FUND MANAGERS: Your Competitors Will Overtake You If You Miss These Macro Signals

"RAISE CAPITAL LIKE A LEGEND: https://go.fundraisecapital.co/frc2-apply"

DOWNLOAD "The Dollar Empire Private Markets Playbook"
https://go.fundraisecapital.co/dollar-empire-playbook

The financial world is fixated on the wrong metrics. 

While the media screams about US debt and the trade deficit, these perceived weaknesses are actually the hidden engines driving trillions of dollars directly into private equity, private credit, and venture capital. This is not theory—it's accounting.

In this deep-dive masterclass on global macro strategy and private market investing, Ryan Miller rips the curtain back on the Balance of Payments (BOP)—the true master ledger of global power. 

If you are a fund manager or deal syndicator, you need to know exactly how the Current Account deficit forces foreign capital to buy your deals. The world isn't collapsing; it's buying American assets, and your fund is the mechanism.

Subscribe on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTOe79EXLDsROQ0z3YLnu1QQ

Connect with Ryan Miller:
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcmiller1/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/makingbillionspodcast/
X: https://x.com/_MakingBillions
Website: https://making-billions.com/

[THE HOST]: Ryan Miller is a recovering CFO turned angel investor in technology and

Transcript

Ryan Miller  

On the surface, a trade deficit looks like weakness, we buy more than we sell, we import more than we export. But in a $1 based global system, the US trade deficit is also a capital superpower, and here's why. 

Ryan Miller  

My name is Ryan Miller, and for the past 15 years, I've helped hundreds of people to raise millions of dollars for their funds and for their startups. If you're serious about raising money, launching your business or taking your life to the next level, this show will give you the answers so that you too can enjoy your pursuit of Making Billions. Let's get into it. 

Ryan Miller  

America doesn't stay powerful because it's rich, America stays rich because it is powerful. And when you stay to the end of this episode, you're going to walk away knowing exactly how that happens, how to track the real levers of global power, how to spot the early warning signs of a shift, and how to position your fund or your deal for your profit no matter what direction the world moves. And by the end of this discussion, you're going to know why America's trade deficits are actually a capital superpower. How immigration and foreign direct investment strengthen the US balance sheet, and why Trump's tariffs and repatriation strategy mattered more than people realize. The exact dashboards and macro trip wires institutional investors use and moves you must make as a private market fund manager or deal syndicator to come out ahead of the next global shift, so that you too can enjoy your pursuit of Making Billions. Here we go.

Ryan Miller  

So let's start with the big picture, most people try to understand the global economy by looking at headlines, stock indexes or GDP, but if you want to understand real empires, you watch the balance of payments. See the balance of payments, or the BOP is the master ledger of how money moves between a country and the rest of the world, and it has three main components. Understanding these components will help you understand how to navigate your next deal or fund or syndication, so that you come out on top. They are the current account, the capital account and the financial account. So let's break them down in plain English, and then I'll tie directly to your world as a fund manager. 

Ryan Miller  

So first, the current account. You want to think of the current account as the income statement for a country, it's that simple. It tracks, for example, trade in goods and services, income from investments like dividends and interests and transfers like remittances. So when the US imports more goods than it exports, that shows up as a current account deficit, sometimes we call that a trade deficit. All that means is we buy more stuff from the world than the world buys from us. But here's the key those dollars, they don't disappear, they have to go somewhere. 

Ryan Miller  

And that brings me to my next point, which is the capital account. This one is smaller and more technical, it covers one time transfers of wealth, like things like certain types of debt forgiveness or migration related asset transfers. And so when a high skilled immigrant sells a home abroad and then moves that wealth to the US, for example, or whatever country it is, that shift is captured in the capital account. So you can see immigration, we'll get into that in a minute. Immigration, when there's asset transfers, I come it's actually really good for a country. And so getting that right, so being pro all immigration, no matter what, or total stop immigration, no matter what, I don't think that those two are the best strategy, it's not a political post. But if we're just looking at numbers, we want to see a good healthy amount of migration, or immigration or immigration coming into the country, that brings assets into the country. 

