Sept 2025 Market Report: St Petersburg and Pinellas County Real Estate

Top 10 Takeaways — Real Property St. Pete Podcast

September 2025 Market Report (Compared to August 2025)

1. Year-over-year comparisons are useless right now
   Last September and October were distorted by hurricane prep, evacuations, and a complete halt in buyer activity. For the next two months, the only meaningful metric is month-to-month.
2. Median & average sale prices both dropped
   • Median fell $10K, hitting a new low of $425K (after bottoming at $435K four times in the last year).
   • Average dropped $23K to $565K.
3. Inventory is shrinking sharply
   Active listings moved from 4,200 in May → 3,647 now. The drop across all price points above $300K is the primary driver of today’s lower month-supply.
4. Months’ supply falls back to 4.2
   This is the lowest level since January/February. The decline is driven by fewer new listings, not a surge in sales.
5. Sellers are stepping back
   New listings dropped to 1,019, the lowest since December 2024. Many homeowners who don’t have to sell are choosing to sit tight.
6. Buyers want to “murder” sellers—but sellers aren’t having it
   Buyers want deep discounts. Some sellers with big equity are willing to take them; others are holding firm and waiting out the turbulence.
7. Closings down in nearly every price segment
   Particularly above $300K, September saw noticeably fewer closings than August. The only segment showing growth was $200–$250K, which is largely distressed/flood-impacted inventory returning.
8. Speed is improving despite soft pricing
   • Median time to contract: 48 → 42 days
   • Median time to sale: 84 → 77 days
   Even in a choppy market, motivated buyers are acting faster.
9. Flood insurance realities dominate buyer/seller psychology
   From NFIP shutdown concerns to private policies quoted at $20K, flood exposure is directly influencing negotiations, valuations, and willingness to transact.
10. Pinellas flood risk explained like never before
    • Over $3.2B in NFIP claims for 2024
    • 22,584 claims filed
    • Pinellas is the most densely populated county in Florida and qualifies as a barrier island, which is why flood premiums are among the highest in the state.
    This sets up a future episode on policy, insurance, and the legislative proposals affecting homesteaded and non-homesteaded owners.

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