“You're literally taking your quarterback out of the game in the third quarter without anyone to replace him.” For the first time in American history, the US House of Representatives voted to unseat its Speaker as Kevin McCarthy was removed this week by a vote of all Democrats and 8 members of his own party. This followed on the heels of his decision to rely on Democratic votes to keep the government open.
Does this send a message that the days of compromise are over? Are the guardrails irreparably broken down? What happens next?
"Whatever your politics (and putting “politics aside”), having known Speaker McCarthy for 25 years, he is a good person who works tirelessly and cares deeply about the future of the country. He deserves our respect and gratitude." - Congressman Porter
In the latest PoliticsAside, Congressman Porter sits down with Rokk Solutions Co-Founder and renown political strategist Ron Bonjean to discuss how the events of the past 15 years got us to this point and how things might look moving forward.
“You're literally taking your quarterback out of the game in the third quarter without anyone to replace him.” For the first time in American history, the US House of Representatives voted to unseat its Speaker as Kevin McCarthy was removed this week by a vote of all Democrats and 8 members of his own party. This followed on the heels of his decision to rely on Democratic votes to keep the government open.
Does this send a message that the days of compromise are over? Are the guardrails irreparably broken down? What happens next?
"Whatever your politics (and putting “politics aside”), having known Speaker McCarthy for 25 years, he is a good person who works tirelessly and cares deeply about the future of the country. He deserves our respect and gratitude." - Congressman Porter
In the latest PoliticsAside, Congressman Porter sits down with Rokk Solutions Co-Founder and renown political strategist Ron Bonjean to discuss how the events of the past 15 years got us to this point and how things might look moving forward.
the politics aside. Hey, I'm Congressman John Porter. Appreciate you joining us today. There's a lot happening here in Washington DC, as there is every day, but certain things elevate to an all-time high level of importance, to not only the country but to the world. Again, right behind me, as you know, the debate's happening about what's gonna happen now that the seat has been vacated by the speaker of the house, mr McCarthy. What does it mean? What's gonna happen? Where did it come from? What is the history behind the changes in leadership on Capitol Hill?
Speaker 1:I read with interest this morning article in the Wall Street Journal and the headline was rebellion that took down McCarthy was more than a decade in the making and then interesting further in and the opinion page there's an article about no guardrails. So things have changed across the world. Things are changing with people's attitudes and how they approach public servants and public service. So I thought I'd bring in one of my good friends and expert to talk about just a little bit Ron Bonjean. We've been friends probably 20 plus years. One of the only persons that's led the lead spokesman for both the House of Representatives and the US Senate, strategic advisor to presidential transition teams. Also has served as spokesperson for two secretaries of commerce and, closer to home today into this world, co-founder of Rock ROKK Solutions bipartisan government affairs strategic planning organization in Capitol Hill.
Speaker 1:So, ron, you've been. You're in the Wall Street Journal, which is where facilitated my call to you today. You're in that article. You're all over NPR talking about the guardrails and talking about the history of how we got to where we are today. So, ron, this vote only took an hour last night, but it took longer to get to this point, right.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's right, congressman. Thanks so much for having me on too. I'm a huge fan of the show and it's a real honor to be here. I would say this that the rise of the Tea Party movement really focused around the feelings of overreach by Obamacare and the free trade agreements that were happening at that time. We had a real rise of the Tea Party movement, which facilitated that feeling.
Speaker 2:There was that feeling of disconnect between Washington and the rest of the country that started to foment and Donald Trump grabbed onto it in 2016, and which you started having real. The real MAGA movement occurred. What you've seen now is a group of hardline conservatives in the House of Representatives that take that approach that Donald Trump has taken the devil may care attitude of that looking out for oneself, kind of a lone wolf strategy. Instead of thinking about the betterment of the majority of Republicans that are 99, we're 99% behind Speaker McCarthy and they have decided to go their own way and making up the rules on their own and forcing the speaker into complying with those. So that's what you're seeing today is the result of. It's been really 13, 14 years in the making.
Speaker 1:So, if we go back in time, both of you, both of us have been involved with this process for some time and you saw it firsthand working for one of the speakers of the house. What do you think is happening right now in the speaker's office? What's happening with the team? What's happening with morale? What's going on?