Ryan Miller  

And that brings me to my third which is the financial account. This is the one most relevant to you and I. The Financial Account tracks cross border flows of capital, things like foreign direct investment, like a factory being built, portfolio flows like foreigners buying US stocks, bonds or other deals and other cross border loans, deposits, things like assets, all of that. So when a foreign LP invests in your private equity fund, a Middle Eastern family office wires money into your private credit strategy, or a multinational builds a plant in Texas or Ohio, see that shows up as a financial account inflow. 

Ryan Miller  

Now here's the golden identity you need to tattoo on your brain. Current account plus capital account plus financial account must always balance, or, in other words, equal zero. And that's not theory. That's accounting. And if America runs, or any country runs a big trade deficit in the current account, those dollars must come back through the capital or financial account. Hopefully I haven't lost you yet. So this is essentially saying it'll always balance. So where one takes away the other one gets added, and it always balances its self out. So this is the accounting of that, and understanding the contributions to each of those will allow you to get in front of any strategy or global macro trend so that you make money and come out on top. So let me give you an example, if America buys products, the world buys America. If Canada buys products, the world buys Canada. So on, Italy, Greece, Brazil, whatever, whoever, New Zealand, it could be anybody. And as a fund manager, you are one of those things that the world buys. 

Ryan Miller  

So now let's talk about trade deficits, because this is where people. It’s emotional, and this is where some people are getting it wrong. So you'll hear, for example, in America Media, for example, this is anywhere America is losing because we import too much, or we don't make anything anymore, or we're dependent on China, it's over. Okay, let's just take a pause. On the surface, a trade deficit looks like weakness. We buy more than we sell, we import more than we export. But in a $1 based global system, the US trade deficit is also a capital superpower, and here's why, when the US runs a trade deficit, it's sending dollars out into the world. Those dollars land into the hands of exporters, foreign banks and foreign central banks. Those people have three options, spend those dollars on US goods and services, park them in cash, or invest them in US, assets like Treasury stocks, real estate, private equity, private credit, venture capital and any of your deals, but because the US has one, the deepest capital markets two, the strongest legal system, three, the most liquid markets and for quite frankly, the most trusted private market ecosystem on planet Earth. Those dollars are overwhelmingly recycled back into US assets. 

Ryan Miller  

So what does this mean? Well, it means that the US can import goods, export paper and private market opportunities, like many of us do, and still attract global capital. Remember, this is all with a trade deficit. So when you see trade deficit in the headlines, I want you to translate that as the US is exporting on its asset base and the world is buying. So for fund managers or deal syndicators that are going overseas or just looking at the data to understand where the deals are going. This is the game. We don't live in a world of containers on ships. We live in a world of capital flows into funds, deals and other structures. Now a natural question is, if the US is running huge deficits and stacking up debt, why haven't we blown up like Greece did a few years ago? Well, let's walk through that. See, most countries, they blow up or implode when these things happen, they borrow in someone else's currency. They don't control the global reserve asset, and don't sit at the center of the world's financial scaffolding. 

Ryan Miller  

See, the US is different on all three. Number one, the US borrows in its own currency, the US dollar. So that means the US can refinance in its own unit, and if we're in that country, then we can roll the debt, and if things get extreme, we can just inflate our way out of it. And that's what they do. See the risk isn't we run out of dollars. The real risk is inflation and currency debasement, very real, but very different from outright default. The second one is the US dollar is still the global reserve currency, roughly 58% of global FX reserves are still held in US dollars. See, central banks hold treasuries and dollar assets because they trust the US system more than alternative currencies. And then number three, the US controls most of the financial scaffolding. Swift messaging, dollar clearing, sanctions enforcement, rule of law, depth of markets, and importantly, private markets, private equity, private credit, venture, real estate funds or whatever. So while other countries hit a wall at a certain debt to GDP level, like we saw with Greece and other countries at default, the US can go much further than that. See the US is debt is in its own currency. That currency is the reserve asset, and that capital and those capital markets, including yours, are still where the world wants to be. Now. Does that mean the US is invincible? Absolutely not. There are cracks forming right now, and if you're running a fund, you cannot afford to be blind to these. So let's talk about the cracks, and then I'll show you exactly what to monitor so that you can profit. 

