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2026 UTMB Preview | Analysis, Storylines, Predictions
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Note: Kilian Jornet and Jim Walmsley are, unfortunately, out of UTMB this year. This information became public shortly after the recording of this podcast.
Brett Hornig joins me in our Chamonix studio to preview the men's and women's fields at the 2026 Ultra Trail Du Mont Blanc (UTMB).
In both fields, we cover top storylines and what to watch for, we answer some listener mail about the race, provide analysis of top contenders, categorize who we see as candidates for the win, for the podium, and the top 10, and we make bold predictions across a number of other fun categories.
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Single tracks coverage of the 2026 UTMB World Series Finals is brought to you by Norda Precision, Fuel, and Hydration and RAID Research. The single best way you can support our coverage in these next two weeks is by supporting our partners. You can use our discount codes linked in the show notes of these episodes. You can mention us in post-purchase surveys and a lot more, all that good stuff. It helps a ton. A few notes here. Obviously, Norda recently released the 055 shoe model. This is a fantastic trail super shoe, especially, I think, in the multi-day category and in these hundred-mile mountain races. Go check it out. They've also got a new partnership being announced, I believe, on August 26th. So stay tuned on socials for that. Precision, Feel and Hydration, our official nutrition partner of this coverage. They're going to be set up all week in Chamonix as well. They have a ton of athletes racing, including Caleb Olsen, Rachel Entrikken, Rachel Drake, Tyler Green, to name just a few. And then finally, Raid. They have a showroom here in Chamonix from August 24th through the 29th at Stanglard Sports. That will include a range of 2027 prototypes that can be demoed to get your feedback on. They're also selling their LF5L vest, running belts, and current apparel line. So yeah, thank you to Raid, Norda, and Precision Fill and Hydration for making these entire two weeks possible. We're back, day two of our coverage of the 2026 U Tim B World Series Finals. And for the first time ever, in person in Chamonix, I get to be joined by friend, colleague, Brett Horning. Brett, great to have you here.
SPEAKER_00Dude, first time on an airplane. It was crazy. Wait, first time on an airplane?
unknownNo.
SPEAKER_00Not my first time on an airplane. First time in Chamonix, though. And uh I can't believe this place is real. It's it's insane. You did the VK yesterday. I did the VK yesterday because good friend David Laney, he said if you have any jet leg problems, as soon as you get to Chamonix, go do the VK. Cures your jet legs. He was right.
SPEAKER_02Okay.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02And you are racing MCC.
SPEAKER_00Yep, MCC is on Monday. I just uh this morning previewed the last like nine miles of the course to see what the run into Chamonix looks like. And I got to see like the big climb like coming off Coldabaum, so I could at least see like where I'm coming from. And that didn't look real. Um but yeah, it's it's gonna be cool. 40k, I think like like eight or nine thousand feet of climbing.
SPEAKER_02You and I, we've been previewing this race going on five years now, mostly remotely, with this being your first time on the ground. I know it's only been a couple days, but so far, how has being here changed your perception on like how to run this race, what's at stake, all that stuff?
SPEAKER_00The amount of steepness that these trails have brings the paces that I've seen on Strava to a whole nother level. Like I couldn't comprehend the paces that these top men and women were putting down on some of these sections of the course, let alone altogether. And now that I've run a little bit out here, I even further can't comprehend the paces that some of these top runners are putting down on the course. It's it's so fast. And it's one thing to do one climb, one descent pretty fast, but then to be able to just go into mountain after mountain of pretty hard effort running. Because it's different than something like hard rock. Because that was one thing I noticed was when I started running here, I could breathe, which means I could use my legs more, which means my legs get trashed faster. So training the body to be prepared for a race like this is for me, that would be a huge challenge because I I yeah, I've probably already just trashed my MCC chances of success just from the few runs that I've done here because it's been so fun. But like, yeah, there's a lot of climbing and I'm already pretty tired.
SPEAKER_02So for the audience, just to draw out the schedule here, Brett and I will be previewing UTMB, CCC, and OCC. We'll probably record all these at once to give you guys like a week to digest everything. And then immediately following each of those three races, Brett and I will hop back on the pod to do instant reactions. And what's cool is I think we're gonna blend like a bit of watching the live stream with actually like being out in the field at various points to like take it all in. So in past years, it's kind of been like we get to just like analyze what we're seeing before our eyes on the screen, but we'll have a good blend, I think, of like on course insights and like also like the live stream, like in our ears at least.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah, it'll definitely be cool to get both. Um, I know like probably the best way to consume the race overall is just to glue yourself to the live stream, but there might be some opportunities for us to see the front of the races a couple times in different places, and that leads to its own unique viewpoint as well. And the other thing that we never really get to be in when we're at home is the changing weather throughout the three big days of racing.
SPEAKER_02So UTMB preview here, and I want to do something kind of fun. So obviously, UTMB is like sort of like the Super Bowl of our sport in a lot of ways. It's the championship race for the 100-mile mountain ocean trail distance. And you know, UTMB plays such a big role in the sport. I thought it would be cool to go back to January, and between January and today, August 20th, Brett, give you a bullet point list of all of the key news items that have come out of UTMB's uh press org. And I'd maybe just to take mental notes, and then I want to hear, like maybe we pick two or three to rip on. Okay. First, introduced new parenthood policy, which applies to all parents. You can now get refurther deferrals now. A mobility policy. This was somewhat controversial. The policy offered a 30% race lottery bonus to runners who chose the lowest carbon footprint offered by UTMB Go, their new travel calculator. Uh, there's also a mandatory carbon offset fee paid by race participants. Next one, possible crackdown on ambush marketing this year. Frederick talked about this separately in a LinkedIn post. Frederick Leiner from UTMB also said in that same post that UTMB is profitable in 2026. It has about 100 employees. It's committed to a 10,000 runner cap in Chamony each year. And the goal is to have 95 events worldwide by the end of the decade. Their DASIA partnership expired at the end of 2025 and was not renewed. They had this red light policy on headlamps introduced between Notre Dame and Cole de Bonhomme, mostly uphill section, to support wildlife, which are less sensitive to that form of light, apparently. Version two of their index went live. There was a dispute with the local mayor over this long-term sustainability of the event. Significant course changes to OCC twice, I think.
SPEAKER_00Yep.
SPEAKER_02And um unveiling of the elite fields only two weeks pre-race. And then I just got this email today, Brett. UTMB double uh introduces a, I guess they're calling it like a 2X investment in anti-doping controls. I don't know if you got this too.
SPEAKER_00No, I didn't see that one yet.
SPEAKER_02They didn't really get into specifics, but I I pasted this into my notes. Uh they say the goal is simple, the same rules must apply to everyone, regardless of the runner's level or status. This requirement for equity applies to elite athletes and amateurs alike when anti-doping rules apply to their category with a specific adapted framework for younger runners. For this 23rd edition, anti-doping controls will be doubled. This will apply to all races, including the three World Series finals, uh OCC, CCC, and UTMB, as well as all runners from elites to age group categories. So they didn't get into specifics about what doubling means, whether it's the pre-existing policy just extended out with more resources, but there's a more money to spend on drug tests and I guess so.
SPEAKER_00I mean, I guess maybe that just gives them the flexibility to drug test more people as they as they feel like. What sticks out the pregnancy deferral or the family one? That's cool. Uh there's been a lot of talk about the like mandatory carbon offset thing. Like I don't know if we were previewing UTMB back when UTMB was kind of heralded as like a pretty cheap 100-miler. Compared to Western states and a lot of the other US ones. It was like, wow, you could go do UTMB for 150 bucks. That's amazing. And then now, like having gone through just like the MCC registration, it it's like I felt like it was like signing up for like internet or phone service where they were like, do you want to bundle this in? Do you want to tack this on? Do you want this? Do you want like home, auto, RV, and motorcycle insurance? I was like, and they're like, I'm like, no. And it's like it's like the Valentine's card. It's like, do you like me? Yes or yes. Like, do you do you do you want to pay for this carbon offset? Yes or yes. Oh, you're coming from the US? Bummer. Um so I don't really know, like, like once you give them the money, like, then what? Um, so you kind of just have to take their word on it. But it's an interesting policy. Like on the surface, it seems like a good thing, but like just have no idea. And it did make all the races quite a bit more expensive to go do.
