56

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 18:56

And and no one goes dark speeds. They're going daylight speeds on that first descent. So you kind of just have to risk it a little bit.

SPEAKER_02 19:06

Yeah. I'm looking at Katie Scheid's uh opening splits from when she ran uh just two years ago. And I mean, her first mile was like low six minute pace. So yeah, six minutes to six, six ten or so. And she proceeded to run right around seven minute pace for that opening eight miles, but that's fast. And especially when like there's some technicality at times, but it it's rather rather smooth.

SPEAKER_00 19:31

Yeah, that's that's super tricky. That yeah, you just you like have to be ready to ball as soon as the gun goes off, which is tricky because you're probably taking a bus to the start, and like you gotta get out and go to the bathroom and warm up and and also not get cold because I don't know how much stuff you brought. Can you like can you drop a drop bag at the start and they'll just like give it to you? Can I like get on the bus with sweats on? And I don't know, there's all these like interesting logistical questions that can just get in your head at the start, but like you gotta be somehow able to focus in.

SPEAKER_01 20:12

Okay. I wrote down two things here. I was looking at the aid station chart for the 100k course before this recording, and it dawned on me, and maybe we talked about this last year. I can't remember, so correct me if I'm wrong. But you don't get crew at this race until mile 24, the Michigan Bluff Aid Station. And then all of the crewed spots are in the middle of the race. So it's 24, 30 at Forest Hill, 47 at driver's flat. So the first 24 in the final 16, you can't see your crew at all. It's two-thirds of the race basically making smart decisions, being self-sufficient. And that's I I never looked at the race like this before. It's kind of it kind of blows my mind. Like you have to be smart early, and then like you are have to be smart late too.

SPEAKER_02 20:57

Yeah. And I think we really saw this come into play in the hot years uh in recent years. The runners really need to take care of themselves, which is tough. It's April, like people are coming out of winter training, and you're on your own late in the race after being pretty beat up from what happened in the in the miles prior. And uh there's, I mean, there's no live stream out there. Timing is often pretty crappy at this race. So everybody that's following along at home has absolutely no idea what's happening out there. So usually it's uh either it's a pleasant surprise when we get some updates from drivers flat or even later on on the course of who who's moved into what positions.

SPEAKER_00 21:38

It's interesting how this is the like a lot of people will oftentimes do this race is the Western States dress rehearsal, but then you one of the big parts of the Western States dress rehearsal should be the crew practice, but then you actually don't get that much crew practice here.

unknown 21:53

No.

SPEAKER_01 21:54

Yeah. And then I also think uh I was trying to do the math, but there's significantly less aid stations on Cal Street in This race versus Western states. I think you have two less eight stations, like forgetting about the setting aside the crew piece.

SPEAKER_02 22:05

Yeah. And you know, I don't think you need them as much here as you do during Western states, with that's usually the heat of the day for the bulk of the elite field at Western states and at Canyons, less distance, runners can fare a bit better. But like we saw a lot of changes in the field be on Cal Street last year. I think that's where we saw Jasmine Lothor fall back and be a little bit less in contention up front.

SPEAKER_00 22:30

Yeah, and I guess in theory that they should cover the Cal Street section faster at Canyons because the overall pace should be quicker too, along with the better weather, which 10-day forecast, not super reliable, but it's looking pretty nice. Like not perfect, but I think it was like a high of 70 in Auburn for a race day and maybe low 40s at the start. Like it's pretty last year was rain.

SPEAKER_02 22:57

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 22:58

Last year kind of sucked. Oh, he was like sleeting at the start.

SPEAKER_02 23:02

Yeah. They had to have their required like the winter, like the cold weather last year, too, didn't you?

SPEAKER_00 23:08

Yeah, that's right. Yeah, that yeah, this year's weather will be much nicer.

SPEAKER_02 23:12

Yeah, and it does look like it's raining, at least for calling for rain, like three days in the week prior. So that could be nice for coarse conditions too, to get a little bit damp, um, pretty tacky.

SPEAKER_00 23:23

Yeah, probably not muddy though.

SPEAKER_01 23:26

This is uh I wrote two other things down. One is a hope. I hope that, and I think this is like round mile 20. I hope that the bottom of that El Dorado descent to the Michigan Bluffade becomes the new Bumblebee, where like we still have this time around at least 10 to 15 guys, 10 to 15 women still in it, like in a herd, as opposed to already being so strung out like through the deadwood sections.

SPEAKER_00 23:51

That's like yeah.

SPEAKER_02 23:53

Yeah. And I think we saw that on the men, at least in the men's race, was that last year or maybe even two years ago, where there was probably 20 guys down there still together early on, uh and it didn't really break apart till later.

SPEAKER_00 24:06

Yeah. Yeah, that's tricky. That that uh climb up to Devil's Thumb from Swinging Bridge, it's just so steep. Um, like that really it really shows a lot about like just climbing power. And um, whereas like coming into Bumblebee at Black Canyon, it's just like smooth and runnable. Like I don't think I could even climb up to Deadwood with the leaders if I went all out on it, because like I'm just not that good at climbing that gradient.

SPEAKER_01 24:35

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SPEAKER_00 26:47

That's wild. That's so fast. And like chase that splits.

SPEAKER_01 26:52

But but he's like, that felt comfortable because I raced Golden Trail and OCC for years. Like that was a walk in the park to recover from.

SPEAKER_00 27:00

Man. Yeah, I'm so curious what the racing will be like just now that Francesco's splits exist.

SPEAKER_02 27:09

Mm-hmm. Yeah, it's that idea that people keep setting new standards. And last year we didn't see the women even come close to Katie's course record time. But I do think it inspires people to go faster and reach reach for goals that might have otherwise been out of touch a couple years ago.

SPEAKER_00 27:28

Yeah, absolutely. Do you think it's uh I mean, I guess even though it was raining last year, the course was actually still pretty fast because no one was losing any time due to overheating. If the course is dry, but it's like just a few degrees over optimal, could that still be considered course record weather?

SPEAKER_02 27:53

I think it's course record weather, sure, but I don't think I know this is probably for later in our conversation, but I don't think any course records are going down.

SPEAKER_00 28:01

Yeah, that's why I was just asking. Like, do you think it's course record weather? I'm not saying I'm not saying we're gonna break it.

SPEAKER_02 28:06

I think if certain people were to show up at this race and race it, yeah, maybe a course record, but yeah, course record weather for sure, but people have to break it.

SPEAKER_00 28:15

Okay. I just wanted to make sure there was gonna be no excuses on the weather side of things. Because I don't I don't think there's room for any as far as 10 days out is concerned.