Ryan Miller  

Here are some early signs of stress in the macroeconomic system that will affect a lot of your deals or your funds or even raising capital. Number One alternative payment rails, China's CIPS system or its chips, BRICS is talking about a new settlement in currencies such as oil contracts settled in non US dollar terms. Number two, reserve diversification. See central banks gradually are shifting a little bit out of dollars into other currencies, and increasingly more so in gold. So this is another crack that we have to watch. And number three, geopolitical weaponization of the dollar. See sanctions and asset freezes send a very simple message to the rest of the world. If you anger the issuer of the reserve currency, your assets can be frozen. So this is one of those big sticks where the US likes to speak softly and carry a big stick. So now I want to be clear, we are not talking about the Dollar Dies tomorrow. We're not talking about that, but we are talking about slow diversification, soft erosion at the edges, and more countries wanting to hedge their exposure to the US dollar and US trade. So for you as a fund manager, that doesn't mean panic, but it may mean opportunity. Because here's that paradox, as more countries try to hedge against the dollar, wealthy families and institutions will often increase. Increase their capital allocations to us, private markets, all right, so private deals, private funds, this is the beauty of it. But why do they do that? Well, I believe it's because they want dollar exposure, not necessarily only through treasuries and public equities. They want real assets under us, law, operating businesses, private credit instruments and access through us, fund structures, and that's where you live. 

Ryan Miller  

Now, let's talk about tariffs, because this is where emotions really spike, you've probably heard tariffs are bad. They raise prices, they hurt consumers. It's protectionism. I've heard it all, but that's only one side of the story. But underneath the politics, there was a strategic element to Trump's tariff approach that most people missed. And this isn't a pro Trump rant or anything. I don't care who it is. I just want to see whoever's in office kick butt in any country and do very well. And so we're just doing a case study on that, on the strategy more than the man, but let's jump in. So here's the core idea, when you impose tariffs on imported goods, you're doing more than just raising prices. You're reshaping incentives. So with tariffs, they make certain foreign goods more expensive, which pushes consumer preference out to the margin, toward alternatives or substitutes, and those alternatives increasingly become domestically produced goods, or goods from preferred partners. So you see something where we're saying, hey, these tariffs, there's these different countries. And I know the current administration feels a little ripped off. If that's true, they're saying, Hey, you want to trade with us, your stuff is not going to get bought as much because it's going to be way too expensive. So people are going to go to cheaper us made, or Canadian made, or whatever it is. So they're going to do it from domestic or preferred partners who don't quite have that burden of tariffs. So tariffs don't just change the price, they rebalance the demand curve, and that's the end game. So over time, what happens is it creates more room for domestic producers to compete, and it encourages companies to reshore or near shore production, and that makes the economics of Made in the USA or made in China or made in Canada a lot more attractive to local residents. See as more production moves back into the country, you get investment in plants, equipment and jobs. You get more foreign direct investment into US manufacturing. You get a tighter integration of capital and labor starts to come back onshore. 