SPEAKER_02And then for the media, they just sort of said, like, no cost, just like think about your travel.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, like if you're on a plane, just like beat yourself up about it for the next 12 hours. Like, go look out your window. Look at those chemtrails. See what you've got to do. Try and cry a few tears on them.
SPEAKER_02I I mean, great ones. I the one that sticks out for me is this dispute with the mayor. I don't know how much you've been following the story, but apparently the newly elected mayor in Shamini campaigned specifically on this like anti-UTMB platform and says that like he represents a coalition of voters in this valley who are like vehemently against this event, want to see changes made, want to see downsizing in like the near, like the very near future. Like, I guess you know, everything is already put in motion for the 2026 edition, so there's not much that you can undo. But like the language that he's using suggests that in 2027 moving forward, there could be like significant changes to like how this event operates, like in the middle of the night, for example, the number of people in it total, how we move about the valley. And my first thought for this was like uh it was a little bit of shock. Again, like I don't know this issue in a 360 way completely, but like just thinking about Sham, what it is, I see this as sort of like a resort town. A lot of people here, this is like their third or fourth home. I feel like almost every week in this valley, whether it's in in ski season or in the summer, even in the shoulder seasons, it's like ridiculously busy. So I I'm so curious to know like how much busier is UTMB week versus Marathon du Mont-Blanc week or like peak ski season. I would love I mean I haven't been here on those weeks, but yeah, um how much of a how much of a problem is it?
SPEAKER_00It might not be too much of a problem in town, but like all the trails and everything up here get quite a bit busier than maybe normal peak season. Like, yeah, my maybe it's not any busier in town, but it's a lot busier everywhere else, which yeah, it could be a pain if you live here. The other thing too is like to it to a degree, I understand that at some point there needs to be pushback against the growth of this and any race. Because there is a point where it's like okay, it's too big, there's too much just circus media mayhem going on. It's not it's not cool anymore. Um so like it there will be there's a point where it's you figure out okay, this is the sweet spot for people in this race, you know. Because it's like just because you can have I'm really curious about like the London Marathon next year where they're doing back-to-back days with 50,000 people each day. Can they do it? Maybe they can, but was it good? Can they really get the course ready again for the second day? Or is like 50,000 people just gonna be slipping on gator aid cups?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, a hundred, I mean that's a hundred thousand people in 48 hours. It is roads, which is a different consideration. We're looking at 10,000 runners spread out over a week. It's a lot of bodily fluids.
SPEAKER_00A lot. And you know, too, and you can scale that down, but same, same deal. Here you have like a week of races where like the trails just start getting pounded week after week after week. And it's like, can things get back to better than they were before from a trail condition standpoint in one calendar year?
SPEAKER_02All great points. Yes, I think and this is for like the audience. If anyone in the audience knows these answers, my two biggest open questions are what is the distribution between the people here who are like in permanent residents versus permanent residents who are feeling this pain? Um what what is the tipping point? Like what is the number? I think like it I'd have to go back and see like what the mayors discussed, but I would love to know like what their office sees as sort of like the number where like the tipping point becomes unsustainable. And then 367 runners. I guess I gotta like at some point we gotta I guess we gotta break the Western State cycle and check out Marathon du Mont Blanc because I think that event rivals this in size to some extent. It's it's chiller and it's just confined to this valley, but it's massive. And then peak ski season too. I would like, I'd just love to know the feel of the area.
SPEAKER_00So we need to do like three or four scouting trips back to Chemini throughout the year with some more cap trails for science. For science. And there'll be no mobility policy.
SPEAKER_02Yes.
SPEAKER_00Brett, uh, your top one of your top storylines for UTMB this year. I'm trying to think. So when we did our power rankings episode, we had a couple interesting storylines, and I'm trying to think between then and now, if any of those storylines have changed, and there's definitely one, one major one, and that's the addition of Courtney DeWalter. I think it was was it like two days after we still days, yeah. Um Courtney is racing UTMB. I feel like that's bigger than just adding one person to the start list. You know, it's like one of the greatest to ever do it at UTMB, who might be racing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder to make people forget about last year's tenth place.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, for those that don't remember, was leading this race through Cormeyer last year, ultimately fell to 10th place. Kind of blew up. Blew up, but is coming off a new course record victory at Hard Rock, uh a second place at Kokadona, where she ran under the pre-existing course record, and a win at uh which was a very exciting win.
SPEAKER_00Yes. In not typical Courtney racing fashion. Like it was a sit-and-kick victory sort of deal. And yeah, I feel like this is one of not this isn't the best season Courtney's ever had, but it's up there. Like it's far from a bad season. You have two wins and then a second at Coca Dona to like a second to one of the you know, one of the best trail performances of the year or multiple years. You roll that, and Courtney has historically not had much issue with the Hard Rock UTMB double. Um I think part of that is due to Hard Rock being so high up, you know, forces you to go slower, might be a little bit quicker recovery time from that. You can leverage some super compensation effect to it and get over here. So do you foresee Courtney doing anything but normal Courtney things at this race?
SPEAKER_02So it's interesting. And a lot of times in other sports, with the greats in those sports, a lot of the commentators are obsessed with predicting the cliff. Like with Tom Brady, the last 10 years of his career, that was like the cliff is happening. This is the year the cliff's happening. And I think 2026, we're I'm actually I think it's been a bit of a resurgence.
SPEAKER_00Is this the Tampa Bay according to Walters' career? Like we get like what, three or four like high-level years.
SPEAKER_02I mean, I've I'm starting to wonder if that 2023 triple took a little bit more time to recover from, but it wasn't necessarily like a career death now. It was just like she needed like through 2025 to absorb it and like maybe like she has a bit of like I think that marathon training block over a ton, really smart. She became a different and in some ways better and more skilled runner coming into this year. So I mean, I totally agree with that storyline. And I think that this women's field, there are many, there are actually many. I think the women's race, it's not necessarily wide open because I think that Ruth Croft is a very credible and deserving like defender of you know winning here again, but I think you have to put Courtney in that category. She's absolutely contending for the win, regardless of what happened at UT ⁇ B last year.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I agree. Because I don't see why, I don't see any scenario why Courtney wouldn't be at the front or in the front pack to start. You know, I don't I don't see why Courtney would hang back because Courtney historically has just never raced like that. Like that's just the way she races. And even maybe not even feeling great last year, still went for it. Like almost almost a show-up or blow-up sort of racing uh strategy, except Courtney just wins most of the time. So seeing her not win is very abnormal, but I'm I'm I'm curious if there's gonna be anyone who tries to sneak off the front.
SPEAKER_02I mean, this is I think this is gonna be one of the benefits of us being in the field next week. I and I I want to say Courtney was a part of this group, but I was at Notre Dame last year, which is about 15 miles into the course, 25-ish K, and it had started the downpour, and it was it had it was 9 p.m. So it like had just gotten dark. And I was taking mental notes of all the runners at the front of the field who had already changed into their cold weather kit. And it was like people like Abby Hall, Emily Hoggett, I think Courtney was in that group of runners that did not. They ran, and I think it it's like we can take notes next Friday into Saturday as to like who is actually in that presence of mind to like use that gear properly in a timely fashion. Because I think I'm sure they put it on, you know, at Cold Ebonome or Down Delicia Pew, but like you need to put it on there.