SPEAKER_01 28:24

I mean, one of the open questions I had was for people like Will Murray and Ann Flower, who, assuming Western states is the main priority, like this is sort of a dress rehearsal. A, how hard do they race it? And B, if they don't race it that hard but they're super fit, does that still put them in that range? And I always think about Katie's performance here two years ago where I think she was like less than 5% differential from Rod. You know?

SPEAKER_00 28:53

I think one of the things that you should be practicing in a dress rehearsal, especially if you're like Ann Flower or Will Murray, is practicing winning.

SPEAKER_02 29:06

That's true. So racing, racing like you're going to win. And I think we saw Will race that way at Havelina this year. But I think in terms of courses that we've seen him excel on, kind of after he's reached this kind of higher platform of racing in the last year or two. We haven't seen him race on a course like that this competitively.

SPEAKER_00 29:27

Yeah, so I think for yeah, for Will, like part of his dress rehearsal should be trying to win this race. Because if you're gonna try and win Western states, you should probably be winning the qualifier for Western states.

SPEAKER_01 29:42

Let's go into women's field. Leah. You talked about it earlier, and you know, compared to other years, the depth for once might not be that deep. No diving. Yeah, no diving in shallow water. Um, but yeah, given all like what are what are some other thoughts you have? Like, are you categorizing it? Who you like who are you thinking about?

SPEAKER_02 30:09

Yeah, so not it's a little tough to categorize the field this year, but there are a lot of women in this race who have gotten golden tickets before. And as I'm just glancing at who's listed under the elite runners on the Canyon site, um, like Ann Flower, she's into Western States this year. Martina Milnarchik is into Western states this year. And I do believe she's coming off an injury and is likely not racing, as to focus on Western states. Riley Brady's gotten golden tickets before. Aaron Clark, Lynn Chen, Kareth Arnold. Um, Addy Bracie's also into Western states racing this. So it's almost this contingent who are already safely into Western states, and then this group that are chasing the golden tickets. And um, Riley Brady comes to mind at the top of that list of somebody who failed once this season to get a golden ticket, is coming off a really strong gorge 30k performance just this past weekend, and I know is gunning for a golden ticket here. Um, I think that's one of like the main headliners of somebody who's often tried consecutive times to get back in and often does succeed on that second time. So, but I think it's what Brett said at the beginning of the episode. Just the amount of random ballers that we could see kind of come to the stage here, I think is really exciting.

SPEAKER_00 31:29

Yeah, definitely. And there's a few names. Should we wait for Leah to get back? Should we keep we can keep well? We'll riff off what Leah said. Um, she's already back. Um another person who did uh a tune-up race that was pretty solid, like very recently, was Claudia Trump's uh second at Desert Rats 50K. Um it's always hard to know whether that's like was that all out or like a controlled second, but sometimes like what you said, Leah, sometimes just stacking some races works. Um yeah, I'm really curious which Riley is going to show up like 11th at Big Alta or Run Rabbit Champion.

SPEAKER_02 32:17

Yeah. We're seeing a lot of people too um double back from Black Canyon, whether they got their golden ticket at Black Canyon or did not, um including Riley Brady, Ann Flower, um Sarah Humboldt, Alaney Matterisi. So Alaney Matarisi was somebody who I don't think many people knew anything about coming into Black Canyon and then finished just behind Shea Aquilano there. So I think she very much proved that she can run with the best of them. And I think Sarah Humble is somebody who can very much be in that category as well. She's a local runner here in Utah, um, winning the Bear 100 this past year and just think throwing down some really awesome training lately. So I think there's some of the younger athletes who this might be their first season really going after uh tickets on the golden ticket hunt that have gained some confidence this season and might just put themselves in it and see what happens.

SPEAKER_00 33:12

Yeah, I was Elaine was a new name to me at Black Canyon when I was there doing media. And yeah, like her seventh there was super solid. And it seems like looking at a few of her results, she's gotten she seems to be on like the the exponential growth curve uh of just like not that many ultras under her belt, but also like youth being on her side as well. Um so like if she makes the jump that she did from uh what was it, Kodiak 50K to Black Canyon 100k, if she makes that jump again to Canyon, she's gonna be right in the golden ticket mix.

SPEAKER_01 34:01

I love the Sarah Humble call out. And from what I gather from her coach, Jimmy Elam, the missing link here is just figuring out race day nutrition, but like has the wheels, has the fitness, uh, is a hard worker, like puts in the workouts, the mileage, et cetera, uh, to be ready. So I think she's a great like knocking at the door candidate. I think this would be a great, uh, even though it is a high profile race, just given the nature of the field that should be slightly lower pressure than in other years. And wouldn't surprise me at all to see her in that like six, five, four spot. Totally uh yeah. Great call-up.

SPEAKER_02 34:40

Yeah, this is a race too that I think we'll see a couple of those runners who already have tickets and spots into Western states fill that top five. So I think similar to when I think it was Careth Arnold got a ticket here a few years ago, and she was kind of back in that fourth, fifth position. And Aaron Clark last year, when she got a ticket, I think was also back in that like fifth position. You need to still be running your heart out, battling for fourth, fifth, sixth place because that ticket is more than likely rolling to you. And we've seen that all season long for the golden tickets. Like Lottie Brinks just received a golden ticket probably three weeks ago, rolled down after many people ahead of her have declined. So I think anything can truly happen up until May 1st.

SPEAKER_00 35:22

I have a question. Do you think well, I guess what do you think Anne Flower is gonna do? Because I think it's like this race, it feels like this is right, it is like her race to do she can do whatever she wants at this race. What's Ann Flower gonna do? I'm so well like are we chasing 9-10?

SPEAKER_02 35:52

I think she will chase a win more than a time.

SPEAKER_00 35:55

Just a w yeah.

SPEAKER_01 35:58

Yeah, because I I couldn't course profile-wise, is this a bigger depart like is this the biggest departure from what she's normally used to racing on? Like, was Black Canyon not too crazy of a departure from Leadville?

SPEAKER_02 36:11

I think so. Like I think she's done extremely well. I mean, she's done extremely well at every race she's raced, but a lot of her success has been at Moab races, Leadville, Silver Rush, Black Canyon, a lot of the really runnable stuff. Like she's so fast. And I don't think that has stopped anybody on this course before, but I do think Canyons will be the most challenging one to date if we're talking about her performance relative to the rest of the field.

SPEAKER_00 36:37

It's definitely got the most front loaded vert, which is a a new element. Um but yeah, I was just curious, I'm like, man, if she goes for that like just 9-10 splits, would anyone even go with her? Or would this just be like a solo flyer kind of race?