Speaker 2:What a great question. Right now, speaker McCarthy's staff's heads are spinning. They're trying. They knew this day would come. They really did because of the motion of AK really hung out there over their heads, but it still stinks and their feeling is, and one of their top people texted me yesterday when I reached out to them said it feels like the bad guys want quote, unquote this one stinks type of thing. And that makes sense.
Speaker 2:The speaker pro tem, basically the person taking over for Speaker McCarthy, is Congressman Patrick McHenry, and this was a deal done in. It was kept secret in case anything were to happen to McCarthy, he would step in. So literally if something were to happen to the president or the vice president of the United States, patrick McHenry is in line for the presidency right now. He's very well respected at Capitol Hill strong likability, strong favorables and I think most Republicans would hope that he would run for Speaker of the House. But right now he's a caretaker speaker.
Speaker 2:He has set the rules. They're going to have an election in a week or so and that's it. That's his job is to basically facilitate the transition to the next speaker. He cannot rule over house business, but what's going on right now is the staff is being supportive to McHenry. They are being supportive to McCarthy and transitioning out of that office. That procedure will take place over the next week or two weeks or so. Some may be asked to stick around because of their expertise for the new incoming speaker and some will be finding new places of employment.
Speaker 1:Because, ron, you know that sometime what's forgotten is the staff and the team that is involved with leadership or even just in a congressional office. The front line is the men and women at work, whatever whether it's Democrat or Republican. So I mean our certainly kind words go out to all the staff right now. It's trying to find a place and to see what's going to happen to them. But I'd like to go back just again for a moment. When we talked a little bit about how we got here. I thought it was interesting that I thought I heard Congressman Gates say he had 30 plus votes, but at the end of the day it looks like maybe eight. What do you think has happened to that support? They have second thoughts or maybe they weren't always there.
Speaker 2:I think that they may have disliked McCarthy, but in the end they realized the gravity of the situation, that you're literally taking out your quarterback in the third quarter without anyone to replace them during the game and they frankly decided to not participate in it. And there was Congresswoman Nancy Mace supported the move. I was really surprised by that. That kind of came out of nowhere and only a couple of years ago McCarthy steered 2 million into her race, so I don't know what happened during that period of time where he supported her election into. That would appear to be an erosion of a relationship, but that's the thing. I think. Most people thought well, this is just taking it too far to remove them. But you had eight folks who decided that that's where they wanted to go. And you know Matt Gates. There's all kinds of reasons for him. Explanations are rationalizing it. The only one I can think of is that he may be running for governor in a couple of years and this may be something that really would help him.
Speaker 1:Well, again, the article, the opinion piece in the Wall Street today talks about guardrails and it seems like, whether it's in business world politics, it's all about shock, the shock effect and getting your name out there. I'm not here to judge the steps that have been taken, but more to figure out what's going to happen next. You did have Speaker McCarthy who, in a very bipartisan way, felt the important things to do for the country was to keep the government open, but does this send a message to other electives that the days of bipartisanship are over?
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think so. The days of deals are mostly done. Besides coming to an agreement on funding the government, that's usually one of the two or three vehicles that occur each year. Now, besides an emergency supplemental appropriations bill or something that's not as controversial that may unite Republicans and Democrats, there's only a few trains that leave the station to the president's desk for his signature. Nowadays, and the word compromise has been a very, very, very bad word over the past several years. The fact that McCarthy had to rely on Democratic votes to pass funding the government did not sit well with these eight folks and those who are up for replacing him. Right now we're hearing about Congressman Jim Jordan or House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. Both have been noted in the media as a little further to the right or a little more hard lined than McCarthy, so they may be tougher negotiators when it comes to dealing with the other side.
Speaker 1:Would your instincts say that some of this had to do with the presidential race coming up in the Trump world? Do you think there was some of that involved in this process yesterday?
Speaker 2:I think that the philosophy is there that's rubbed off on these members, especially Gates, which was I don't care about the institution, I don't care about my colleagues in this area, I'm looking out for myself and I'm looking out for my own political ambition, and I will claim I will use a reason you know, budgeting or working with Democrats or something but Gates also had to work with Democrats in order to get to the removal of McCarthy as well. So I do think that there is this Trump effect that has encouraged members to throw away the God rails, because if you throw them away, there really isn't much ramification. There's not much that the House Republican conference can do to those folks besides remove them, which would be highly unusual.