SPEAKER_00That's one thing I've actually noticed just by being here for two and a half days now, is how important it can be to have good gear in the mountains, but how tricky it can actually be to decide when to put it on or not, because you remember last night how hard it was raining? I was awake at 12:30 because it was absolutely pissing me. It was intimidating. It there was thunder, it was so loud, and I was like, oh my gosh, people would be like six hours into like only six hours into UTMB, and this is just coming down. So I'm like, oh man, I'd be throwing everything out. Two minutes later, it was completely gone. So then you're like, well, now I have to stop and take everything off again, or else I'm gonna overheat. What if another one comes? Then you keep playing this time-wasting game of putting all your clothes on, taking all your clothes off. But what if the one time you decide, no, the storm's gonna pass in five minutes, I'll be fine. It doesn't. Um, yeah, it was like I was getting in my own head just thinking about it, being like, I don't know when to put a rain jacket on.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, Ruth Croft, we talked about this in the Power Ingers episode, but last year, Ruth Croft uh, in large part credited her victory at U Timby this past year to an experience at Trans Vulcani earlier in the year when she was caught in a massive, like the entire course that day was just caught in a massive downpour. And I don't think she um I don't think she used her gear responsibly. And that was like the wake-up call. She's like, that is exactly what I needed to figure out in the dress rehearsal. And she was one of those people that was like kitted up leaving Notre Dame.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Yeah, so it'll be interesting. We're still a little too far out to really make calls on the weather. It's been super hot these last few days. Like we're dying over here in the studio, but I just found out from me that the weather channel's the most accurate predictor here. Yeah, and now I'm starting to realize that I got my Google weather app on my Pixel here, and it's been reading like 10 to 15 degrees cooler than actual and uh over here. I'm just thinking that I'm just hot when you know it said it was like 72 yesterday, but then The actual high was almost 90. And going up the VK at 11 a.m. Cause I was like, well, I can run, I can do the VK at 11. And then I'm going up and I'm sun's at my back and it's 90 something degrees. I was like, dude, I suck. I'm so hot right now. Turns out it actually was hot.
SPEAKER_02So dude, I'm convinced there's a placebo effect to these weather apps because I was under the impression all day that it was a high of 79. And then I talked to you at the end of the day, like it was 90 degrees today. I was like, dude, I thought it was 78 or 79.
SPEAKER_00It is weird how numbers, data can just get in your head. Um, I think we see that a lot of times with racing too. People get too caught up on splits, and either that forces them to go out too hard and make bad decisions in the race to stay on a plan, or it holds them back. And they stick to something no matter what, when in reality there's especially at a race like UTMB, there's so many ebbs and flows across the race where you kind of have to vibe it out to a degree.
SPEAKER_02Brett, I'm gonna give you my storyline or one of them.
SPEAKER_00Okay.
SPEAKER_02We talk about this all the time on the podcast, but my headline is the blue-collar counter narrative to professionalization. So we've talked a bunch about like Leah Yingling, Rachel Drake, like they hold down like demanding full-time jobs and their parents, a couple Europeans that our audience might not be aware of. Yannick Noel, who got seventh last year, is a baker. So he gets up at 2 a.m. every day to go bake. Ben Yat Marmy Sol fits landing gear on Airbus A320s, and he won Diagonal de Fuet 41 a couple years back. And I think he podium to Hard Rock too in 23. He's he's racing. Yeah. Chris, this is CCC, but Christian Minoggio is a damn keeper. Of course, Von Saint Bouillard won this race two years ago with a full-time engineering job at Hoka. Like, what do you think? Is it is it blue collar this year or is it uh I mean, I'm starting to call them green collar. If you're if you're a professional trail runner, you're a green collar worker.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean, I'm I'm looking at my like notable names list, and more of these people than not are full-time runners. Like quite a bit more, but I think there's always going to be a couple that buck the trend. And I guess the question is like if they were presented with a opportunity to go full-time pro, would they take it? It seems like we're seeing more and more people taking it.
SPEAKER_02Ludo became a better, an even better runner when he quit his job.
SPEAKER_00I'd be a yeah, Rachel's good. I think if if you have the right group of people in your corner, if you've got the right team that can help you figure out what to do with all your free time, I think most people become better runners when all they have to do is run. But you can't just we see this all the time in other professional sports where you get like the you know, five million dollar rookie contract, but no one's ever given any of these young athletes advice on what to do with all their money. And then, you know, you you know, you're like what is it? Shaq like blew his whole rookie contract in like six months, but then he realized, like, oh, this isn't gonna work, like went to school, learned how to actually manage his money. Like, you go full-time pro runner, you need to learn how to manage your time. Someone needs to teach you how to do that. But if you can do that properly, you're gonna get better at running.
SPEAKER_02Next one here. I'm I'm saying this again, subjective. I believe this men's race is wide open. I agree. I think it's wide open. I think you've got the two knee injury legends, Jim Walmsley and Killian Jordanette looming over this field, and of course, Ben Dieman returning hungry after second place last year. But I think it's totally up in the air. And then you've got Von Sant chasing history. He could be the first person since Killian in 2011 to win both Western UTMB in the same year, but I think it's wide open on the men's side, on the men's side, but it's wide open.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. No, looking at this list, it's like if we had a healthy gym, healthy Killian, I would say it's not wide open. But because there's I would say the question marks surrounding them are even bigger now than pre-Western states. You know, we both had them at the top spots of our Western states power rankings, and then we didn't have either of them on our UTMB ones because it's like, well, we saw them, we saw them at Western states, and there's not that much time between then and now. Normally you need to like roll a good race into UTMB, and that didn't happen. So it's like, well, how could they possibly be even more prepared for UTMB than they were for Western states? Um yeah, further leaving things even more open for 12 other people here.
SPEAKER_02Next one for me, the triple crown chase, and this does span like all three races OCC, CCC, UTMB, but Ruth Croft last year became the first woman to win OCC, CCC, UTMB in her career. Uh, we've got three people this year actively chasing that same set. So John Albin, he won OCC in 21, CCC in 23. Now he just needs UTMB. Um Xavier is the only guy on the men's side to ever do it. Blondine Lirandel, OCC in 21, CCC in 22. She's racing this year. She needs UTMB. Walmsley needs CCC, he's currently in UTMB. So one of these years, Walmsley's got to go do CCC. But I think that's kind of cool. That's a fun little tidy to track.
SPEAKER_00Yep, yep, definitely. And that definitely is like the smallest, like one of the smallest groupings of runners. And I like that there's at least a few that have done it because we know that it's possible. I'm curious if it's going to get harder to do as we sometimes talk about further specialization of these events. But then you have people like Francesco who prove us wrong. I know the storylines are behind. Yeah, I mean, I mean, one of the biggest ones that that I've I'm you know I've been thinking about for 12 months is can Ruth do the double? It just is it almost feels like it's easier to win to repeat win western states than UTMB, mostly because it's more predictable that we kinda we know what western states is gonna be like next year. Like almost guaranteed we can give a pretty precise temperature range, pretty precise snow levels, you almost know exactly what you're gonna get on race day from a weather standpoint. And from here, it's like things could be all over the place. We have somewhat significant course changes, um, but it's just longer. So it's like you throw all those into account. It almost then feels like to an extent, you need more luck to to have a good day at UTMB, it seems like.
SPEAKER_02I would also love to know, and I I think this would be really hard to figure out the data for, but I would I get the sense just subjectively, anecdotally, that more top athletes spend more time in this area ahead of time preparing for the race than Western.
SPEAKER_00Having been here for a solid two and a half days now, I think that's insanely valuable. We see people spend lots of like we see people spending more time on the Western States course. And I feel like it's even more valuable to spend time out on this UTMB course because it's it's more demanding. It's harder to get the like exact numbers of climbing and descending here. One of the things that uh the race kind of shows, Strava doesn't show it at all. And now I'm seeing it here is you see the vert numbers for the response across all the races, the ratios. What you don't really see on Strava because of elevation profile gets so compacted, is how mellow the run ins and out of a lot of towns are. Like, there's a surprising amount of flatter running for how much climbing there is. Like you spend a like a couple miles coming in and out of each town, and there's still this much climbing, that climbing is that much steeper and harder, and it just doesn't show on the internet quite that way.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. And so I think I think that all of that, just the the the level of focus on this race, I think makes title defense even that much more harder.
SPEAKER_00I think so too. And it's hard to stay upright on these trails. Like for how competitive and how fit and how fast you have to go, that is what increases the technicality. Like, I don't think trails are inherently technical just by like how many rocks are on them. It's a big variable is how fast are you going across them? And for the people trying to win this race, for how technical these trails are, now that's really technical. And when you have to keep hammering all the way down through, like even just the final descent right here off of La Floria, coming out, there's lots of spots to fall. That's messy. There's um, and I now understand why people fall and break fingers and stuff. Like Marianne last year said dislocated fingers because I get that now because you put a handout, you don't get like a nice just patch of decomposed granite to scrape yourself on. Like you hit like cheese gratered, it's it's gross.
unknownOkay.