SPEAKER_02 36:57

I think I can't imagine anyone would go with her. I'm examining the list here, and maybe maybe Riley would.

SPEAKER_00 37:05

Yeah, Riley was the only one who I was thinking maybe if Riley like if n it knows that they're having that day, they would go with it. But yeah, and then I don't know, it was talk about like, well, would you just let Anne go because she's already in Western state, she's got the ticket, like second place is the new first place, or or is that not a thing because racing is racing?

SPEAKER_01 37:32

Uh I just think I think Riley wants back into Western states. And so as long as they're in golden ticket position, I would assume this is just me putting my opinion out there that they would just be happy to be in Olympic Valley, healthy, able to recover from this effort. I don't think that they need to win here. I think it's just get to Western states. That's just that's just my guess. No, I haven't had a conversation with them in a bit. Um, so that's just me guessing.

SPEAKER_02 38:03

Yeah, and I think Riley has had a few tough races a season where they're working out the kinks of nutrition and stomach problems. Had that day at Black Canyon, I think also um, probably not the exact day they wanted at Big Alta. I think that was a 50k there. Um, but I think gained a lot of confidence from the speed that they threw down at Gorge 30K this past weekend. So I think if that effort is recent in their mind, I would feel pretty comfortable going with Anne if Anne were to be somebody that would push a course record split early on.

SPEAKER_00 38:37

Another question I have. Would Kareth Arnold take a ticket?

SPEAKER_02 38:43

No.

SPEAKER_00 38:44

No, okay. Because Careth's already running hard rock.

SPEAKER_02 38:47

Yeah. I she yeah, Kareth is incredible. She just ran the Moab six-hour race. So we talked a little bit about quad resilience. And the Moab Roofah course is roughly like 950 feet up in about a mile on Slick Rock. Brutal, absolutely brutal. Uh, she showed up, she like biked to the start. She was camping with her family in Fruta, uh, got made her way to Moab bike to the start, ripped six hours of laps there, just demolishing her quads. And I think that ended up being a 13,000-foot day just like two weeks ago, a week and a half ago, in a marathon, and was unfazed, absolutely unfazed. So I think Careth is gonna have the strongest quads in the field. And I has experience on this course. So I think she's somebody that will be almost a guarantee for a podium spot. But I think hard rock is hard rock and UTMB are her focuses this year.

SPEAKER_00 39:47

So she's just here then for the the racing, for the for the bonus.

SPEAKER_02 39:52

And she said, what did she say at uh TDS? She felt like her quads were what kind of left her late in the race. And this year it's been a focus for her to just feel like she has legs later on. I think knowing that hard rock is going to be challenging in that way. And then UTMB will also be challenging in a similar way.

unknown 40:10

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 40:11

And do you think she's in do you think she's in better shape now than she was this time last? Like is she in better than 10 hour shape at Canyons?

SPEAKER_02 40:17

Yes, for sure. Yeah. And she's self-coaching herself right now, too, I learned. And she's loving it. She's crushing it. She's a mom and just seems to really be listening to her body and pushing her body in a way that kind of suits her when it's best for her life. And I think she's getting a lot out of herself.

SPEAKER_00 40:37

Yeah, and I guess looking at this as like hard rock or UTMB prep on paper, it it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. But but on the other hand, just hard racing is hard racing. And there is a lot that that can go with that.

SPEAKER_02 40:54

Definitely. And I know with Kerith was having some health issues earlier on the season, and I think has like finally figured them out and just seems like in a really good place. So I hope she gets the start line healthy because I think she's going to be somebody that, you know, might not be running off the front of the race, but will work her way up, certainly, throughout the course of the day.

SPEAKER_01 41:16

I love that. I love that you got to be on the ground for that Moab Rufa performance because like that's like a deep cut intel right there. Yeah, that's a good one. Be there to see it.

SPEAKER_02 41:24

Yeah, good good climber and I mean an absolutely incredible technical dissenter. It was it was so impressive to watch, and I was just enamored by her.

SPEAKER_00 41:36

Do we know if Lin Chen is starting this race?

SPEAKER_01 41:41

Death Taxes and Lin Chen on start lists.

SPEAKER_02 41:46

I think Lin Chen has been on every golden ticket start list this season. So I am unsure. I hope she starts. She's such a good racer, whatever. She's fit and healthy and shows up on a start line. But honestly, she's the biggest question mark for golden ticket hunting season.

SPEAKER_00 42:01

Yeah, totally. And then did we get an answer on Aaron Clark? She's out. Not racing. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 42:08

She's out. Yep, she's out. So if you're playing Fantasy Free Trail, she's out. But yeah, what how about that strategy? Just like being a specter on Starless. Not saying that that's her intention, but like what if Jim just did that?

SPEAKER_00 42:20

Jim was just signed up for every race. I mean, race directors everywhere would love it. Oh yeah. Like, yeah, Jim, double enter yourself in my race. I don't care. I'll give you three entries.

SPEAKER_01 42:36

So any Leah, any other off the radar people or just that aren't hitting that index that are still interesting to mention?

SPEAKER_02 42:50

Yeah, I think um Eo Wang is one that's interesting. That's a good thing. We're talking today about just the throwback entry list that is uh the unlisted elite runners. And some of them we mentioned were including like Claire Gallagher, Megan Roach, Anna Mae Flynn, Eo Wang. And I think Brett was like, what is this 2014? Because that's truly what it looks like, uh, further down in the entrance list. But um, she's somebody who kind of took a break from, I'd say, the more competitive racing for a few years there and is extremely fast and looks like she just took home first place at the um, it was like the golden golden, oh, the Marin Ultra Challenge 50k race. So she's in good shape. And I think she can stick with some of the runners in this field. Like I I don't really foresee her being like extreme front of the pack, but maybe more in that like fifth through ten position, probably fighting for a ticket that could potentially roll down.

unknown 43:45

Wow.

SPEAKER_00 43:45

She had some good ones at Lake Sonoma back in the day. That would be that would be cool. Cool to see Eo Wang back back in it. Um yeah, Leah, you mentioned Marcy climack. I've Forgot up until well, I was talking to Marcy like this morning about the race, or not about the race, about coaching stuff. Um, but I'm curious, she hasn't done a race this long in a while because well, she had a baby last November.

SPEAKER_02 44:16

But she was she was leading the charge with Rachel Drake at Black Canyon just a couple years ago when Rachel won.

SPEAKER_00 44:22

Oh yeah, yeah. The fitness fitness is has always been there. I mean, Marcy just ripped a 10 mile, uh the local 10 mile race here last week and she ran like 530 pace or something.

SPEAKER_02 44:31

Jeez.