Speaker 1:Is there anything you think that Speaker McCarthy could have done or should have done differently?
Speaker 2:That's a great question. I think that he overestimated his support, meaning among those eight. I think he at first because he was so aggressive with his media posture. I think he was using that to intimidate those 30 members, which may have worked. He may have pulled away some of those members just through his media presence of saying to Matt Gates in a tweet, bring it on. And Gates responded I just did, you know, with the motion being so, that I think that, and he also, you know, he admitted in his or he noted in his press conference last night that he made phone calls to some of these members as well.
Speaker 2:I think he could have used some more time. He called the vote up first, right away, to get to dispose of it, and he had 48 hours to bring it up. So maybe had he waited a day and try to work over three more of those members and put the pressure on with his colleagues, maybe he would have been, maybe that would have worked, but I hindsight is 2020. The team before the vote, the McCarthy team, was not confident. They kind of knew that this was. This is the day.
Speaker 1:Well, because that's critical to leadership, whether you're the CEO of board of directors or organization, you kind of want to know the votes before you move forwards, and I guess this that's part of the success Do you bring a bill to the floor when you have votes or do you wait? So, as you said, they probably both pretty much knew walking into yesterday. They, being the Gates team and McCarthy team, kind of knew where it was going to end up, right.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think that's right, and maybe he just thought let's get this over with and maybe the pressure of the moment will will save the day in the democratic absences may play in his favor, which there were several, and I mean we didn't even make it to 2018 for the vote. So you know, when I saw Pelosi was out, and obviously for the Feinstein Center, feintin's funeral, right, but OK, well, now does this give McCarthy a chance? But no, unfortunately, unfortunately not.
Speaker 1:Well, on that subject and I know there's still some speculation on the non voting you can vote yay, nay, present, yes and no. Voting sends its own message and by understanding maybe a member of the Republican side was having a child, having a baby, couldn't attend. So maybe that's two of the six, but four. Do you think that was a message or they did? They chose that? They sent a message by not voting, or why did they not vote?
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's a great question. I don't know, but with a group that big with 435, life happens and there are some people that just don't make the vote, no matter how important it is because of because something has gotten in the way. I'm not sure where where those people were.
Speaker 1:Yeah, on a personal side, I have talked to a number of members and was at the Capitol right yesterday and then a little bit this morning. There is a feeling of, there is a, there is sadness throughout the body of Congress in that it came to this and there are certainly whether they're Democrat, republicans that I talked to share the concern of OK, what's next? And did it really have to come to this? Because the Republicans are going to control the House at least till next November. Certain things are going to stay, certain things have to remain, but there was a cloud of sadness and worry about the future of the country and the institution. Having been in the Speaker's office and serving with leadership, what's going to happen now? I mean, how does Congress move forward? How do they negotiate? And, like you said, where are we in this? I guess the third quarter how do they govern?
Speaker 2:I think that's a great question.
Speaker 2:First of all, I personally think it's a mistake for House Republicans to wait to elect their Speaker next Wednesday. Think that they should this is a national crisis, as you are saying and that they really should pick their person to put forward within 72 hours, frankly, and have that vote over the weekend probably Saturday and get a new Speaker in place and start focusing and moving that momentum forward to show that there was a stumble but we recovered quickly and we are in the game and we are moving forward to solve America's problems. The challenge is, I think they need a few extra days to sort through how they're going to deal with those hardline conservatives and that motion of AKT and how they manage to mitigate that, because I think an incoming Speaker needs to have more room to move and not have that sort of so that you know the guillotine over that person's head at all times. That's got to be just a terrible feeling for not just for the Speaker but for the whole leadership that it could change at a moment's notice because somebody one member is unhappy.
Speaker 1:Yes. So what does that mean then to the leadership of the freedom caucus? What did you anticipate now? They were successful in having a change, so did their power increase or diminish as the freedom caucus?
