February 2024 Residential Statistics Report

David and Julie discuss the latest release of Stats on March 20th and how they see the residential single family and condo market in St Petersburg and greater Pinellas County.  Feel free to give feedback and provide questions for David and Julie.  They're happy to talk at length about absorption, inventory and pricing.  

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you!

Transcript

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Hello, I'm Julie Jones and I'm David Vann with the Real Property St. Pete Podcast and REMAX Metro. It's so exciting that we are going to do my favorite episode. It's actually pretty exciting that this episode is coming out so quickly. Bringing you real time information about what's going on in the market. No doubt about it. The condition of the market. If you've listened to our most recent podcast about the changes from NAR regarding buyer agency and offerings in the MLS of compensation, those changes are pretty important. And the way that's handled is going to have a lot to do with the way the market's behaving. So I know it's your opinion that The transition to a buyer's market will impact how that's handled differently than if we were still in 2020, 2021 COVID crazy seller's market. Right. I mean, I think the sellers are going to be motivated to pay the buyer's agent. That's going to be an incentive. I think so too. And I would say that of my current listing inventory, most of my clients have approached me making sure that I know and that buyer's agents know that they will still consider compensation based on where they're listed currently. Yeah. I think that's, that's good to know. I didn't know that. Yeah, I think it's a helpful reference. I actually had several of my sellers call me and say, what do we need to do based on this new NAR settlement and making sure that buyers, agents know that they will still be paid a commission by us. And I said, well, there's nothing to worry about right now. We still have several months before those changes go into place, but. That's good to know and I'll make sure that as we get closer to that July date when potential changes might be made to the MLS and offers of compensation that agents have a way to know that you're willing to do that. And May the 9th is a key date too because that's when this ruling will be confirmed in the courts. So we'll have an idea of when that's going to happen. What's happening, the proposal for the lawsuit. This is a settlement proposal you know, 418 million in compensation and then some changes to the practices, which we're talking about, but let's get on with the fun stuff. So the February market, that is All about the transactions that happened in February of 2024. this is mid to late March here, March the 26th. And last week March 20th, these statistics came out and we're here to report on them and see if we can tell that what we've been seeing is what actually happened in the overall market on a broader sense. And so that's. What we're here to talk about today. Well, I can't wait to hear what the numbers are, David. And I know you will let us know. Yes. Okay. So the number of sales that closed in February of 2024 was 730 single family homes versus 23, 772 homes closed, which meant a drop in 5. 4 percent in the actual number of sales. However, I'm going to interrupt you. I know you like to keep. Rattling those numbers off, but I'm going to stop you because my question was, I do think that's a better result overall than last month. Yes. Last month it was 574 closed sales, which we have been talking about the difficult market in November and December. And those. Sales were 574. Those closings in January, that was their number 570. Now we're at 730, which is a lot better than January, but it's worse than February of 23. Yeah. So year to year, the statistics are down, the numbers are up, which are. I always like to find the positive in things and that's good and you said I feel like the February March numbers are gonna show More sales. So in fact they do. Yeah. Well the dollars are higher too. So the total dollar volume was 439 million versus 447 million I mean, significantly more than what the January sales were, but you know, still down 1. 7 percent compared with 23 and our pricing is up 5%. So that all makes a lot of sense. We sell fewer homes for higher prices and our volumes just about the same. That makes sense. I always look for those statistics that really stick out like a sore thumb. Yeah. That's my favorite one is your favorite piece. It is. I like to find that little nugget. And so I have. three. Okay. And they are really built together. So in February of 24 last month, we had 1227 new homes go on the market. Last year in February, we only had 912. That's 300 more homes went on the market in February of 24 versus 23, which is a 35 percent increase in the number of new listings. That's a big jump. It's a big jump and it follows that trend we've been talking about, which is. Buyers finally have some choices so that you can actually take a buyer out to look at more than just one or two homes and and that creates a more balanced market. I'm actually pleased that people have some options. Yeah, and so they're putting their houses on the market. So the inventory is building. That's good. My next big hot topic is the actual number of active listings. So how does the full inventory look? In February of 2024, we have 2, 440 homes on the market. In February of 23, there were only 1, 600. Yikes houses on the market. There are 830 more homes on the market this February than last February. And that's a 52 percent increase wow. That's a lot more. It's a lot more. So that's a huge surge in what the inventory looks like. as you might expect, when the number of sales are down, By 5%, that's the number of houses sold. And the number of listings that are available goes up by 50%. The month supply of inventory, or what we like to call the absorption rate also. Surges. And so we are solid at three months of inventory versus 1. 8 months of inventory in February of last year. That's a 67 percent increase in the supply of inventory based on sales. So, you know, the top number is sales. The bottom number is inventory. And that ratio basically shows us what that absorption rate is and how many months of inventory there is. The other thing I wanted to talk about on the month's supply of inventory we have started in February 23. Like I just said, 1. 8 months was the number of months. And we stayed 1 7 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 7 1. 9 September of 23. We moved to 2. 2. three months and then October it was 2. 6 months and November was 2. 9 months and December it was 2. 7 and January is 2. 8. Finally, we pierced the 3. 