SPEAKER_00 44:32

Um yeah, no, Marcy's Marcy's fit. It's just the you know, the experience, um, the race experience from the these long ones that gets tough. Uh because yeah, there's you can get as fit as you want for these hundred Ks, but like there's only one way to know like to make it muscle memory of an aid station 45 miles in, and it's to have done that a whole bunch of times 45 miles tired. And it does get easier the more that you do. But um yeah, I think uh experience is just gonna be like the the main question mark for for Marcy because the fitness is always there.

SPEAKER_01 45:14

Okay. Let's go to picks. Starting with you, Leah. Let's go win tickets time, yes, no course record.

SPEAKER_02 45:26

Okay. Win Ann Flower. Okay. Um tickets we got Riley Brady, Sarah Humboldt, Claudia Tremps. But I do believe Karah Arnold is going to be second place in this field. And both she and Ann Flower will not Anne's already in the Western States. Kareth won't take a ticket, so I think um three, four, and five will be, yeah, Riley, Sarah, and Claudia Tremps. And no course record, but I do believe they will Anne will run like 920. And I think we'll see the rest of the women's field be under like Marianne's time from last year.

SPEAKER_01 46:15

Okay, so like 20 minutes.

SPEAKER_02 46:18

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 46:19

Great.

SPEAKER_00 46:22

I'm like almost the same. I literally wrote down Anne Flower 920 as the winner. I got Careth Arnold in second. I got Riley Brady in third taking that first golden ticket, but then fourth, I got Elainey Matarisi taking the next golden ticket, and then I got Marcy Kleinek taking the final golden ticket in fifth, and golden tickets going to third, fourth, and fifth place. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 46:53

I've got a little bit of a shakeup on my side.

SPEAKER_02 46:56

Of course you do. Good.

SPEAKER_01 46:57

I've got I've got I've got Riley Brady for the win. Nice. I like that. I've got I've got Riley Brady for the win. I think this is a in in a sense a comeback race, a re-establishment.

unknown 47:07

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 47:08

Uh I've got Ann Flower in second, Carath Arnold third, Addie Bracey fourth, and then the fifth is Sarah Humble. She takes a ticket. Elaine Matarisi takes a ticket. So Riley, Sarah, Alaney go into Western States. Riley for the win in 927. So 18, 19 minutes faster than Emily last year. And yeah, I think I think this is a tight race. My other prediction is the top six, seven women are all under 950.

SPEAKER_04 47:37

Wow.

SPEAKER_02 47:38

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 47:41

I think the women's race time-wise is going to spread out a little bit more.

SPEAKER_02 47:45

It usually does at Canyons, I think.

SPEAKER_00 47:47

Especially just kind of what with what we were all been talking about. But I think in like the terms of like the top two or three, they're all going to still be like you wouldn't you wouldn't know at any, you know, compared to any other year.

SPEAKER_01 48:02

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SPEAKER_00 49:42

So I tried to make a couple different categories. Um there's a lot of people in this race who are used to being at the front of the race, which is interesting because there is a lot of single track through Michigan Bluff, really through Forest Hill. And while passing is not difficult, it's also not easy either. So I'm curious to be like, who actually is going to be the one that's taking the lead up to Devil's Thumb, you know, after that swinging bridge turnaround? But um we've got some we've got some champions of this race in previous years. We've got Adam Peterman and Cole Watson who have actually won the race. Hayden Hawks gets honorable mention because he did win the 50k a couple of years ago. Um and then we do have some other heavy hitters, you know, Will Murray, Canyon Woodward. I'm putting Canyon in the heavy hitters category because after Black Canyon, what did I say he need? I said he needed to finish on the podium in like two golden ticket races, and then he finished and he was like, All right, I did it. I did it. You can call me a heavy hitter now. So congratulations, Canyon. The bar has been set very high now. Um, I mean, Zach Miller, he's going in my heavy hitters category. He's one of the heaviest of hitters. Um I just am curious where his training has looked awesome. His training kind of always looks awesome, but it's actually his training has actually looked a little bit safer than previous years because he's he's actually a lot of cross-training. So still 20-hour weeks, but like 13-14 hours of running with a lot of skiing and biking, which that might not be a bad call for for Zach. I don't think he needs to run 25 hours a week year-round. Um, but Leah, like what you were saying, like you know, the people with the seasoned quads are gonna benefit. Zach is Zach has seasoned quads. Like, I don't think um, I don't think he's getting dropped in the first half. No. Um, because he's whether he likes it or not, Zach's actually really good at these like hilly to kind of hard 50 mile to 100k races. I know he likes to be a mountain guy, but Zach's good at the eight-hour race.

SPEAKER_02 52:25

Yeah, and I could just see him uh working extremely hard in those early miles too. And yeah, honestly, very similar to the Miller versus Hawks kind of effort level that we saw. Zach's somebody that you might see him working that hard early on, and you're like, there's no way he can hold this pace and effort. And then you see him 40 miles later, and you're like, okay, there is a way he can hold this pace and effort.

SPEAKER_00 52:49

As he's eating a banana like this. Apologies to the people who are just listening because they're who knows what they're drawing up in their head right now. Subscribe on YouTube, please. You're gonna have to watch it on YouTube to know what I did.

SPEAKER_01 53:11

Brett, let me ask you a question. Uh obviously, you had the privilege of calling the Chuckin' Ut race last month, and what you told me after the fact was just how like basically effortless Will's Will Murray's win there was. He was just kind of dominant and to some extent kind of toyed with the field. Uh, how close are we to anointing him as like the type of person where it's like it's Will's race to lose, or he's just like a truly like dominant figure in the sport.

SPEAKER_00 53:40

Uh I don't know if I would even say that if he won this race, that it's his race to lose. I think he'd have to win something like Western states. You'd have to do something like historic. Um, because you spoke very highly of him though, after Chuck and Oh, yeah, for sure. His Chuck knot looked good. It made me very excited to see him, you know, race Hayden, Adam, Zach, you know, something like this. Um Will's he's really smart. I mean, he didn't lead wire to wire. Um, Adam Scholand on the main climb up Cleater Road, his big dirt road, just like 500, 600 feet a mile. Adam put this huge move on. Will just let him go and just held pace and then immediately caught back up to him on the technical uh ridgeline section. So like yeah, it was it was calculated, and then he was just opened it up on the last 10k. He looked so good uh just around the flats like and he and then he finished and he was like nice, like so much, so much left in the tank. Um yeah, it seemed like it was just kind of it wasn't a race effort for him. Um I this will be a race effort, I guarantee that.

SPEAKER_02 55:02

Um would you put Will in a category similar to Ann Flower where they've had their success so far, at least in the more public eye, on courses that tend to be flatter, faster, and kind of of the same category?