SPEAKER_02Let's go to the men's field. We'll break down this field. I've got four categories for us. I've got the favorites, I've got just notable returners, who we see as dark horses, and then question marks. Okay. I'm gonna rattle off favorites and let me know if you think I'm missing anyone for this category. I've got Ben Diemen, Hannes Namberger, Josh Wade, Vincent Bouillard, Baptiste Sang, and John Albin.
SPEAKER_01Those are my six favorites for this men's field.
SPEAKER_00You don't have Killian or Jim in the favorites category? Are they more your question marks? They're my question marks. They're your question marks.
unknownOkay.
SPEAKER_00And okay. Yeah, I think that's a fair favorites list. And, you know, if I were to try and break that down, I would say a lot of that is really solid race results and a past history at UTMB.
SPEAKER_02Everyone here has completed UTMB at least once. So you're not you're not throwing any UTMB rookie. Actually, sorry, John Albin is a rookie. Not he's not a rookie at UTMB, but he has not completed the full loop. Yeah, because he's he did you try last? No, uh, two years ago. I think he's dropped once. I have to go check, fact check me, but John is the only person on this list that has not completed the loop yet.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and I guess the last Font won UTMB on his first try.
SPEAKER_01Yep.
SPEAKER_00As a rookie. So it's not not impossible, but I would say that having the loop experience and not just like reckying the course, but like getting to mile 90 at mile 90 fatigue is something you can only do by completing the loop.
SPEAKER_02And everyone here has also had solid progressions. Like for Ben Dieman, it's been DNF, DNF, then major breakthrough second, Hannes Namberger, it's been eighth, sixth, fourth. Josh Wade DNF to 11th, third, Bonsaint with the win, Baptiste got second here in 24. Um, so yeah, they've they've basically I put them in the favorites category because they're they've either a one or they're really knocking on the door and they have so much experience.
SPEAKER_00What category did you put Zach Miller in?
SPEAKER_02I put Zach Miller in my dark horse category.
SPEAKER_00It's kind of interesting that he's like to me in between the dark horse and favorites category. Absolutely. Because I would say he's in the dark horse category prior to the season that he's had. Because it's like, well, if Zach's on the star list, you're not gonna not mention his name. But then all of a sudden he's been racing phenomenal this year. And you know, you gotta think, like, well, where's the when does the fatigue set in? But I mean, Zach he's gotta know himself pretty well at this point. So it's like if he came away from Western States okay and able to start running again and training, it's like, well, I doubt he's here to do anything but try and win the race.
SPEAKER_02It's just crazy. I mean, and this is all public knowledge, and he talked about it on our podcast, but like as as recently as January and February this year, like his knee was in almost as frustrating a place as Jim and Killian's knees. Like he wasn't able to do his goal race of Tarwir. Like he had and then I believe Kinz was a dice roll. So I feel like he's been, and it does seem like he's healthy and he's training well, but he's been riding that line all season. And it's been a complete season in terms of the number of races and quality results.
SPEAKER_00It almost seems like for him though, his knee he notices the knee more in training. And maybe it's maybe Zach's just better at not starting the races. Whereas it seems like like like Jim and Killian both like didn't finish Western States because they had issues going on. Um but if Zach is able to do the training he wants to do, it makes me now feel pretty confident that his knee is going to cooperate on race day. Because it doesn't seem like he's had much for knee issues in the actual races. So if he's like done, I mean, I'm gonna go peep his strava right now. Like it is so if he's done training and he seems healthy, I'm throwing him. You should buy it. I'm throwing him in my favorites category.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and I I mean, just to talk about experience, I mean that second place a few years back to Jim. I I think it's great to have in his memory how deep into that race he led the entire field. It's similar to like Marianne and Katie a few years back when he knows. I mean, Mary Ann was leading very late.
SPEAKER_00So Zach's been running a lot. Give me a big week. Twenty-four hours, 114 miles, 35,000 feet of climbing. Um 26, 27 hours, 106 miles, 37,000 feet of climbing. He's had is he in Bend? He did five of these in a row. Uh no, Colorado. Okay. 24 hours. Is he in the springs? 32,000. Yeah, these last three weeks were in the springs. Yeah, even last week was 20 hours with 31 grand of climbing. I mean, yeah, Zach's been Zach's been running just fine, it seems. Um the other thing I'm just looking at. He made his own red light headlamp. That's sick. He has a headlamp, which is like a little slider piece of like red film that goes over it. He's not a night.
SPEAKER_02Is he oh he's a moonlight. What's the what's his uh headlamp partner? It's like moonlight.
SPEAKER_00He's not a nice one. This is like a Milwaukee Home Depot headlamp with a piece of red tape over it. Oh, I love Zach. That's that's incredible.
SPEAKER_02Okay, I I do I do I think you're you're selling me on Zach in the favorites category. So I I would add him. In my in my notable returners category, I've got Rod Farvard, Canyon Woodward, Cody Lind, Yannick Noel. And I'll just say a couple. I think all of these guys have been on similarly excellent trajectories. Rod, I mean, he took ninth here last year, and before that, I mean, worked his way in like the top, I could top 20 in. Cody Lind was seventh here in 24, 16th last year, but again, like sticking in that really respectable zone. Yannick was seventh and tenth here the last two years. He's the baker I was talking about. Um so I, you know, five of the top 10 return this year. I I didn't mention uh Zha Shang Shen here as well. So it's it's Demon, Yannick, Rod, Shah Shang, and Josh who are back. And I think I see guys like Rod and Yannick and Josh Shang as like I feel confident that they can repeat those performances from last year. So they're notable in that respect. But I but it's also tough because I feel like Rod is a guy who like he's he's just as competitive as anybody, and he's not here to get seventh.
SPEAKER_00I can't imagine he's gonna race the same as last year. Last year's race was so controlled and conservative, he let everyone go, and then he did like a classic I'm racing to get into the top ten sort of thing. I I I haven't talked to him, but I doubt that's you know what he wants to do again this year, because like that's at UTMB, there's no value in that. I mean if there's sponsor value, but it's not like you get an auto invite back for getting ninth place. So probably just go try and win. Who are your dark horses? Well, two names that I'm curious about that hasn't been mentioned yet are the the pow pow one-two punch of Caleb Olson and Chris Myers from Western States last year.
SPEAKER_02Caleb is in my free it's it's like borderline dark horse question marks section. And it has it has everything to do exclusively just with the last six months coming back from injury. But I also think Caleb is an extreme talent and he's one of the ultimate gamers. And I don't think he's on this start line if he doesn't have a degree of confidence that he can rise for the occasion. And we talked with him pre-race, and I think it was a really great sign that he basically felt the same ten days out from this race as he did 10 days out from Western States last year.
SPEAKER_00And surely being out here in these mountains brings a little more joy to the training and everything. Yes. The one thing that I'm curious about Caleb is I know he loves mountains. He's like born and raised climbing mountains, but the last few years he's shown that he's really good at racing, like hilly-runnable stuff. And I'm curious if he will be able to prove that he can be like the athlete that he wants to be in the mountains. That's like on par with just his love for the mountains and love for clock. Because oftentimes they don't overlap. And I hope for Caleb that they overlap because I want to see him be a really good mountain runner. And you'd have to dive pretty far back into the you know to the ultra sign-up. But Caleb is actually no stranger to the UTMB race, as he has two good CCC finishes back when back when he was a nobody.
SPEAKER_02Two great CCC finishes, 17th and 11th. I think he was top American the second year. And then uh I I call it a recon mission, but he's he was here for two weeks last year, too. Just hanging out around the area, previewing sexual. He did Mount Blanc twice in two days. Yeah, I've never. I mean, he's I yeah, I think that this setting for him is exactly where he feels maybe like the most inspired and creative in the sport. And yeah, I think just question marks just because of the injury timeline, but it it also wouldn't surprise me if he wins this year or podiums. I feel very confident that at some point in the next three years he will be a UTMB champion.
SPEAKER_00I don't know if it's this year. I don't think Caleb is the type of athlete that needs to gain confidence by racing.
unknownYeah.
SPEAKER_00That's why I have more confidence in him potentially nailing it, even after essentially not having a good race in over, like a really good race in over a year, or having stepped on like a big, big star line.
SPEAKER_02I also think whether he'd say it or not, I think if you look at Broken Arrow early this summer, Speed Goat, I think Caleb's trained through all of it, and he's had really consistent, high-quality, UT and B specific training. And I don't think I think he was able to contextualize the roles that those two races played.