0 month in February. So we're close. Anyway, but we didn't ever quite get there, but we conquered the three months supply. And so I think it's important to note that this is a very strong and useful indicator of market conditions. Yes. That month of inventory. Because it balances sales and inventory. Yes, exactly. So anything higher than, Five and a half months of inventory is traditionally a buyer's market and anything lower is a seller's market. And there's no single way of calculating this, but a common method is to divide the inventory by the most recent clothes sales count. And that's how you figure that number, right? The count, not the dollars. So according to economists, we're still in a seller's market, maybe represented by the prices being up. Yes, Absolutely. I don't know if that, we always talk about metrics that we look at in these statistics and is that a good metric, like same thing about, you know, giving us the information about new listings that are less than 50, 000. How many of those are those? Zero. And how many listings are available that have been listed that are between 50 and a hundred? How many? Zero And how many listings are there between a hundred and 149,000.$150,000? 100 to one 50. How many list listings do you think we got there? Zero. We have four. Oh, well, there's actually four listings. The last category is 150 to 200, 000 and we have 14 listings there. So of those bottom four categories, nearly a third. Zero to 200. Yeah, zero to 200. There's 18 listings. Wow. How many listings do you think there are? Between 300 and 400, I don't know. 239? I mean, so there's four 18 listings between zero to 200 and from 300 to 400, there's 240. I mean, it's just a huge disparate between the number of properties that we're talking about. I think our market, in general, the market prices, have, in the 10 years that we we're talking about on these numbers, the median price is significantly high. In Pinellas County. It's not anywhere near those 200, 000 statistics. The median. No. Right. But we also have a significant inventory of homes over a million dollars, which we had not for a very long time. So our market's just changed, it's the prices are different. There's a lot of new construction in our community. I said a 600, 000 buyer is not ever going to buy a 900, 000 house. Right. It just doesn't happen. So, I mean, it'd be better to break that down to 600 to 800. I feel your frustration level on these numbers. Well, I know you love them. So, well, it just would be good to see what these price points are because they're the most popular price points, having an idea of where to put them. price something when you're trying to hit that middle market, 600 to a million, what's the right number? Or even right in the median price point between 400 and 600 to have the breakdown. It makes a big difference to the people who are buying them. Yes. It makes a big difference. So I asked the question about how this looks for condos because I happen to have a decent amount of condo inventory right now. I have one. I have many. I have one. At one, the condo we have been talking about each month, and the same things that are happening in the single family home are also happening here. So here's my more dramatic though. I feel we've discussed this that the increase in. Insurance costs for buildings, HOA fees is putting a greater impact on these numbers. So let's hear what they are. Basically the number of new listings is 1111 versus 872. So these are a February versus February year over year. That's an increase of 27%. The number of active listings of condos on the market in Pinellas County is 3400 versus 1800 last year. That's an 89 percent increase in the inventory. And the number of months supply of inventory is 5. 5 months. So you talked about that 5. 5 months earlier. That's a shift to a buyer's market. That's exactly where economists say the shift happens. Yeah, 5. 5 months is where we're at right now. It was 2. 8 months in February last year. That's an important number as setting an expectation for a condo seller because that's the amount of time you should expect that it's going to take for your unit to sell. Well, some of these mid level, well under the median price for our markets, It's, you know, condos under 300, 000, their HOA fee monthly can be anywhere from seven to 800 a month. That's a heavy carrying cost for six months. And you said you had some who went up 250. They did. that's a significant effect on value. It's a significant effect because the difference between what your loan, what your HOA fee Let's say you're buying a condo with a loan how much more buying power do you have when you added another 250 a month to your payment amount? I mean, you have less, a lot less. Considering taking your price down to make up for that, I think it's going to be the only solution to help that month's supply of inventory. I think those are external factors that are really hurting the condo market they're represented in the fact that the inventory has doubled and sales are down, I think those factors are represented in what these numbers look like. Exactly. And they, you know, it was 2. 8 February last year, 5. 5 this year. That's a 96. 4 percent increase in the months of supply, which is basically 100%, which means the inventory and the time on market and the month's supply is doubled. So, That's the tough story, right? Well, I mean, I would agree except for that. Fortunately the market has improved significantly. So even if you haven't owned your condo for a long time, you still can, come out with a net positive outcome. Hopefully. Oh, so you're saying just that the equity position of these condo owners is such that. The run up we've had in the last three years has put them in a position that if they need to lower the price To get it sold and be competitive in a market like this. They have the equity to do so I believe yes I think that's right. So if they want to sell the best way to do it is to improve that price. Yes That's a great way to end the statistics for this month. Yeah, that's good. I think we got a solution for people. And it's good for people to know what's happening out there, especially sellers. You said that you had a seller who listened to the podcast. And we gave some advice about making it work out with the buyer if you have one. And? I made a deal this week. That's right. Great. Congratulations. Thank you very much. And I got my two listings under contract too in the last couple weeks and they're going to be closing. I'm going to say something. You made a few deals close this week also. I did. That was last week. It was very exciting. It was a career week for me. Congratulations, David. Thank you. Thank you. Very exciting.$9 billion. I'm very proud of you. Wow. In wow. in one, in one week of sales, one week of sales. Awesome. Yeah. Awesome. Result it. Very exciting. Thank you. Mm-Hmm. Well, I'm Julie Jones. And I'm David Van with the Real Property St. Pete Podcast and re max Metro. Thanks for listening today. Subscribe and follow us and we look forward to seeing you next time on the show.