SPEAKER_00 55:16

I would say so, yeah. Um even though Chuck and Nut has a lot of climbing, it's still three hours and 40 minutes. Um, whereas Will ran good at Black Canyon, you know, yeah, net downhill, but nowhere near as much climbing as this. And then Havelina, just full running. I I think he does still have a lot to prove. Um, you know, we we would probably be talking about it differently if he was able to run Western States last year. But uh yeah, this is kind of his the first time we get to see him like really rip it on the Western States course. And um yeah, I think I think he's gonna be right right in with the heavy hitter group. Um and then I do I I wrote down a couple other names in my like could I don't know if it's could podium. I guess when I wrote podium, I meant could golden ticket, which isn't necessarily just third place. What it what is it? It can go down to seventh, seventh. Seventh, yeah. Fourth, fifth, sixth, you could be seventh. Um canhua luo, who got a golden ticket at Black Canyon two years ago, and it was kind of a late charge. Because I think it was he was either in it or one spot out going into Table Mesa. And I I was looking at some of his past results in 2023. He did the Canyon's hundred-mile western states double.

SPEAKER_04 56:45

Huh.

SPEAKER_00 56:46

Yeah, that's what I said. I don't know really why, because Western States wasn't that great.

SPEAKER_02 56:57

Dude, yeah. I'm looking, wow, and did uh Ultra Trail Ninghai in China just two weeks before Canyon Tundra Mile that.

SPEAKER_00 57:04

Yeah, it was it was a lot of racing uh that spring and early summer. So yeah, um does a lot of races, but has you know US racing experience, especially on the golden ticket scene and at a very competitive golden ticket race. So I like golden ticket chances there. And then uh G Duo, the other uh elite athlete from China, does a ton of races in that eight to ten hour range, and they're all pretty good. Um I don't know if any of the past results have really been uh so good where I'm like, you could win this race, but a lot of them have been good enough where it's like you could snag a gold ticket. I also noticed that he's he's sponsored by Hoka, so I wrote like potential like bonus snag type race. Um, I'm just here so I don't get fined. I'm not sure.

SPEAKER_02 57:59

Uh he was um he was fourth at UTMB just this past year. So I think for if we're talking quad resilience here, he's definitely somebody I'd put in the I can handle the first half of this course category.

SPEAKER_00 58:16

Totally. And then on the opposite end of that racing spectrum, uh Cade Michael, who got third at the Black Canyon 50K and hasn't quite nailed it for a hundred K distance yet. But apparently, listen to the Boulder Boys podcast. They're like, dude, Cade is so fit, he trains so hard, none of us can train with him. Blah, blah, blah.

SPEAKER_01 58:41

Have you seen some of his training? It's insane. He yeah, there was a the the three-day stretch of 2030-40-6, I think it was.

SPEAKER_02 58:50

Yeah, it looks like he's in the CTS Cliff Pittman camp of 120 to 140 mile weeks peaking here in training, which I think he had like definitely the bulkiest training of anybody. I saw this block. But like Brad said, you know, he's really put it together at the shorter stuff when we saw that at Black Canyon 50K. But I I mean that training should suit you well for something of this length.

SPEAKER_00 59:14

For sure. Yeah. I mean, you were right behind Adam Peterman, and I'm guarantee Adam Peterman is thinking I'm winning this race. So you just stick with Adam and good things will probably happen. Speaking of Adams, oh, good transition, Brett.

SPEAKER_02 59:30

Uh three of them.

SPEAKER_00 59:31

Adam Loomis.

SPEAKER_02 59:33

Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 59:35

He's uh probably thought of oftentimes as more of a mountain runner, but kind of like Zach Miller. He's actually pretty good at everything. He is. Uh 2025 Twisted Fork 68K champion. Thank you. Thank you. Um I've Adam Loomis, he might be one that finishes higher than like the free trail group think.

SPEAKER_02 59:56

Yeah. I think so. Um, yeah, also won the rut just last year, too, and does extremely well, like you said, in like races like Speed Goat, yeah, the Rut.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:06

Just Gorge 100K, Gorge 100K champion 2024.

SPEAKER_02 1:00:11

Yeah. So he's really understated and I think surprises a lot of people when he pops off. And I'm excited to see him kind of just be in the mix here. And his training looks awesome. Normally, um, I mean, I think our really lackluster winter here in Salt Lake City and Park City have lended itself nicely to Adam training a little bit more this time of year, but normally he doesn't really have higher mileage in April. But I think we're seeing him do a little bit more training than he normally does this time of year.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:41

Okay, I can't believe this was four years ago, but Adam Peterman ran 831 for the win. It was the year that Leah, you got your golden ticket. You know, no one talks about my 32nd place finish. Uh they shouldn't. They should. Caleb Olsom took ninth, which is just again crazy. Um, but yeah, Adam ran 831 on the course that went from Auburn to China Wall. And actually, Brett, you've run this course too. Like, uh, what's the conversion there? Like, how should we think about the 831? He beat David Sinclair, which was really impressive too. I mean, just an amazing run. I feel like that 831 is incredible.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:17

I think it is too.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:18

I think it's amazing.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:19

That course was net uphill, too. Like, that was a stellar race for him.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:24

Yeah, and like, I mean, he took David Sinclair, David had a really good race. David was shattered at the finish. Like, he was using trekking poles to walk around in the parking lot, and he immediately turned down the golden ticket because of how hard that race was. They were like, Do you want to run states? And he's like, nope, not one bit.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:48

Yeah. And by contrast at JFK, he was just sitting cross-legged after running 508 like nothing had happened.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:54

Yeah, and normally you don't get that shattered on a net uphill race.

SPEAKER_04 1:01:59

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:59

Usually it happens on the downhill races. So I don't know. I think Adams 830 was was something else. And the the one thing that they got is they followed the perfect weather window temperature-wise, like all the way up the course. Um, because even though it was like a little bit snowy and slushy at the finish, it was like they started in Auburn and it was 45 degrees. And then as they got higher and higher, it just kept like staying 45 degrees the whole time. So that helped.

SPEAKER_02 1:02:29

But um Yeah, Adams 2022 time, despite that being a net uphill course, is still the third fastest time at Canyons. Yeah, like I would have The only people ahead of him are Francesco and Hans from last year.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:42

Yeah, like if if you had if the race had never gone the other like the other direction from China Wall to Auburn and you had said like, how many minutes faster would you be if you ran the course backwards, which is now forwards, I would have said at least a half an hour.

SPEAKER_04 1:02:58

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:58

But then Adam runs 831. So am I automatically just saying, well, yeah, Adam's time would have actually been worth like four minutes fl faster than Francesco's time, which seemed otherworldly last year.