Ryan Miller  

And guess who sits at the center of all of it? Private equity funds rolling up industrial companies, private credit funds financing equipment and CAPEX. Real Estate syndicators buying industrial parks and venture capital funds backing automation and robotics to support the reshoring wave. So you can see there's a huge shift in the supply chain, in the demand curve when these tariffs start to roll out, and if that's warranted, and that is a strategy that will put your country back in, on top, and you can ride the wave rather than take a risk. Now, your fund is participating to actually work with the changing tides of the macro, global trade. And the thing is, tariffs aren't just a trade tool. They're a capital allocation tool. They help to reshuffle consumer preference corporate strategy and ultimately, where capital gets deployed. And as fund managers, family offices, whoever we are, we need to understand where does capital want to be, and we have to make sure that our fund is in that place. And so understanding how the tides are changing are absolutely a critical tool when building your investment firm and Investment Fund. 

Ryan Miller  

Hey, thanks for listening to Making Billions. If you liked this episode, could you do me a huge favor and go leave a review? This helps us to get the podcast to more ears, to help people raise capital, learn fund management strategies and serve our mission to help fund managers and deal syndicators to gain greater hope and focus as they build their empire. All right, let's get back to the show. 

Ryan Miller  

Now, let's add another layer, immigration, earlier we talked about it. See, immigration debates usually focus on culture, politics or border security, but there's a capital flow dimension here that most people aren't even talking about. When someone legally immigrates to the United States, especially a skilled worker, an entrepreneur or a high net worth individual, they rarely come empty handed. They're often bringing savings, business proceeds, investment portfolios, human capital and future earnings potential. So when they move those assets into a country, say the United States, that's a capital and financial account inflow. So we talked about those earlier. So what that means is more deposits in us, banks, more capital in us, brokerage accounts, more demand for us. Real Estate, more potential LP capital, more founders building companies on US soil. So immigration doesn't just add people, it expands the country's balance sheet. So for you as a fund manager, immigrants are often limited partners, founders, key operators or acquisition targets. So if you're not tracking immigration policy and migration inflows, you're missing part of the macro picture that will drive  your deal flow. 

Ryan Miller  

Now, let's talk about something Trump did in his first term that didn't get nearly enough attention in our world. It was the repatriation of offshore profits. See, for years, US multinationals held hundreds of billions, eventually over a trillion dollars overseas in low tax jurisdictions like Ireland. Those were US earned profits held offshore, largely in dollar assets, to defer US taxes. See, under Trump's tax reform, there was a one time window bring that money back, pay a lower rate, and let's reset the system so then in 2018 alone, estimates put repatriated earnings in the ballpark of about 700 plus billion dollars that came back into the country. But here's why that matters, macroeconomically speaking, that was a massive injection of capital into the US economy without the FED printing new money. And if you know, you know when the FED prints money, inflation happens. So if we can bring in more currency into the supply without printing more, then we avoid a lot of the inflation, not entirely, but quite a bit. So instead of expanding the FED's balance sheet, doing more quantitative easing and creating brand new dollars from nothing, this was already existing, dollars, already part of the global dollar liquidity, moving from offshore accounts back onshore, now circulating one more time, creating stimulation to the economy while minimizing a lot of asset inflation, not entirely, but it is a wonderful way to get non inflationary growth, hard to do, but these can be one of those policies that happens in a lot of countries. So did countries use a lot for those buybacks, yeah, they did. Did some of it go into capex and M&A, yeah? Also, yeah. Did it provide fuel for private equity deals and corporate constellations, 100%. From an inflation perspective, that's very different from I just printed a trillion new dollars and pumped it into the system. 

Ryan Miller  

So what's the lesson here for you as a fund manager, when we see repatriation, just know it is a tool. You can do your own macro version of that. So anytime you have us LPS with capital parked overseas, income in foreign entities or underutilized structures, you are now in a position where you can set your fund up as the vehicle to repatriate the capital back into productive US private markets, without relying on new money creation. And that is a very powerful story to tell. 