SPEAKER_00Which is what he did before his Western States win. He did 350Ks, and I don't even know if he won any of them. Yeah. Like that would totally get in my head. And or I'd force myself to win. Caleb could have won those races, but he didn't because that wasn't the point of those races. And that kind of discipline and confidence in yourself is really important to have when there's a lot of time to get in your head out on a course like this.
SPEAKER_02Caleb is in very good company because the other two question marks for me are Jim Walmsley and Killian Jornet. Jim has the highest index in this field, but he's also got three DNFs and six starts here, and he hasn't finished anything since September of last year, so almost going on a year. And then Killian, 43rd at Zagama. He hurts, his knee hurts like going up and down stairs, dropped at Western, skipped Sears and all. So I like these are two of the greatest runners in our sport ever. And I mean, we've even talked in past episodes for Killian how even when he's hurt, he's still capable of winning races. But like, I think this is the most uh
SPEAKER_00Debilitating.
SPEAKER_02Dilitating, we've ever seen him.
SPEAKER_00Okay, so if you're building your cross-country team, you know, you're building the top seven, and like, you know, we're doing like recess style picking of teams, and you have to put Jim or Killian on your team. And you're you're not allowed to just double down and pick both. Is there one that you can more confidently put on your squad? Do I have is it are we just focusing on the context of this year?
SPEAKER_02Yeah. I think in this current moment, I'm taking Jim.
SPEAKER_00I think I lean that same way too. Jim seems a little bit less beat up.
SPEAKER_02I don't think either of them have anything left to prove in their careers, but I think if I had to guess, I would imagine Jim feels more anxiety than Killian does about his resume. And I think he still feels hungry for a bit more.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and Killian's doing it because he just loves to do it.
SPEAKER_02Uh and then my dark horses were yeah, Caleb was on sort of that fringe dark horse question mark, but I also had Drew Holman, Theodettien, who led through Cormeyer last year, and Arthur Joyo Bouillon, who has three top 10 UTMBs this decade. So he's just solid. Um I think I mean Drew's coming off a podium at CCC last year, a pretty heroic finish of UTMB two years ago. I think he did it in like 24 and change. He's the old I think him and Caleb are very similar in terms of their mental toughness and ability to like rise to the occasion competitively. Um so I I think really like I I could it would not surprise me if Drew podiums this race. And then I just think Theodettien is so interesting. Like, what a ballsy race last year. Ben Dieman and Tom Evans like rope him in after Cormayer. But like, yeah, to solo this thing for the first like 50, 60 miles of the race, especially in those conditions, was pretty cool.
SPEAKER_00I think Chris Myers is like top five or DNF. He's had a great year so far. And he's had a solid year. And I the big one that stands out for me is the win at Mount Fuji. What do you run it in? 17 hours and 50 minutes. I don't know the situation.
SPEAKER_02And I think it's a little bit of a change course, but that's still a great time.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Plus just winning another 100 miler after such a massive it really almost felt for a minute like Western States 2025 was going to be like the peak of his career because then he like DNF'd the next two races and did Black Canyon 50k and was like, oh, I'm just training through it. I'm like, well, that's okay. And then and then he goes and wins Fuji. Wins just don't come that often as a as a runner in this sport. So to get a win and to kind of get that monkey off your back of winning a hundred in an international one, I think that would help with the overall stress levels a lot.
SPEAKER_02Is Chris in your top five power rankings? In your updated power rankings? Like where where are you like because obviously the mojo, he's got the big mo, as we say in politics.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. If I put him in my top ten, who am I leaving out? You know, I gotta this is my old top ten, and there's a couple names that I'm flipping around. Um like I'm I'm moving Zach up in my in my rankings just because a couple weeks like you can have three good weeks of training, but then to put to have six good weeks of training, I think that's over twice as hard to do.
SPEAKER_02See, I think confidence about these athletes, the the biggest sign of confidence for these athletes is when you don't even think about who else needs to be included or excluded. Yeah, it's just like I'm not thinking it's Jim and Killing, I don't care. Like, I'll figure it out after the fact. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it's it's I still got Chris in my top 10 for the power rankings. On my like fantasy free trail ballot, I think it's gonna be one of those like when's the race start? 545. 545 on uh so it'll be like a 5.40 p.m. coin flip. Well, benefit of being here and shimmy, I'm gonna go down to the star line and just look at them.
SPEAKER_02Oh yeah.
SPEAKER_00I'm just gonna because they have to sit there for 45 minutes. Yeah. I'm just you know what I mean? I'm gonna go down there and like sell little bags that runners can pee in for like 50 bucks a oh dude. Because everyone always likes the race starts, and then you just see on the live stream just everyone's stepping off as soon as it hits trail to go pee. And I'm gonna be like, pea bags, it's your pea bags here.
SPEAKER_02Did you have any other question marks besides Jim Killian? Was there any other question marks for you?
SPEAKER_00You know, I mean, outside of the people who are like Strava dim or Strava Dark. No, I mean, one of the people who I'm always genuinely curious about for their racing is Jonathan Albin. Yeah. Because he's always been one of the greatest students of our sport in terms of checking every box and training and every different modality that's exists. And I think that's always been really cool. And that's led to some absolutely incredible performances. Yep. You know, I mean, he's some of his best races, you know, he's had some of the best races of anyone in this field. You know, I think some of his best results rival some of like Jim and Killian's best results.
SPEAKER_01Oh, yeah.
SPEAKER_00He just hasn't had them nearly as consistently. So it's like if he is all of a sudden in the shape of his life and he has it over a hundred mile distance, John Alvin can win the race.
SPEAKER_02He ran 1014 at CCC all the way back in the dark ages of 2023, which is a time that would still be relevant today. That was his last good result here. So, yeah, just to confirm from earlier, he did DN, he started but DNF'd UTMB last year.
SPEAKER_00Okay. Yeah. Because I remember we we have mentioned before that like he is going, he's one of the few people that can be a triple crown champion.
SPEAKER_02And he did just DNF Marathon Du Mont Blanc in June. But earlier this year, one Transgrand Canaria, won the Snowdonia 50k, and won the seven peaks. I think this is a fell race in Great Britain. So through May, like really solid, and then yeah, just a blip there for Marathon Du Mont Blanc.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so it's like okay. John Albin, question mark category.
SPEAKER_01Um women's favorites. What do you got?
SPEAKER_00Oh, I guess actually before we move on, the last name that I'm also very curious about is Ben Dieman. Like we both had him. We both had him in number one in our power rankings. Yeah. Is he still in your number one in the power rankings? Has anyone done anything in the last two weeks to change your mind otherwise?
SPEAKER_02Somehow I think this race is both absolutely wide open, yet I also feel that this is his race to lose.
SPEAKER_00It does feel like it's his race to lose. And I think part of that is just because he got second last year and Tom isn't returning to defend his title. And it's really seems like Ben is a better runner than last year. So therefore, he must be like recency bias. It seems like he's the person to be. And he's had a really good year of running.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, listening to him talk about what he did between September of last year and now, I think he's a different runner. I think he's a better runner. I think he worked on all of his weaknesses. He took on a strength coach who fixed a ton of muscle imbalances. I think he was he, I think I don't remember the exact number, but he was he was able to significantly increase his total workload, like week over week, block over block, over the past 12 months, purely because he was in the gym more, like working on that stuff. And it it didn't come at any cost. Like he, I think he felt the same, the same like toll from it that he did from like lower workloads.
SPEAKER_00He didn't have to like reduce his running in order to increase the gym.
SPEAKER_02No. Much better run. I I think he was humble about why he lost that race to Tom and open to what he needed to improve on.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, like he said, he was just he was like, well, I wasn't good enough. And I think that's you know, that's a really mature answer. But does he have the right shoe for this race? I mean, clearly Ben has strong ankles. He's athletic. Oh, and like he might already be running in the next version of Meta Fuji. Yeah, for all we know. I mean, he could be in the speed three, so it's got some sidewalls. A heel cup. Um, so I feel like it's gonna take a pretty long time for this men's race to shake out. Just because there's there's enough people, there's enough fitness where there can be a pretty dense pack through Cormayer.
