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The Day Camp Enrollment Cliff - with Jake Sorenson and Jonathan Gold - The Day Camp Pod #139

• Go Camp Pro • Episode 139

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Birth Rate Drops, Demographic Shifts, and How Day Camps Can Adapt


Enrollment isn’t just “feeling” tighter, there’s real data behind the shift, and it’s coming for camps faster than many leaders expect. In this episode, Jake Sorenson and Jonathan Gold break down the demographic cliff, what it means for your program, and why 2028 should already be on your radar. More importantly, they move beyond the problem and offer practical ways to adapt, from rethinking older camper experiences to doubling down on what makes camp truly indispensable. If you want to stay ahead of enrollment challenges (instead of reacting to them), this is a must listen.

  • 06:20 Why Data Matters
  • 07:13 Median Age Warning Signs
  • 09:12 Demographic Cliff Explained
  • 13:48 Societal Shifts, Smaller Families
  • 16:36 Immigration, Diversity Impact
  • 21:07 Regional Differences ,Local Data
  • 28:48 Making the Case for Camp
  • 30:48 Small Camps Biggest Risk
  • 32:38 Be Undeniably Great
  • 33:21 Culture Shifts And Shorter Stays
  • 34:21 Affordability And Funding Paths
  • 37:23 AI Proof Value Pitch
  • 38:35 Disaster Planning For Enrollment Drops
  • 40:34 Staffing Shifts And Camp Winners
  • 43:51 Grandparents And Donor Strategy
  • 45:42 Middle School And Teen Opportunity
  • 47:41 Modernize Beyond Tradition
  • 49:55 Personal Touch Beats Automation

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SPEAKER_05

As we approach the 2026 camp season, we're gonna put a little more pressure on your shoulders, as so many of my day camp colleagues across the country have been sharing their frustrations and the lack of campers signing up this winter and fall. First off, you're not crazy. And so soon here we are slowly spiraling into an age of less kids born, hence less campers, who will then become less staff, who will then become less parents. It's a sobering report, resulting in an enrollment cliff from not just less babies, but also societal change, cost of living, and sheer math. Joining us is a guy you'll be hearing a lot more of these days, Jake Sorensen. He's a camp guy and a PhD researcher. So this is a discussion rooted in facts, not anecdotes, facts that will hopefully show that if your camp is going to survive and thrive in the next decade, you better create an experience that is so undeniable that everyone in your area wants to be there. And that starts with this summer, folks. This is the daycamp pod.

SPEAKER_01

This is the daycamp pod from Go Camp Pro, bringing you the best ideas, strategies, and discussions in the daycamp industry. You can find our show notes at daycamppodcast.com.

SPEAKER_04

The Daycamp Podcast is brought to you by CRS, commercial recreation, go to source for recreation solutions that will ensure that your camp arrives. Explore their website today at CRS more of CRS is fun. Let me tell you about Camp Miner, the number one camp database in the world that has the most robust offerings experience account anywhere. Every teacher works together to create a policy system that helps your camp office run more efficiently while giving your campaigns into the art of communication and financial. Check out the details at campminer.com.

SPEAKER_05

AM Skyre is the leading insurance and strategic partner for many of the finest camps in America. AM SkyR partners with camps to provide public relations, legal, medical, behavioral support, and more. Experience the AM Skyer difference. Learn more at amskire.com. Welcome back to the J Camp Podcast. I'm Andy Pritikan, Director of Liberty Lake in the Philly suburbs, New Jersey.

SPEAKER_06

I'm Sam Thompson, Crystal Lake Park District in Crystal Lake, Illinois.

SPEAKER_05

And we are joined today by our old friend Jonathan Gold. Welcome back, Jonathan. And you're Jonathan, you're not even in Florida.

SPEAKER_03

You're in the world. No, it's go time. It's go time. You're in battle mode.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah. Go time, man.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

I love it. And and our special guest today is Jake Sorensen from Sacred Playgrounds. I'm going to have him introduce himself in a second. But I heard Jake on a camphacker podcast that shook me in my boots. It was it was terrific. And it's the kind of stuff that Jonathan has been talking about for the last year or two with me. And I just thought it's great to have people with opinions that are backed with data. And so if we can do that for our listeners, why the hell not? So, yeah, so it's going to be a little Nostradamus here, but it's fact-based Nostradamus. All right. So, Jake, why don't you tell everybody who you are?