Ryan Miller  

Now, the big fear is, say, Ryan, what if the dollar actually loses its dominance? What if this whole thing actually shifts? All right, let's be adults here in the room. Here's what's realistic and what isn't, it is unlikely that the dollar simply disappears as the reserve currency overnight. You don't unwind decades of financial architecture in a year or two. What's more likely is a gradual diversification, regional settlement alternatives, and more use of the renminbi or local currencies in bilateral trade, and more gold or other assets on central bank balance sheets. So instead of thinking the end of the dollar, think dilution of the dollar's monopoly. So what does that mean for you? Well, number $1, drift increases the demand for real assets and private markets inside the US legal system. So if you're running private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure or hard asset backed strategies, you become part of the solution for families and institutions trying to hedge currency risk. Number two, multi polar growth opens up opportunities abroad. You'll see more capital formation in India, ASEAN, the Middle East and other regions, more sovereign funds wanting to diversify, both in and out of the US. So if you're a US based fund manager, you can continue raising in dollars, but selectively deploy or partner with those other markets or raise foreign capital into your US deals. So this could be a great time for foreign direct investment. And number three, you need a macro radar dashboard so we're not trying to guess our way through the dark here, our LPS pay us to look around corners, and this is going to do it for you. 

Ryan Miller  

Now you can't reasonably rely on good vibes and Twitter takes you need a process. So let me give you a simple but powerful macro dashboard you can run as a fund manager or deal syndicator. Here's how you monitor the health of the dollar empire and the opportunity set for your fund. I'm going to give you the categories first, then where to go, then what levels to watch for. So category one, global payment rails. Number two, global FX reserves and gold. Number three, us, fiscal health and debt structure. Number four, foreign direct investment. Number five, China's RMB strategy and Belt and Road. Category six is geopolitical risk. Number seven is US industrial policy and reshoring. So that's quite a handful. 

Ryan Miller  

Now let me give you a few concrete examples of how this works and by the way, I've pulled all. Of this together for you in a one page cheat sheet, and I'll talk about that at the end. So let me give you an example global payment rates. So you want to go to the Swift RMB tracker, you want to look up the percentage of global payments being settled in RMB, and the benchmark to watch is when the RMB crosses roughly 5% of global payments and CIPS, or chips, as I like to call it, China's payment system is growing above 20% year over year for several quarters. So you're seeing real pressure building for alternative settlement. So how do you use that? Well, you know, demand for dollar assets is still strong, but there's real desire for diversity that often increases demand for US private assets from foreign LPs. Let me give you another example, the IMF coffer, or global FX reserves. So you want to go to the IMF cofer, C, O, F, E, R database, so you want to look up the share of global FX reserves held in dollars and the other currencies bucket. And the benchmark to look out for is, if the dollar share drops below roughly 55% and we're close to that, and other currencies rise above 10% you're seeing a real structural diversification, plus central banks are buying more than 1000 tons of gold every year. That tells you they're hedging,  again, dollar drift equals more demand for private real assets. The third example I want to give you is US fiscal health. So you want to go to the US Treasury's monthly Treasury statement. You want to look up interest expense versus revenue. And the benchmark you want to look up for is when net interest expense is consistently over 20% of federal revenue, you're in the fiscal danger zone. You pair that with CBO projections, Treasury debt maturity data and foreign holdings from the TIC report. So if interest costs are rising, debt maturity is shortening, and foreign holdings of treasuries fall roughly below 25% then inflation risk and refinancing risk are up, and private credit yields become very attractive. Real Assets and operating businesses with pricing power become very valuable. So if that's part of your strategy, you want to look for those number four. The fourth example is foreign direct investment or FDI. See, you want to go to the be a or the Bureau of Economic Analysis, you want to look up net inbound FDI, and specifically FDI into manufacturing. And some of the benchmarks you want to look for is if net FDI inflows turn negative for two consecutive quarters or manufacturing, FDI drops by more than 30% year over year. That tells you the world is less excited about investing in US capacity. So what does that mean? Well, for private equity, it can mean lower valuations and better entry points. So it's a good time to go buy. For private credit funds, it can mean stronger demand for non bank financing. So if you run in a private credit fund, that could be a very positive sign, and that's your time to grow market share. 