SPEAKER_02I always hope for that. Yeah. And somehow like at the like Hans talked about this. He was shocked when he thought that he made a very reasonable move early at Western States, and like the only guy that matched it was Jim. This was like at the escarpment. Yeah, and he was going into like Duncan and Robinson thinking that it would be mayhem, and he was like the only guy, and he could like take time filling his bottles and stuff. Like, I do genuinely wonder with this men's race, like, will it be a Peloton? Like, yeah, do you do you think good chance we'll see a Peloton through like Cormire, or is it gonna be pretty spread?
SPEAKER_00I mean, I also said that there was gonna be a giant group at Western States, and then Hans blew that up. The thing with this race is there's even more depth. Like, there's more good runners here, so you would have to try even harder to get yourself off the front. And it it just doesn't, it doesn't make any sense to me, especially now that we're looking at it hindsight. Like from Western states, like it didn't work. So who's who's gonna try it? We see it, I mean, we see it in the Tour de France every single stage. Someone tries to win it early on, and maybe once per tour, it works. So, and that was their best chance at winning a tour stage, because if they waited and then had to go like blow for blow with Jim or Zach or John Albin late, it's not happening. But if I can get out early and get forgotten about and then fade at the same rate, they all fade, yeah, maybe it'll happen.
SPEAKER_02I am trying to pull up the elite entrance list here because I want to just follow up on something we talked about in our power rankings episode, which I think was really funny. Okay. So if I am ex-bionic on the eve of Western States, I am asking their athlete Tebo Marquet, who has an index score of 872, which is a little bit down, but still kind of the category, just blow it up the first 50k.
SPEAKER_00What's in it for him? Like, yeah, are we are we getting incentives? Like every aid station that you make it to in the lead, you get $5,000 extra dollars.
SPEAKER_02I I believe that the exposure for X Bionic in the first 50k of this course with one of their athletes leading it is easily worth 50 grand.
SPEAKER_00With the amount of people that watch this race, you might be right. And we might need to see something like that happen. We might need to see more of that because if you get more of that, now you have an eight-person breakaway group and not just one person.
SPEAKER_02So there's a couple brands in here which I feel like could use the spotlight. And I want to see X Bionic take charge here. That'd be sick. Okay, let's do Women's Field. I'll uh just returners five of the top ten return. Ruth, Anna Carlson, Luthia Bartholomew, Claudia Tromps, Courtney DeWalter. I'll list some favorites. I've got Ruth Croft, Courtney DeWalter, Soon Maya Buddha, amazing name, and Blandy and Lirondell. Any other favorites?
SPEAKER_00Lucy has had a really good year. Amazing year. And has improved at UTMB each of the last two years. Tenth, tenth, seventh. And last year, seventh, amazing, but she was also. But like those two tenths are not created equal. Like the set, then the most recent tenth place, way better than she's evolved with the sport. Yeah. And so if you can evolve with the sport, get 10th twice, that means you got better. But then to go from 10th to 7th, that means you improved even faster that the rate of than the rate of the sport is improving. And it seems like she's doing like it's almost like an exponential type curve right now for Lucy. And it seems like Lucy's year has been better than last year leading up to this race.
SPEAKER_02Second at both Trans Vulcania and Lavareto each time was behind a course record winner. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00So that's like, okay, if not for that, you're winning the race. Yep. So like I'm I like wanting to throw Lucy like into the like I don't know if I'm saying favorites category, but like disruptor category.
SPEAKER_02I felt like she was in a position last year to podium. If it wasn't for that fall in the knee injury, I think that last year we could have been talking about a Lucy Bartholomew podium. And I I think that she's only better than she was last year. So I think you might you might be convincing me here, like you did with Zach. I think we could throw Lucy into that. I think it's I think it's high time. She's I mean, very few people in the field have more experience than she does. Yeah. She's done so many in both in training and racing. I mean, I wonder if she's done over 25 loops of this course in the last five years. Wouldn't surprise me.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and yeah, course knowledge, like being able to just zip in and out of each of the aid stations, knowing where everything is, not having being on autopilot, like not having to think about all of the turns that you have to make coming in and out of the towns through to the aid stations, would be really nice. Because we see it on the live stream. There's some athletes who are just running and they're just zipping through the alleyways. Because you don't take the main roads. Like you'd think that you would might take the main roads to get to some of these aid stations. Uh, like even just when I did the MCC course when we came through Argentiere, it was like getting because you do a little out and back at the aid station. Getting through that and out of that was like not the way I would have naturally come through it. And I'm gonna have to be like looking out for the flagging and watching where people are going. Um, fortunately, I don't have to deal with any sort of nighttime running where it's just even easier to mess something up. But just to not have to use that extra brain space and you know, basically wonder if you're getting lost right before you get into an aid station, so then all of a sudden you've now not had time to think about everything you want to do at the aid station. That's a huge disruption. Lucy's not gonna have that. You know, Courtney's not going to have that. Blandine and Ruth also not going to have that.
SPEAKER_02Gotta throw some light on Soon Maya. So Soon Maya raced Lucy at Lavarate earlier this year. She was the one that took down that course record. She had got a second place at the Long Trail World Championships last September to Katie. Second at CCC back in 2022. Kind of cool that she is the first Nepalese woman to be contending for a podium here or win. It is her 100-mile debut, though. And I think like it's kind of like what Hans was saying about Francesco, like all the talent in the world. And the only question Mark Hans had for him heading into Western this year was like he hadn't yet experienced the pain like that late in a hundred miler. And I think that's only uh that's only amplified at U Timby versus Western. So like with Soon Maya here, I mean she's run I think her distance PR is like 78 or 80 miles at La Vareto. But how much of how much of a factor is that? I don't know, but I think her resume is sufficient to put her in the the f uh favorites category here.
SPEAKER_00Soon Maya hasn't been worse than fourth place in a race since the middle of 2024. Wow. And she's raced a lot. And it was it was an OCC DNF in August 2024. But then since then, races between three hours and 13 and a half hours have for the most part all been wins.
SPEAKER_02So at the very least, we'll see her contending all day. She'll be with us at the live stream.
SPEAKER_00There's not enough evidence here for me to say otherwise. Like I feel like, especially if you have the range to be able to compete from a three to a 13-hour race, I know it's another big jump to go up to a 20-plus hour race, but it's a huge jump to go from three to 13 in terms of like physically what you need. And if she's able to make those changes already, I I would feel good that the preparation's going to be there for this race. And then it's just a matter of like figuring out how to put yourself in a position for success at times when you're now deep into the unknown. That's the hardest part.
SPEAKER_02In in the same way I described this as Ben's race to lose, even though it's wide open. Do you see this as like I mean, is the women's race wide open, or is it like is it very clearly like Ruth's race to lose?
SPEAKER_00It still feels like Ruth's race to lose because this has been Ruth's focus, it seems like, for longer than anyone else. Yeah, because I'm like like like you know, Rachel and Courtney have already done big races, had really big performances. Blandine Blandine might be the other person who's putting a big focus on UTMB, although I know she I know I know she really wanted to do hard rock this year.
SPEAKER_01Yep. Um but I'm just pulling up her recent results. But again, a lot of wins.
SPEAKER_00She's one of the very best. Yeah. So then so it's like you know, it's hard to bet against Blandine when she starts a race. But normally, like this is so fun. We normally there are one, maybe two people, or oftentimes zero people, where we look at the race entrance and it's the type of person that when they're on the star line, they're probably going to win. Yep. There's like at least four women on this UTMB star list. So who's going to lose? Because a lot of them, there's a lot of these top women who are terrible at losing. Normally, most normally runners are very good at are good at losing because you don't win that often. But now all of a sudden we have multiple runners who the majority of the races they do are wins. So it's like, who's actually going to be the one to win? And who's who's going to get a rare L?
SPEAKER_02I'm going to give you my dark horses here.
SPEAKER_01I've got I've got five of them actually.
SPEAKER_02I've got Rachel Entrikken, Kareth Arnold. There's no way Rachel's a dark horse. I think she's a dark horse. I don't think she's she's a favorite. I think she's a dark horse because UTMB is the most international event, and I think Rachel is still very much a North American entity.
SPEAKER_00I think Rachel's too good at running where she can bleed international time and still be a contender to win.