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, thanks for having me. It's uh it's a pleasure to be here. My name is Jake Sorensen, and I'm the director at Sacred Playgrounds. And so we serve mainly Christian summer camps throughout the United States and Canada and do a lot of evaluation and research in the Christian camping field, and we do a lot of training and in-person and online and resource generation. And so we've got a small team, small but mighty, and we love to get on site at camps and be present with people in their ministries and help them succeed. And so we try to you know generate insights and connect partners to help camp ministries thrive.

SPEAKER_05

And how about yourself as a as a camp camper, camp professional, that kind of thing? What's your camp story?

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Thanks for asking. I I so I'm I'm in western Wisconsin and I I grew up right along the Mississippi River and was first went to camp as part of a church confirmation program. The pastor forced us to go. It was part of the program. And so I probably wouldn't have gone if I if I hadn't been encouraged and forced to go, so to speak. But I just had such an incredible time, you know, as one does. And it was a sleepaway camp. It was a week long and uh just made some great friends and was inspired by the counselor and the staff and ended up going back the following year. And then when I graduated high school, the the camp was looking for male staff, as they oftentimes are in May. It was May. I was a senior school.

SPEAKER_05

That's that's that's when they emerged, that come out of their caves. That's fraternity houses.

SPEAKER_02

That's exactly right. Well, I was still in high school, and so the director came up and invited me to uh to apply, and so I ended up working on summer staff for the next several summers. I worked at Sugar Creek Bible Camp in southwest Wisconsin, and then out at Sky Sky Ranch in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, Sky Ranch Lutheran Camp, and then was out at Crossroads out there in New Jersey, so in northern New Jersey, in your guys' neck of the woods, and then got into camping full time. And it was what while I was in camping full time, and I was in the program director role, hiring the staff, and that's when I started asking the questions about data. And there's all these books out there about youth ministry and people in the church and things like that. And I said, Where is it about camp? Why isn't there any books? Why isn't there any research? And eventually a mentor said, Well, maybe you need to do something about that. So a little over 10 years ago, I went back to school, got my PhD, and focused on the these questions about camp and what is camp all about. You know, I had this incredible life-changing experience. Is that common? Or am I sort of an exception? And most people just kind of have more of a mundane experience. We always talk about life-changing experiences at camp. Well, how common is that really? And so started diving into that and really got excited and interested in research and thought I would teach somewhere after that. But more and more camps came up to me and said, Hey, could you do this with us too? We would like some insights about our programs. And so kind of fell into this camp research world and have found it to be a really rich and rewarding experience.

SPEAKER_05

It's really great. I mean, Jonathan sounds good to me. Jonathan is very data-driven, and and he gets very frustrated by the lack of data that people make decisions by.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. As we all should all of us who are camp directors should be should should make decisions based on data. But it doesn't need mean we need to be professional researchers and and and do sort of the broad picture stuff that we do at Sacred Playgrounds, but at your specific site, knowing your metrics, knowing your data, and then making decisions based on that is so important in our field. Amen. Amen. Amen, brother. Even got an amen from the back. That's great. I appreciate that.

SPEAKER_03

It's so important. It's so important. And yeah, and the the frustrating part is that the data's sitting right in front of you. Correct. You just gotta glean it. You just got you just gotta glean it out. And and I that that in and of itself can get frustrating sometimes, but I'm I'm excited to hear what you have to say. Awesome, awesome.

SPEAKER_05

So so so in in the podcast that I heard Jake on, he had it sort of started with this young lady who runs a program at a college, and the college folks were all brought in one day, not just the camp people, the college people. And the president gave a war to them all that times are going to get tougher. And and you know, it you guys were talking a lot about 28, you know, where the median age would be 11. Well, this is the day camp pod. All right. So we're already there, Jake. Most of our colleagues are having a tough time enrolling people right the heck now.