SPEAKER_02 1:03:10

I do think they when they added the downhill, uphill into the canyons course um a couple years ago, like the remember whenever it isn't exactly like reverse.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:23

Yeah, did it have did we did it have the swinging bridge out and back?

SPEAKER_02 1:03:27

I don't think so. No.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:28

Oh, okay. So there's probably a little bit more. Because before it was just like that dirt bike circle.

SPEAKER_02 1:03:34

I think your argument still stands.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:36

Yeah, it's pretty well. Adam's time is pretty good, but um yeah, there's a lot of uh I'm curious too how Adam would like grade his training between Black Canyon and now, because he was gonna do Chianti. Uh does Adam Peterman. He was gonna do Chianti, but he was his Achilles was bugging him after Black Canyon, so he decided to not run Chianti and then put all the eggs in the Canyon's basket. And I'm curious how fit he is.

SPEAKER_02 1:04:10

His training looks solid. It's not the you know, 120 to 140 miles we see Cade putting down, but it's really solidly hitting around 100 miles. And I think what is probably different with his training compared to probably past years, is it just seems extremely focused. Like every run very much seems to have a purpose, also doing a decent amount of cycling as well. So I think as long as his Achilles stays intact, he'll be a he'll be a tough one to beat or tough one to just even run with out there.

SPEAKER_00 1:04:42

That's kind of like how Hayden Hawks' training has transformed in the last few years, where because he used to run a lot.

SPEAKER_02 1:04:49

Yeah. And his volume is like, this is like 12 hours, his training.

SPEAKER_00 1:04:54

Yeah, it's like pretty, pretty, pretty moderate.

SPEAKER_02 1:04:58

Mm-hmm. Like his him and Zach Miller have like the least running in their training, which you know, five years ago we would have been like, what the heck are these guys doing? They're doing so much.

SPEAKER_00 1:05:09

Yeah. Yeah, I know. It's like you you can get away with a lot now, but you can also still be pretty successful, maybe with less, if you have those years of a lot.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:21

I agree.

SPEAKER_00 1:05:22

Um, who else? Ferdinand Arol. He was my other p could podium name, the magician. Because he was the first person to not get a golden ticket at Black Canyon. But he was he was like running up on Jordan Bramblett at the end. Like had the race been another mile or two longer, he would have potentially run into that golden tickets button. He's he won he's won the hundred mile here, I think. So I guess I should have put him in my champions category with Hayden in the like champion of a different distance, but uh He could definitely he's on Golden Ticket Watch for sure.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:05

One one quick thing about Cade. I'm on the UTMB Elite Runner site and under Team. You know, you've got Kylas Fuga, you've got Hoka, you've got Great Racing Project. Cade, DM me your bid.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:21

Wait, that's amazing.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:24

Do you think he knows that's not quite how it works? Isn't Mike is Mike still cat nation?

SPEAKER_02 1:06:31

He's still Cat Nation, yeah. It's him in the cat shirt holding the cat.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:36

I noticed um Adam Peterman doesn't have a team listed. Like you'd think Hoka would be going down through these lists being like, you need to update your UTMB profile.

SPEAKER_04 1:06:46

Yeah. Oh, that's funny.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:49

And then does Molly Seidel's, I think it said your mom.

SPEAKER_04 1:06:56

Sounds amazing.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:57

It actually does still say that. So it still says your mom.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:03

Um it does still say your mom. Nice. So okay.

SPEAKER_00 1:07:09

Let's see. Uh oh, go ahead. Go ahead. Oh, say like any other any other names we we need to call into this group.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:16

So I'm curious about Puma. Is he because I know he had injury that he was coming back from two or three months ago, and it his build has looked good, but like his peak weeks have been the last two, a little bit low inverse. I was just curious. Do you guys know if he's racing?

SPEAKER_02 1:07:29

I don't think he's racing. I know he was dealing with a little injury.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:32

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 1:07:33

This is Eric La Puma, for anyone who was wondering, because Finn just said Puma.

SPEAKER_02 1:07:40

Finn's on a last half of the last name basis.

SPEAKER_00 1:07:44

Yeah, yeah. You're on the East Coast.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:46

I'm probably a little tired.

unknown 1:07:48

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:50

Actually, I said Lough, but my internet conked out.

SPEAKER_02 1:07:52

So yeah, sure. Um, I think the only last one I would add, um, or us a couple here, Ryan Raff and Blake Slattengren, um, both seem to be chasing the ticket at multiple races the last couple years and falling short and really not not having the days that I think they're capable of. Uh so I think we kind of see them be these golden ticket returners each year. So hopefully one of them can or both of them can have a good race that they're proud of.

SPEAKER_00 1:08:23

Totally. Yeah, like they'll be in the lead packs at the beginning of the race for sure.

SPEAKER_01 1:08:30

Okay, Brett, give us your picks or let's see. Win picks time course record, yes, no.

SPEAKER_00 1:08:38

Okay. I think the winning time will be 810. So it's gonna be aggressively fast, but not quite 804 Francesco fast. And I think the person that's gonna do it is gonna be Will Murray. You were asking, like, is is this are you gonna say this is the race where like Will Murray, it's his race to lose. I'm not saying it's his race to lose, but I think it's his race to win. And I think Will's gonna put his stamp, like he's gonna put his his name like really on notice for Western states. Uh practice winning. Hashtag practice winning. He's getting good at it. That's the thing, is like he hasn't lost in a in a while now. Like when did he Black Canyon 2025?

SPEAKER_01 1:09:32

Yeah. Yeah, he's kind of on like an Adam Peterman streak when he burst onto the scene.

SPEAKER_00 1:09:37

So I'm gonna go Will for the win. I've got Adam Peterman in second. Probably not too far behind because yeah, it's just not gonna spread out that much. Hayden Hawks third. Cole Watson fourth. Those are our three golden tickets. Adam Hayden Cole. One, two. Okay, so yeah, I guess we're we only needed to go four deep on that one.

SPEAKER_02 1:10:07

Who's fifth? Who do you got in fifth, Brett?

SPEAKER_00 1:10:09

Can Holua.