SPEAKER_02And I only define dark horse in terms of just awareness. Yeah, in terms of ability. Like I do think Rachel can win this race.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, but there is like the lack of UTMB experience is huge. You're definitely right about that. But I think Rachel might be good enough where she might be able to use this unknown to her advantage of like you don't know what you don't know.
SPEAKER_02She told me in our preview interview that if she had gotten here a week before the race, she likely would have DNF'd at Champagne Locke. And that because she got out here three weeks early, she was able to recon the course. She did four loops. Yeah. And she, in her mind, the biggest variable for confidence to compete at the front was just familiarity. If I can just get familiar with the course, I'm good. I think I have the skill sets across the board.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. I think her uh going to Keonti and racing there was was big. I think that was really helpful. And on sighting it. Yeah, and just like getting a rep of international racing experience. Yep. Is is helpful because you know, UTMB, it's elevated from Keonti. Yeah, the maybe the race effort isn't necessarily anymore because racing is racing. You're going as hard as you can either way. But there's so much more hoopla surrounding this race. You know, us contributing to that.
SPEAKER_02I just realized we this is this is the rubber match between Courtney and Rachel for 2026.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, they're one and one. They're one and one. Yeah. So win winner take all.
SPEAKER_02Winner take all right here.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. I'm I'm excited for that.
SPEAKER_02Okay, but so Rachel's firmly in your favorites category.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Okay. But uh I was actually I don't know if you said the next name.
SPEAKER_02Kara.
SPEAKER_00Okay, yeah, that's a great, great call out.
SPEAKER_02I mean, TDS champ last year, second at Hard Rock this year behind Courtney. So she's attempting that. I'm calling this the 48-day double.
SPEAKER_00She's already raced in between Hard Rock and now. Like I said, like I'm not really worried about her and being excited to race. It's just a matter of like, is there any fatigue? And the other thing I always question is like, for doing all this racing, like, where do we train? Is there is there fitness behind those all the racing in between? I mean, clearly we see like that much fitness, but you need more than than what she's had so far. Like, she would have to have a better race than hard rock or TDS last year to podium UTMB this year. Like it needs to be better. And has she given herself the room and her racing calendar to train to get better?
SPEAKER_02Yep. I mean, I also, the other two on my list, uh, did I mention Caitlin Gerbin? No. Okay, so Caitlin, Caitlin Gerbin, Henriette Albin, and Martina Velmas over the other three people on my dark horse list. Martina's a TDS champ, one Andorra 105k, and Monerosa 82K later this year. She's really had solid like leadups to this. Henriette won TGC, she's two in a row there. Um, and then Caitlin, third in 2022. Then became a mom, had a major hip surgery. Since then, one Cascade Crest, fifth at Tor de Jean's, second at Mount Fuji earlier this year. So this could be like I see if we see UTMB as like the final piece of it, I could see this as like the comeback story of the women's race.
unknownYeah.
SPEAKER_02You can come back and be relevant in the top five, top ten, four years on from that podium.
SPEAKER_01I guess while we're on the topic of like comebacks, Leah Yingling.
SPEAKER_00I mean, she does have a top 10 UTMB finish already. And and I remember like talking to her after the like pretty immediately after the race, she was like, one, I'm never doing that again, but two, I could go so much faster. I'm like, okay, well, those are kind of conflicting thoughts. But she's like, I left so much time out on the course.
SPEAKER_02We've never seen this level of like professionalized training from Leah in her career. Like she's done a lot of this stuff on, like, she's been one of the best runners in the sport at a level of training that I think she would say still left stuff on the table.
SPEAKER_00Right. Yeah. Like definitely always on the more conservative side of like I'm gonna make sure I stay healthy and fresh to get the start line. And there's always been that wonder of like, what if I did turn the dial a little bit more? And like the dial has been turned more for this block. I mean, you can go look at it on Strabo, and it's looked fantastic. And there's been some solid races as well as like follow-up big weeks of training in this block to be like, I mean, it has me convinced that Leah's definitely ready to have a better race than her previous UTMB run.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I I think we have the benefit of like being a little bit on the inside, same thing with Caleb, but um I just think this audience should not be surprised by any result from Leah.
SPEAKER_00And then I was gonna I was kind of tandeming the Salt Lake duo there of Rachel Drake. Rachel Drake.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and I mean we talked about this in our power ink episode, but I think that on a much smaller scale because our race is small time, she ran the Twisted Fork 68K in the worst possible weather conditions.
SPEAKER_00I couldn't imagine being out there for 68K. So I was like, I understand the spine race now.
SPEAKER_02If that wasn't the most amazing learning opportunity for mandatory kid at UTMB, I don't know what is. Yeah. So I the one thing, I mean, there Rachel is ultimate competitor, world-class talent, and just logistically, I think she is as prepared as anyone to uh yeah, work herself well inside that top 10.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, the the the biggest variable is from a time standpoint, this is a massive increase in race. It is. That's like really the it's kind of like the only thing. Like I'm not worried about Rachel and many other parts of like you know, will she be competitive? Like, is there fitness there? Like, check, check, check. It's just a matter of like, can you increase your longest race you've done by eight hours or something?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and then like fueling it, especially if it's bad weather, stuff like that. Yeah, but mega talent, mega talent, uh anything's possible there. One of the best in the sport. But again, this just shows how deep UTMB is.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean, I keep glancing over the list and it's like, what about so-and-so? What about so-and-so? And there's like, yeah, there's 40 names that we can like like we can deep dive.
SPEAKER_02All right, my two question marks. And I think it's crazy that they're question marks because they're also two of the best in the sport. But the first one is Abby Hall, 2025 Western States champ, but dropped at UTMB last year and dropped at Western States this year. So there's a little bit of a boomer bust going on. But then again, she's also one of the most decorated CCC athletes this decade. Two podiums there in 22, or was it either 21 and 22? Yeah, 21 and 22 podiums there, second place and third place. So when she's on, one of the best in the sport, great attitude, loves the training, loves the sport, loves this area. Um, I think just a question mark in the sense of like which Abby is showing up. But I also think like working in her favor is the fact that maybe there's just less of a spotlight this time around. You know, like last year she came on the heels of Western states, and it's like, oh, like she was in the same position that like you know, Von Sant was in this year, or like there's just a lot of pressure, and it's kind of magical if you can make the second half of a Western States UTB double work in any capacity.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah. And it's yeah, it's just difficult to do it. And it might be hard to separate whether you're doing it for you or for everyone else after you win something like Western States. Like, oh, now I have the opportunity to become a Western States UTMB champion because I did the hardest part of this double, and that's winning the first one. That's probably up for debate of whatever's the harder part. But you know, you can't be a Western States UTMB champion without a Western States win. And then it's like, did you do it just because you felt pressure that you had to do it now? Simply because you won Western States, or did you actually also still really want to win you know run UTMB? Um my same same question mark for Riley Brady.
SPEAKER_02Second so Riley, they are uh my other question mark. And they have the second highest index in the field, and I have them as a question mark.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. That's kind of nutty, but I also still get it. And for the reasons we just discussed, coming off of an incredible Western States performance, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Riley is a question mark for me only because I feel like they have done more than enough to prove themselves as one of the absolute best on the North American scene. Second at Western this year, the Canyons victory, what they've done at Black Canyon, Havelina, etc. Their only shaminy start is a D uh DNF at CCC in 24. How will they handle the double? Is it already a full season of racing? It's just the European question mark. That's it.
SPEAKER_00And is UTMB a course that can suit Riley's skill set? Can Riley prove that their skill set is more than runnable courses? Yeah, I think Run Rabbit last year was a good glimpse into that, but this race is harder than Run Rabbit. Um so that those are, yeah, the question marks is just like can you deliver another big hundred-mile performance in the same year with the added pressure of now people being like, whoa, you just ran really fast at Western states. I now expect you to run this at UTMB. Um, how can you, you know, deflect that pressure and just do your thing?
SPEAKER_02Before we get to predictions, I'm gonna run us through just a couple listener predictions talking points that I think are fun. And I want to hear whether you agree or disagree. First person says three women in the top 10 this year overall.