Speaker 2:I think there's some frustration within the freedom caucus about how this went down. I mean, you saw Chip Roy express his angst, others as well. I don't think they wanted to see it this happen this way. They wanted changes in policy, not necessarily changes in a speaker, and they knew institutionally this would damage our ability, the Republicans ability to hold the majority, and so I think that fallout is still occurring Within the Republican conference. The majority of members are really displeased with those eight members and probably with a freedom caucus at large. So I think we'll see some news coverage of freedom caucus dissent before they come back together at some point.
Speaker 1:So, with the process and we talked about moving forward where are the next steps? What could happen? But this, what's been established, is now a trend, as you know, now it's common now to have impeachment, so we're going to expect impeachments forever. Are we going to see this type of a coup happen forever, Assuming the rules don't change as far as having one person should not the Democrat leader feel the same and the next Republican leader in that have to worry about this every day?
Speaker 2:Well, I would say for now, if that rule doesn't change and you have a new speaker, then we could anticipate this. We changed another quarterback, you know, two, three months, seven months in again, like it could happen anytime. I mean, I would say that the Democrats removed this motion evade Kate when Speaker Pelosi assumed power and it only came back when the hardliners demanded it. But when the Democrats take over.
Speaker 1:They've seen what happens.
Speaker 2:They seem to fall much more in the line underneath. You know, sort of a top down effect they really are. There is much more control by the leadership over their members. On the Democratic side it feels like the Republican side. You know. It seems pretty clear right now.
Speaker 1:So this is as we've chatted. This could happen again. Could happen to Democrats or Republicans in this circumstance. Now, what are the Democrats thinking? What would their strategy be moving forward with this weak link now happening?
Speaker 2:Well, I think that they're overjoyed at watching Republicans fumble I'm using a lot of football terms today, but you know, fumble the ball and you know, have this major stumble. I mean, you know, when I, when I was looking at watching the coverage about whether or not Democrats would help McCarthy, I thought to myself why in the world? Well would they? I mean, you know, they want the majority back just as much as we want to hold on to it. So right now they're. They're talking about focusing on Republican dysfunction. They're zeroing in on it and in. You know, and you know.
Speaker 1:Well, ron, you're a strategist. Your advice would be probably similar, right?
Speaker 2:Yeah, I know Totally, that's what I'm thinking I'm the Democrats, there is blood in the water and I want to keep it focused on Republicans. I also don't want to get in the way of the fall.
Speaker 1:You know, they say if they're, if they're plushing themselves, you just stand back. Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 2:That's exactly right. You do not. You do not take away the shovel while they're digging their own hole, while they're members or Democrats commenting all over the media. I don't think they're trying to. They're they're. They're definitely excited, but I think they want to focus, and naturally so. It's very hard to take the focus off of us right now when we don't have a speaker of ours.
Speaker 1:You know we live in these news cycles and social media cycles, you know. There I question how many people are paying attention other than leaders around the world and certain leaders in the U? S. But a family that's worried about paying their bills and getting their kids to school and education and feeding their family probably aren't paying attention to this right, or are they?
Speaker 2:And that's exactly why I think it's important for Republicans to elect their speaker as soon as possible and not let this drag out, because every day that goes by is another day that Americans can be educated about what happened. Right now, the news coverage is so saturated with a lot of events and watching them, the morning coverage on the morning shows the speakers. You know the. The. The Speaker McCarthy story was just one of half a dozen major stories and they didn't give it the treatment that I think it would have received 10 years ago. You know where it would have dominated in the first 15 minutes, because we're just so used to crisis after crisis in our country and that it's function of government, you know, and the legal now the legal peril that Donald Trump is in all kinds of things we've just gotten used to as a country.
Speaker 1:Well and, as we started, there are no guardrails, but I do believe that, at the end of the day, this too will pass and Congress will get back, focused on taking care of America and, like I said, what's going to be really in the next news cycle. I think, as we're looking now down the road, how does this impact the race for the White House, and that's today? I mean, we're in that race. How's it going to impact it?
Speaker 2:I'm not sure if it does at the moment. It may get referred to by the Democrats during by President Biden closer to the election, maybe in ads, but think about the election happening 13 months from now. This will be long forgotten. If we elect a speaker and that speaker is still there 13 months from now and hasn't been replaced, I think most people, except for Washington insiders, would have forgotten about what happened today. So I don't know how much it would affect the race the really the race for the White House at this moment, Because there's a very small group of independents out there. Either you really like Donald Trump or hate Donald Trump, or you really like Joe Biden or don't like Joe Biden. There are just so few people that haven't made up their minds.