SPEAKER_02 1:10:11

Nice. Okay. I've got, let's see here. I have Adam Peterman winning. I have so much confidence in Adam on this course. I think something that is helpful, and maybe he doesn't think this, but I think it is, is one of the things he said at Western States this year. I think coming into even like Michigan, that wasn't Michigan, it was devil's thumb area, was like his quads were already blown. And I think that was very much like a lesson learned in whether it's training, hydration, nutrition, whatever it was, but I think it probably sent him back to the drawing board a bit. And he's somebody from his training that very much looks to have a really nice overt to miles ratio that I think is appropriate for a course like Canyon's. And he is just, he's tough. So I have him in first. Will Murray, very close battle. I think those two guys will be battling it out for most of the day. Uh Will's in second. I have G Duo in third, Canyon Woodward in fourth, Cade Michael in fifth. So Adam, G Duo, and Cade will get the golden tickets. And I think 10 minutes lower than Poopy's time from last year. Yeah. No push record.

SPEAKER_01 1:11:24

So 8.14, 15-ish?

SPEAKER_02 1:11:26

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:11:27

Okay. All right. Shoot from the hip here. I've got Cade Michael for the win. And I think I'll go I'll go one step further and I'll say Cade dictates from the start. So he's the guy that makes the move, and we see who follows, and I think he holds on. And I think he's had enough uh false starts, you know, in 2025 and earlier where experience under his belt. Great performance at Black Canyon uh back in February, and he's in a great training environment. So I think this is a breakout race for him. I've got Will Murray in second, valiant effort. He's the guy that goes, and I think Cade just sticks it. Uh Adam Peterman in third, Hayden Hawks in fourth. I only go four down because Cade's taking a ticket. Adam's taking a ticket, and Hayden runs a very strategic race. He does just enough to get the ticket, and he's feeling healthy and still can put in good training for Western states. And, you know, he's going for the win there.

SPEAKER_02 1:12:22

I don't think Hayden ever just does enough. Just Hayden's so competitive.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:27

I know. I know he is. No, he's a game. I mean, he has no friends in the start line, you know.

SPEAKER_03 1:12:31

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:33

Uh and then yeah, also no course record, uh, but it's it's a fast race. Cade runs 809 for the win.

SPEAKER_04 1:12:40

Wow, nice.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:41

Just one off Brett, five off Julia.

SPEAKER_00 1:12:43

Yeah. 809 for the win. So I realize that everyone I picked in my top four, they're all um they all ride bikes now. Because I mean, Will's like Will is a cyclist.

SPEAKER_02 1:12:57

Yeah, Will had one day where he did like a four-hour bike, four-hour run to follow. Okay.

SPEAKER_00 1:13:03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:03

And it works for him. It works so well.

SPEAKER_00 1:13:05

Adam. Adam's been biking, right? Adam, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:09

I have a question for you guys.

SPEAKER_00 1:13:11

Okay. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:12

Who men, women's field, both, if you want, who gets a sponsorship out of this race? Anyone?

SPEAKER_00 1:13:18

Well, I think I mean it's Cade if Fiton, if Cade does what Fenton says, someone will DM him year their bid. Um Elaine Matarisi is the other one who I think brands would start to be uh paying attention for and potentially someone that they would want to be repping their brand, uh, come Western states. Because there's there's only so much uh there's only so many people that are gonna be running Western states and like there's gonna be a lot of eyes on you there.

SPEAKER_01 1:13:54

So do you think it, Leah, do you think it will this race will be enough for that? Or do you think these people need to turn in something at Western too? Because like I remember didn't Rod get his HOCA sponsorship? Was it was actually was it just before Western 2020? It was after it was after, okay. Yeah. But he was like a North Face development athlete, I guess. Yeah, okay.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:16

I don't think you can like get third place here and get a contract. I think you need to have a pretty big splash from a breakout performance, whether that's like course record or winning or second, something like that. Because I think we're seeing like Will was kind of an example of that. He almost had to show up multiple times, do the exact same thing, and prove himself uh before he got picked up by Brooks this year. But it's also an interesting time the season for sponsorships too. Like April's a little tricky.

SPEAKER_00 1:14:42

Yeah, or if like one of these runners has already been loosely talking to a brand and like the foot's already in that door and then they go and smash canyons, then they that they could uh fast track something a little bit more. But I think going from like full no sponsor cold calling brands to a kit at Western States, I feel like the only way you're doing that is winning this race, course record, and then accepting a terrible lowball offer. Don't do that. Do the do the Anthony Costales wait till after states.

SPEAKER_01 1:15:21

And okay, speaking of Anthony, I will say this, and I'm I'm rooting for this so hard. I want okay, this is the I'm still here performance. I want an I'm still here performance from Cole Watson.

SPEAKER_00 1:15:34

Yeah, I would I would love that too. I mean, he's he's fit. Got him on the bike, uh supplementing the verb, been been jumping into the uh the Leah Yingling school of quad seasoning. Yeah, he's had some he's had some good Canyons runs. But yeah, I would love to see Cole pop one off here on the home course. Um none of us mentioned Zach Miller.

SPEAKER_02 1:16:03

Yeah. I I think Zach will be in the race for the first in up until Michigan Bluff.

SPEAKER_00 1:16:12

Yeah. It's just he's like kind of it's been it's been a minute since he's had one of the caliber needed to get a golden ticket here. I mean, his second place at UTMB was three years ago now.

SPEAKER_02 1:16:25

Yeah. You remember when like Dakota was in the mix at Western States a couple years ago, just really gunning for it, and then fell apart a forest hill. I feel like we might see something similar out of Zach where he'll really be in it up until that Michigan Bluff Forest Hill area, like front of the pack, charging hard, maybe even leading, but I don't think I think the runnability later might and just like the speed of the competition these days might be a little tough to hang.

SPEAKER_00 1:16:52

Yeah. Unless unless old Zach is just like back, like it's I mean it's kind of wild how good Zach has been for how long. But like if you take just like 2016 Zach and throw him in this field with a pair of wild horse twos and vanilla goo, like one an hour, I throw him right in golden ticket contention.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:18

Dude, he's got 13 years of high-level racing under his belt dating back to 2013 JFK. He won that race in 538.

SPEAKER_00 1:17:28

That's that's amazing consistency.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:30

And he's 37 years old too.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:33

And turns 38 this year.

unknown 1:17:34

That's great.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:35

He's still got it. We'll see. Hopefully he's still got it.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:40

He beat he beat Mike Wardian for the win at JFK in 2013.

SPEAKER_00 1:17:46

Another person who's still got it. Yeah, Iron Mike.

SPEAKER_04 1:17:50

Dude.

SPEAKER_00 1:17:51

Running in sandals.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:54

Tiva's, dude, that's a sick sponsorship. Hi, hi. Where's Tiva dropping in on Canyons, getting Cade Michael at Tiva sponsorship?

SPEAKER_00 1:18:03

Dude, I mean how much money would it take for you to start Western States in some open-toed shoes?

SPEAKER_02 1:18:11

Hey, that's I would do it.