SPEAKER_03

Andy, can I can I interject? Also, okay, also heard the podcast, and I immediately went to all three camps and did the data analysis on what the median age at the three camps were. Because I I'm in three different markets in New Jersey, and uh it was actually pretty interesting. Two of them were almost identical, and the one in Moritz County was significantly younger, 7.89 by a year. The other two are 8.69 and 8.71. So you're dead on. We're we're already in it. We're already in it.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, so we have a predominance of older campers right now, and we're we're missing a lot of younger ones right now. So we're we're already seeing that. We we had this huge influx of younger kids right around the pandemic, and now these kids are now older, and now they're gonna be going bye-bye. And we don't, we're not replacing them the way that we used to already.

SPEAKER_02

Well, there's some there's some really interesting demographic reasons for these things, and we can we can chat about that because the demographic the demographic cliff is a real thing, and you know, you you say you're there, the the reality is we're just starting, we're just at the edge of it.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03

Well, please go on. Because I did I did a look, I took a look at my younger campers and those numbers prior to this podcast, and they say exactly what you were talking about in the in the camp hack podcast was dead on.

unknown

Yep.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, so so when I when I was invited to be on the camphacker podcast by our good friend Travis Allison, he you know, he he kind of talked about this enrollment cliff, and it it just sounds like clickbait when you hear it. And it's like, okay, really an enrollment cliff, right? And so what I did was I contacted some of the people that I know and was able to get on the phone with a demographer. His name's Ken Gronbach, and he's really well known throughout the country, does a lot of stuff on on markets and market research based on demography, and so has got some some really great materials out there. And I talked with him through it, and he said, Oh, yeah, this is real and this is coming. And one of the key dates to note is 2007. So 2007 is really important in demography because it is the largest single birth cohort in United States history. Let me say that again. 2007 is the largest number of live births in United States history. There were over 4.3 million babies born that year, and that was more than at the height of the baby boom. So that's 2007, right? And we know what happened in late 2007 and into 2008. We know it as the Great Recession. And the Great Recession coincided with the first of these demographic cliffs, okay? And so for the next about three to four years, there was a a pretty rapid decline in the number of live births, and so it declined almost eight percent. And so you think of that, let's go, okay, there were still almost four million live births each year, but that's a big percentage drop in the number of potential humans that could be sent to camp, right? And so anytime you see a drop like this, it ripples through each of the industries. And this was this was one of the things that that that Ken talked about was it's it affects every single one of these industries, and it starts with those that cater to young children, childcare centers, schools, camps, and so forth. And so the reason that the colleges were the first ones to start talking about this, and they were starting to talk about this last year, 2025 was last year. If you add the freshman college year to 2007, so you get 18 plus 2007, that's last year. They were just coming to the edge of that first big demographic cliff. Now, of course, Camp had already started to see that. But here's what's what's interesting is that we've already seen that leading edge of that 2007 cliff, and it kind of leveled off, so to speak, in terms of the number of live births until the key year of 2016. You might know that there was a presidential election that year, there was a lot of divisiveness, and there was a lot of anti-immigration sentiment and policy in the years immediately following. We can see a sharp demographic decline in the number of live births starting in the year 2017. And so that's the second demographic cliff that we see. And so, all the way up until 2023, which is the the most recent year that we have really reliable data, in 2023, there were the it was the lowest birth cohort since 1979. The lowest birth cohort since 1970. And so we really see a big drop. So that first demographic cliff and then a second one, and the leading edge of that second one is what's hitting us now, and that followed through all the way, so 2016 to 2017, all the way to the big drop in 2020 during COVID and 2021. And so that's where we're really gonna start seeing it. So when I when I when I mention the year 2028 as the big demographic cliff, what happens that year is that COVID generation, 2020 group, they become camper age, seven, eight years old. And that next demographic cliff that starts in 2017, they reach the median overnight camper age, which is 11 to 12.

SPEAKER_05

Got it. So, Jonathan, what was the name of that demographer that used to come in? Fred? Ah, yeah, I can't remember Andrew. That's a long time. I I loved him though. He was wonderful, and he used to talk about the really baby boom and the boomlets and all that. He would draw these big graphs, and you'd see that.

SPEAKER_06

I I am seeing my preschool drop this year was the first year that they that reduced. So that resonated with me. Sorry.