Ryan Miller  

Those are just a few examples. You don't have to be a macro economist, you just need a repeatable dashboard, where to go, what to look at, and what levels matter. So if you're a private equity manager, private credit manager, VC, real estate syndicator, or any kind of alternative asset operator, what do you do with all of this? Well, let me give you a simple playbook. Number one position yourself as the dollar empire access vehicle for foreign LPs. You are their way to get private exposure into the US system. So your message becomes, if you believe the market in the US will be at the core of the financial system, or if you believe that private markets, real assets, will outperform public markets over the long run, which I do, then the fund is how you express that view. Number two, you want to ride the reshoring and industrial policy super cycle. See if tariffs and policies are reshuffling consumer preference toward made in the USA, or pulling supply chains back onshore and concentrating capital into certain corridors, then you want to be buying financing or building companies that sit right on top of those corridors. So for private equity, roll up industrial services, logistics and manufacturing support businesses. Or what about private credit, finance, the equipment capex and working capital for those expansions? Or perhaps you're in real estate in there you want to acquire or develop industrial facilities, logistics hubs and specialized manufacturing spaces. What if you're in venture? Well, this is a good opportunity to back automation, robotics and software that enables reshoring to be cost competitive. And then there's number three, harness, immigration as a capital and deal engine. See, immigrants are over represented in founding billion dollar companies. They bring assets with them and expand the talent and deal universe within the US. So what does that mean? Well, that means they are your LPs, your founders, your operators or your portfolio companies. You can literally build sourcing systems around immigrant founder ecosystems, around regional demographics, around targeted communities. Then there's number four, you want to use repatriation as a narrative with US investors. See, when you talk to domestic LPS with onshore entities or underutilized structures, you can say, look, the government used repatriation, once at the macro level, to bring in capital home without printing money. See, we can do the same thing at your personal level. So let's move capital from low yield, onshore or idle structures into productive US, private deals that are inflation sensitive and cash flow generating. See, I have a friend that did that very thing, built almost, I believe, a $3 billion Portfolio off of just EB-5 Investments from foreign direct investment and helping people gain access to the US. It was a brilliant strategy. 

Ryan Miller  

So let's zoom out. America doesn't stay powerful because it's rich, America stays rich because it's powerful. Trade deficits, tariffs, immigration, repatriation, reserve currency status. See, these are not random news items, they're pieces of a well thought out system. And if you're a fund manager, you're not a spectator in that system. You are one of the tools the system uses to allocate capital. So if you want to help turn this into a repeatable advantage, I put together a one page tool for you called, The Dollar Empire Private Markets Playbook. It summarizes where to go for data, what to look up, what benchmarks to watch, and how to translate that into a private market strategy. 

Ryan Miller  

So here's what you do next. Check the link in the description to download a free copy of this playbook. So if you're serious about learning how to raise capital like a professional, or if you want to build a real fund, not just a deal or two, then here's what you do. Check the link in the description on how to raise your first 1 million or your next 100 million, and join a community of fund managers and deal makers that are absolute Masters of the Universe. And if this episode helped you see the game more clearly, I would love for you to subscribe, share it with another fund manager or deal syndicator and leave a review. So you're not just trying to survive the shifts in global power. You're building your empire inside of it. You do these things, and you too will be well on your way in your pursuit of Making Billions.

Ryan Miller  

Wow, what a show, I hope you enjoyed this episode as much as I did. Now, if you haven't done so already, be sure to leave a comment and review on new ideas and guests you want me to bring on for future episodes. Plus, why don't you head over to YouTube and see extra takes while you get to know our guests even better, and make sure to come back for our next episode, where we dive even deeper into the people, the process and the perspectives of both investors and founders. Until then, my friends, stay hungry. Focus on your goals and keep grinding towards your dream of Making Billions.