SPEAKER_00 1:18:15

Well, yeah, I would do everyone as their price.

SPEAKER_01 1:18:21

Okay, before we go, really quickly, 50K, 100 mile. Uh Leah, starting with you, just any anything interesting to you in the in the 50k, men's orbit's fields.

SPEAKER_02 1:18:31

Yeah, let me 50k. Okay. Women's race, exciting. Men's race, not deep, kind of exciting. Women's, it's McKenna Morley, Lauren Gregory, Molly Seidel. Honestly, great matchup of those three.

SPEAKER_00 1:18:44

I think sick matchup.

SPEAKER_02 1:18:46

I think that's the podium. I don't know what order it's going to be in, but McKenna Morley's been a really fun one to follow this last year and has been like crushing it with the Missoula crew. And Lauren just came off of a course record win at Gorge 30K, even adding some extra, extra distance there. So that's gonna be, I think Lauren and McKenna for one, two, honestly, but we'll see.

SPEAKER_00 1:19:09

Yeah, Lauren Lauren Gregory is so good at running trails. Yeah, and is also so fast. I mean, I think Lauren's 5k PR from college is in the low 15s. Like I gotta check, but it it might be faster than Molly's college 5K PR.

SPEAKER_02 1:19:25

This is pretty far for Lauren, though, I will say. Is this your 50k?

SPEAKER_00 1:19:31

Yeah, it's it's gonna be it's far.

SPEAKER_02 1:19:34

Um and McKenna has raised 50k at Kodiak.

SPEAKER_00 1:19:38

Yeah, McKenna spanked everyone at Kodiak.

SPEAKER_01 1:19:42

I remember thinking after last year that the Canyon's 50K along with the black Canyon 50K, those were gonna be sort of like the two perennially deep early to mid-season. And it seems like, again, like you said, great matchups in these two fields, but fair like sparse and maybe losing momentum compared to last year. Like last year's women's 50k was like at least six or seven ladies deep, it seemed, you know. So I don't know.

SPEAKER_00 1:20:09

Like just been it's too many years of no live stream.

SPEAKER_02 1:20:15

And there's like I think the prize purse at Gorge attracted a lot of people to the 50K and 30K there just this past weekend. Lake Sonoma was a Terracks event, so there's just way too much saturation.

SPEAKER_00 1:20:26

Like Desert Desert Rats was another just a competing UTMB race. Whereas like you could go go get your spot at UTMB.

SPEAKER_01 1:20:35

So Matt Daniels is back. Matt Daniels is back on the men's side. He had a great race here last year, and I actually think the matchup with him versus Eli is really interesting.

SPEAKER_02 1:20:46

Yeah, that is good. And Alex Garcia Carillo from Spain. Uh that should be, I think, a good matchup. Is Eli? I know Eli just DNF'd Desert Rats at like mile four this past weekend.

SPEAKER_00 1:21:00

Is that cramping?

SPEAKER_02 1:21:02

Is he gonna line up at Canyons 50k? Do we know?

SPEAKER_00 1:21:06

I I would if I was him, assuming that it's not like I was cramping up because I'm like protecting an injury. I give you his healthy and just I don't know how that happens. Um but if his legs are good to race again, he should go race. Um Eli's been the best when he races a good amount and doesn't cook himself in training. So I'm all for plus I like watching Eli race. Not that I'm gonna get to watch him race because there's no live stream here, but I like I like it when Eli races. So my vote's that Eli should race.

SPEAKER_01 1:21:42

Okay, and then in the hundred mile field, we'll start with the men because there's nothing to talk about here.

SPEAKER_04 1:21:48

There's nothing to talk about.

SPEAKER_01 1:21:50

There is there is no men's field. There is, if you go to the elite runners list on the UTMB Cannon's website, there is no one there.

SPEAKER_00 1:21:58

Yeah. Um it was Dan Green for a hot sec, but then he moved to the 100K and then he got a stress fracture.

SPEAKER_01 1:22:05

Yeah. So anyways, that's notable. But then the women's race here actually it's pretty interesting. We've got Sabrina Stanley, Alyssa Clark, Aroa CO, Devin Yanko, just to name a few. Um any thoughts here?

SPEAKER_00 1:22:20

Amanda Basham.

SPEAKER_02 1:22:21

Amanda Basham.

unknown 1:22:22

Yep.

SPEAKER_00 1:22:24

Yeah, it's kind of like a well, I mean, I mean, this is it's a a race that you run to one, I mean for most of these sponsors, a buy UTMB race win uh is a decent, decent bonus. So that could be there. But also, like this is your qualifier into UTMB.

SPEAKER_02 1:22:49

Yeah, I actually think the Hundred Mile Women's Race is a really great matchup of every single one of those runners that it's pretty even. It's very even, yeah. Like Sabrina's done great at UTMB, Alyssa's done well at UTMB, Devon is really solid and throwing down some awesome training right now, and so is Amanda. I think this has been like really good, consistent builds for both of them. Uh yeah, I think it's I think it's the best Canyon's hundred mile race we've seen yet, for sure.

SPEAKER_00 1:23:21

Yeah. Now they mention it, uh, yeah, that's that's definitely a true statement. This is the best hundred mile field they've had.

SPEAKER_01 1:23:30

Before we go, uh in terms of how people can follow this race, from what I gathered, no live stream this year. I do believe Free Trail is doing pre-immediate post-race coverage, which is great. I don't think any IRO and far updates. So we're kind of we're we're probably relying on Free Trail and then just individual folks out there that are, you know, sticking their phone out. The and UTMB tracking dots.

SPEAKER_00 1:23:52

UTMB tracking dots, okay. With just with which is taken with a grain of salt at this race because people have like disappeared and reappeared many times.

SPEAKER_01 1:24:04

Gosh.

unknown 1:24:05

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:24:07

We're gonna have to bring hashtags back.

SPEAKER_01 1:24:11

Well, guys, this has been awesome. Thank you, Leah. Thank you, Brett. Uh and we should be back. I think we got to schedule it, but probably Monday night to recap. So if you're looking for a recap from us, we are gonna do the best we can over the weekend to get in touch with the race, people on the ground, and we'll come back with some some interpretations of what went down.

SPEAKER_02 1:24:32

I have one more takeaway before we go.

SPEAKER_01 1:24:34

Go, go, go.

SPEAKER_02 1:24:35

I just looked at the hundred mile entrance list, like beyond the elite list, because we know there's a lot of people embedded in there. John Harrison, this year's second place at Run Rabbit Run, who ran a great race. He's on there. So if we're doing podium picks or winning picks, John Harrison for the win.

SPEAKER_00 1:24:51

Go, John. Go, John.