Speaker 1:And again, there's so much noise, there's so much competition and that's, I guess, why we have this shock and awe at times in politics. The former Speaker McCarthy and his words he mentioned, at least in the interviews he was disappointed in Nancy Pelosi. And then, as you note, the current speaker acting speaker last night, I believe suggested or has demanded that former Speaker Pelosi leave her office on Capitol Hill. What does this mean? What is this all about?
Speaker 2:I'm still kind of scratching my head about it. I mean it feels like sore loser feeling of being a sore loser. Honestly, as a former House Republican leadership staffer, I do sympathize with the team up there, what just happened and I think they're getting that. They have a lot of hard feelings and I think that's now pouring over into real estate and asking Pelosi not asking demanding that she leave her office and I don't know if it's necessary. That was really necessary to do. But again, I don't have as much information beyond what I read and what it looks to me is a little bit of a hard feelings that turn into sore loser kind of behavior. But you know.
Speaker 1:I guess we have a few moments left, but you and I have spent time in those offices that are in the Capitol, based upon leadership, based upon teamwork a lot of number of reasons that you're provided as a member of Congress, what they call hideout or a office in the Capitol complex. Can you walk through kind of how that works? How do you get one of those offices? Yeah, great question.
Speaker 2:Well, it's usually by rank, first of all. You know if the more senior you get, the more possibilities you have to have a, have a quote, hideout, unquote, and those hideouts, those offices are usually just that, they're smaller, they're not these giant places, but they do have a place for you to sit, watch TV. It has a bathroom, it has a few things that you need, especially when there are lots of votes going on, especially into the early hours of the morning. It's nice to have that. It's also nice for meetings to take meetings if you're a member that's constantly near the floor and need that type of space. So, but again, the real estate is very few and you know, pelosi has been speaker, you know, I think, the longest serving Democratic speaker, I believe, or female speaker, and she had her office space. I don't think it was necessary to remove her, but that's that was the feeling.
Speaker 1:Well, I I did, certainly didn't always agree with her, nor would expect you, but I have a lot of respect for the right speaker. Pelosi Always was very cordial and respectful of the process and especially meeting of my constituents. Again, I wasn't sure if you had some insight, info on how that came about.
Speaker 2:I mean there's some hard feelings between Pelosi and the Republican leadership that go back a long time. Wow, there is some respect there. There is also been lack of respect by Pelosi towards the House Republican leadership to but didn't Kevin say that?
Speaker 1:he thought she said that she was with him.
Speaker 2:No, but she may have. But I I saw news coverage that said Pelosi said Do not support him at all.
Speaker 1:By the way, I did see the news clip but I thought and referred to, but I guess again, as time's coming to close, we talked a little bit about the impact on Capitol Hill. What does it mean for leadership, what does it mean for the freedom caucus, what does it mean for staff? But I think there is a another question that is paramount, and you represent Fortune 500 companies, preparations, nonprofits and lots of different groups. Are they paying attention to this? Are your clients as the rule?
Speaker 2:or or they just expect this and and just watch and listen and walk and wait for the next step now they're paying very close attention because who's in charge matters and the policies that they're advocating for, and this is such a major seismic shock in Washington that if you're a Head of a Washington office, you're really watching who's what's going on here and who's gonna who's gonna take over. Plus, this town is based on relationships and, and Now that there's a scramble To see who's next and where those relationships settle.
Speaker 1:Well, I would encourage that to all those that are listening today to Ron and to our conversation pay close attention to Rock solutions. As I mentioned, ron is a co-founder, but they play a marriage. Your court, your company, plays a major role in in this relationship building. So I highly encourage everyone to tune into a lot of things that you're working on, because you're cutting edge and I appreciate that. So, end of the day, thank you for joining us on politics aside. Hopefully you're able to put all puts aside, at least personal politics aside, for a few minutes today, as we talked as well Banching. So thank you all, we appreciate it and, ron, talk to you soon.
Speaker 2:Thank you much, congress, thank you very much.