SPEAKER_05

That's okay. But I I I think that besides the boom and boomlet, like the grand things happening, I think we just have some weird societal things happening too. Correct. Where you have these young parents who would normally be having kids not having kids, right? The price of everything is insane. People have AI girlfriends, and people are not going out, getting drunk, and hooking up. They're not they they're not behaving the way that they used to. And, you know, Jonathan gave a session I was at recently, and he was talking about the replacement rate of humans, you know, being 2.1, and we're currently at 1.7. And 20 years ago, we were at like what, 3.00 or 3.5. So it it I think that society's had a weird moment as well. And that's just that's making it even worse than it would have been of the ups and downs that happen normally of schools closing and schools opening. We've seen this in our entire lives, in our lower lives, but I think that we're at a weird time now where you know, young people are they're not gonna buy a house, they're just gonna rent, they're not, they're waiting to have families. I was talking to Jonathan yesterday, talking about the amount of parents that we have that are in their 40s that are just aren't going to age.

unknown

Right.

SPEAKER_05

Um, it's just it's different.

SPEAKER_03

Here here's another here's another great thing to do. I I was after after listening to that podcast, I I was looking. How many triples? How many parents with three kids do you have in your camp? Because if you do, if you have a lot, you're in the tiny, tiny minority, only one percent.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, well, be well, besides the fact that only 10% of US families have more than two kids. Okay, which is an insane statistic. Ten percent of US family. That's yeah, then just think about the what the cost for three kids is. Yeah, you know, of having three kids.

SPEAKER_03

If we go back to the 2000s and the 90s, they were they were all over camp. You you had three three kid families everywhere.

SPEAKER_02

So the millennial generation, which would have been that cohort that was born in the 90s, is larger numerically than the baby boom generation. It's the largest numeric age cohort that we have. If you divide it by 20 years, right? If you you know, I know there's all these debates about what a generation is, and people keep trying to change the length of time that a generation is, but if you keep it the same, which doesn't drop demographics, but they're not responsible at all for that year, that that huge year that you mentioned.

SPEAKER_05

Right. Right?

SPEAKER_02

That's right, that's right.

SPEAKER_06

Now my son got married later, they had kids later, they only had two. My daughter has three, but her husband came from a family of like 10. So that's a big difference. I mean, growing up with that mindset and then compromise. Yes, exactly.

SPEAKER_02

One of the things that's really driven population growth in the United States over the last 20 to 30 years has been immigration. And so immigrants coming into the country, but also tending to have more children than native-born folks. And with the anti-immigration policies that we've seen over the last 10 years, that has really stemmed the flow of immigration and has dissuaded people who are immigrants from having children. And so it's been that's been a challenge as well. And so there's been pressure on the immigrant community in that sense. The other thing that camp that I think is important for us to remember in the camping field, especially with overnight camps, but day camps to a lesser extent as well, that camp has historically been a white space. And so people of color, while they do participate in camp generally, do have done so to a lesser degree than white families. And so as we see the population become more diverse, and that is happening, and so now the the youngest age cohorts, 2024 is a is a big year because 2024 was the first year where there were more people of color born in this country than white babies. And the demographic turn is going to come somewhere in the 2040s, probably, where whites become it becomes a majority-minority country. And so the white people will be under 50% of the total population. But that's already happening with our camps when we think nationwide, right? Of course, different pockets are very, very different in terms of the demographics. But this is one of the other things that's putting pressure on camp because camp is a historically white space, which means there might not be as rich of a tradition of going to camp, whether that be day camp or overnight camp, with it among families of color. And so as we get more diverse, as we get fewer families in general, fewer children in general, we we kind of get a double pressure in the camping industry.

SPEAKER_05

But also from Jonathan's little research project he did in the last couple of days, it appears that the wealthier areas are having less kids. Correct. Right? So if the poor areas, they're already poor, they don't care, they'll have another kids, you know, kind of thing. And and they have younger, you know, they they have kids younger and all those kind of things. That's not necessarily our our market for sending the kids to camp, anyway. I mean, Sam runs a municipal program, she's gonna get them all shapes and sizes, right? All different.

SPEAKER_06

I get that market. You guys get the yeah, more well enough.