SPEAKER_00I think this is one of the years where that's perhaps there might be the greatest chance of that happening this year because of the star power on the women's side. And I don't think it has anything to do with any lack of star power on the meds. I think the women in this year's UTMB field are simply so good that and and of course, like you need to have you need to catch like three different lightning strikes in the same bottle. Because it's the only way that happens is if you have all three of them having the best race of their lives all the way to the finish line, and it all ends up being the you know, the best race of their life is competing, is still competing with one another. Like there's so many things that have to go right for that to happen, but this is the year with the greatest chance of that happening. Next up, uh Rachel Drake podiums. That can happen, but I think that then comes down to a big gamble for Rachel on going out recklessly hard or not. Like I think if Rachel's treating UTMB as like a multi-year project, that podium doesn't happen this year. Because I just don't see a scenario where you can go out and like 20th and run up to third with how many people are in this round. I just don't think that many people are gonna blow up. So then you you kind of have to like sit yourself in the top 10 by the first, you know, 10, 20k in. And then you're kind of you're gambling the entire race. So that so and I don't know if Rachel's treating this UTMB as like a multi-year thing or not.
SPEAKER_02Next up, neither winner of UTMB comes from France or the USA.
SPEAKER_01Hmm.
SPEAKER_00That well I guess I mean just looking at it really quick, I mean like Ruth Croft, Hannes Nober. Yeah. That's not unrealistic. It's not unrealistic.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, especially when you Soon Maya and Josh Wade. Josh Wade. Not unrealistic. Not unrealistic.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Last one here. Either leader of UTMB through Valercine doesn't win.
SPEAKER_00What's the exact mileage of Valarcine?
SPEAKER_02Valercine is it's sort of like the last big, it's one of the last big checkpoints before like that climb up to La Flagre.
SPEAKER_01That's right. Very late in the race. Very late.
SPEAKER_02You're like 11 miles from the finish.
SPEAKER_00No, winners, I think winners decided at that point. Well, I don't know if it's decided, but I think the winner of the race comes through there first. No overtakes after mile 85.
SPEAKER_02I forgot this one. A fully supported FKT effort would produce a faster time on this course than a race course record.
SPEAKER_00No. And I'll I'll tell you why. While you might be able to dial in the pacing and like, are we we're so we're assuming then like you could be muled the entire time? Like you don't have to carry anything because you'll have people with you giving you bottles and gels and all that stuff. Like you could optimize everything perfectly. The one thing that you'll never get is just somebody else breathing down your neck, waiting to steal the win from you. And like I just like, and I think the motivation to win on this day is always going to be higher and create a better result than someone just simply wanting to loop the mountain faster than anyone's ever done it.
SPEAKER_02Okay, before I roll through our predictions, just some key stats I'm gonna speed through first. The two course records right now Walmsley 1937 back in 2023, Katie Scheid 2209 back in 2024. The woman's leader at Cormayer has won 15 of the last 19 editions. Although Courtney led here last year and ultimately faded to 10th, the men's leader at Cormayer has lost eight of the last 11 editions, including Theodettien last year.
SPEAKER_00So don't be in the lead at Cormire.
SPEAKER_02Don't be in the lead at Cormire. No woman, so this is for Ruth Croft, no woman has gone back to back at this race since Rory Bozio in 2013 and 14. So with that, Brett, who are your two winners of this race? Oh man. And they're winning times. Winners and winning times.
SPEAKER_00Are these course is this course the same as last year's?
SPEAKER_02Well, last year didn't have the pyramids, but that was like a last-minute cold weather course activation. So it should go back to like the course that uh like Jim and Katie were on for the most part.
SPEAKER_01Okay. Man, I feel so boring saying like I think well, no. You know what? So I think I think Ruth is gonna repeat the win.
SPEAKER_00And I think it's gonna be I think it's gonna be closer to 22 hours flat. So you're almost a course record. Almost an hour faster. So course record. Yeah, it has to be. Um and and I say that like assuming pretty slowly because last year's weather wasn't great. Um, I'm always curious how much that slows things down. Like, does slightly colder weather slow you down more than slightly warmer weather? I almost lean the slightly warmer weather slows you down more because cold weather gear has gotten so lightweight, but you get to put it on. You don't get there's not much for warm weather gear out here. Like they're not adding extra aid stations of water or ice. Like you just have to go and be hot. So Ruth, Ruth and 22 low for you. I think Ruth 22 low, and and that's going to come because of the competition, you know. Um, and Caleb Wilson's gonna win.
SPEAKER_01You thought I was gonna say Ben. No, I'm just laughing because I have the exact same picks.
SPEAKER_02Oh, damn it. I've got Caleb in 1957 and Ruth in 2217.
SPEAKER_00Well, I had a Finn time prediction too. Dude, wow.
SPEAKER_02And then I'll just I I also wrote down my top American, so I see four American men in the top 10. I've got Caleb, Ben Diemon, Drew Holman, and Rod Farvard, and I've got six American women in the top 10. I've got Courtney, Leah, Rachel Encherkin, Rachel Drake. Sorry, I've got five. We didn't mention her earlier, but Jasmine Lothar. Sorry, Jasmine's Canadian.
SPEAKER_01She's Canadian. I was like North American.
SPEAKER_02North American. I've got I think it's a good day for North America. I think it's a good day for our continent. Okay. Just group. You know what? We should talk about that territory anyways when we could have. Oh man.
SPEAKER_00Um did you say who that who's the top American woman?
SPEAKER_02Well, the top American woman, I think, is I think it's gonna be Courtney.
SPEAKER_00That's what I also have written down. Yeah. I think it's gonna be a close battle between Courtney and Rachel, but I'm gonna give Courtney the nudge purely off of UTMB experience and like really knowing the ebbs and flows of this course during a race effort.
SPEAKER_02Okay, here's a fun hypothetical. When we do our UTMB recap, let's assume that Rachel Endriken wins this race. What do you think we will have wished that we accounted for? What was the difference maker?
SPEAKER_00The size of her balls. Okay. Like I think that's what's a gutsy runner. Yeah, it'll just be like some move. Like, I don't know if it's a descent or a climb, but Rachel just have like, and then I sent it on that point and and in a gap formed. And it'll be like purely instinct. There will have been no plan of like this is the spot in the race when I'm going to win it.
SPEAKER_01Yep.
SPEAKER_00If Rachel wins the race, I'll just be like, and that's just how it happened. Because that's kind of how Coca-Dona got won. Yeah. She was like, I because she said she could not, she had a spreadsheet. She wanted to write splits for sub 60 hours, but she could not figure out where the time was to get under 60. But then it happened anyways. And she was like, I guess that's why we go race because I couldn't mathematically figure out how to get under 60 hours.
SPEAKER_02I know there's a big team behind Ruth, but I think if you isolate Ruth, Ruth is actually a very like intuitive runner. And I think the thing that unites Rachel Entricken, Courtney, and Ruth is that they all really value intuition. Yeah, they're all pretty good at just like being out there on the day and just going for it.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. I think that's going to make for really exciting racing because you might see multiple passes and moves and letting people go by a minute on a climb and then regain that minute on a descent. And I bet their aid station transitions will all be wildly different. I mean, we know what Courtney's will look like because Courtney has her aid station process, but like what what's Rachel gonna do? What's Ruth gonna do? What do they have practiced? You know, one of my I mean, one of my favorite live stream any things to watch is Cormayer. Yeah. Cormire Aid Station, like that cruise spot, always is fascinates me. Because some people can just look like absolute hell and get totally revived there. Or vice versa, someone looks great coming in, and then like one mile down the road, they're just like, nope, never mind. It's actually over.
SPEAKER_02Two Americans in the top 10 in each field last year, Rod and Ben on the men's side, Lauren Pieritz and Courtney on the women's side. Before we get your final thoughts here, Brett, to close out how you can watch this race, UTMB live stream plus iron far coverage all starts at 5 45 local chamony time here on Friday, August 28th. Prize money, 20,000 euro to each winner, $119,000 total purse per gender. Pretty cool. Um, yeah, Brett, this has been an awesome preview. I cannot wait to watch. Any final thoughts you want to leave listeners and viewers with before we go? Dude, I'm just stoked to be here. That's really all it is. Me too. I'm stoked. And uh, we can't thank you enough. I finished my glass of wine. So how would we describe this wine?
SPEAKER_00Let's talk about CCC and pour another glass, and we'll do a little tasting.