SPEAKER_05

But for but for a lot of the a lot of our listeners who, like you said, Jake, I mean, you cut right to the chase, it's a white thing and it's an affluent thing for a lot of camps. Camp ain't cheap, right? In South Jersey. I I've been saying this in South Jersey, which is not an affluent area, generally speaking. Girl Scout camp, day camp is $600 a week. Wow. Right? Yeah. So it costs a lot of money to send your kids to camp these days. It just does. And if you're pulling from this shrinking market and they're having less kids, care. The Daycamp podcast is brought to you by CRS, commercial recreation specialist, your go-to resource for the latest programming and recreation solutions to help your campers thrive. Check out the all-new water tag, where campers suit up in special vests to blast away with high-powered water launchers for the ultimate splash battle. Rev up the fun with new pump tracks, a modular, easy-to-install bike course that brings the need for speed to any camp setting. And when it's time to cool down, FlexJade delivers stylish, innovative shade with maximum coverage and minimal impact on your site. CRS offers prefabricated cabins, pavilions, and restroom buildings everything you need to create a better camper experience. For more info, visit CRS4rec.com. That's CRS, the number four R E-C K dot com. CRS is tears about fun. For over a hundred years, summer camps have been an integral part of the AM Skyer world. Today, AM Skyre is a strategic partner for summer camps across the country, building personal relationships and providing valuable resources to their clients and friends. Every day, AM Skyre is proud to support camps and help make them safer. AM Skyer was founded by Abe Skyer in 1920 and is now in the third generation of Skyer family leadership. Henry, Jeffrey, Amy, and the experienced AM Skyer staff eat, sleep, and breathe summer camp, in addition to fostering partnerships with camps that last for decades. Give AM Skyer the opportunity to find solutions for your most challenging insurance needs. They go above and beyond. Trust me, I know. Learn more at aamskier.com.

SPEAKER_03

I did a I did a quick analysis in my research yesterday because I learned before I came on. I was like, just in New Jersey. This is just New Jersey, not the whole country. But uh, who's having the kids? What ethnicity? How to break down across ethnicity? Now, one of my camps, the one that I'm sitting in right now, is in central New Jersey. We have a huge Indian American population, about a million are in in central New Jersey. Lowest birth rate of any ethnicity in New Jersey. Yes. And then African Americans. Right. African Americans came next, Hispanics and Asians came next. And then, you know, white people were sitting on the top. And it was really fascinating because and then I then I just looked at birth rate by county overall, and it it it actually came out that way. Hunter in Somerset, Middlesex, lowest birth rates in the state. Uh and so it was

SPEAKER_05

That's known as the wealth belt.

SPEAKER_03

Well, yeah, well, actually, you know, now Morris Bergen is still up there. You know, so I was just taking a look at at just breaking it down. I was like, wow, this guy was right. What was you know, I was all all from that podcast, all from listening to your podcast. So I just wanted to do that research.

SPEAKER_02

I'm so glad that you did contextualized research, Jonathan, because that's so important for all of our directors to do, because this is not an even demographic shift that's happening across the country. And so in the Northeast, Pacific Northwest, West Coast, these declines are happening to a greater extent than in other places of the country. And so there are some places that are still growing population-wise. And so those camps will not be as if affected, you know. So if you're in, you know, central Texas, you know, you're going to be affected differently than those camps that are in central and northern and southern New Jersey, you know, or upstate New York or Connecticut. So it's it's something to really look at. What are the demographics of your area? And one of the things that, again, this demographer that I talked with, you know, what was was talking about, he said, you know, I say, okay, what do camps do then? You know, what's what's your advice? And and what he said was find a population that can keep you alive and cater to them. A population that can keep you alive and cater to them. You know, it might mean that we need to shift some of our models and some of our understandings of of whom we serve. And that might be a demographic shift for some of us. It might be an understanding that the people that we need to serve and that need camp right now can't afford $600 a week. And so is there a way that we can offer a lower price point? Is there a way that we can get donations and offer you know more scholarships to folks so that it becomes more of a tradition?

SPEAKER_03

If I could jump in, Andy, please. I think that that and I and this is this is what I was sort of talking about at Coda was we've we've put ourselves in a cost structure that only only lends itself to the affluent. I mean, the the you know, we've we've competed with each other on facility, we've you know, camps are have huge multiples on sales now in terms of what they're worth. So if you're gonna buy a camp, you're gonna have a huge mortgage payment. So, you know, it's it's now we're we're locked in. You know, we're locked into this cost structure because we've made all these capital improvements, we've built wonderful buildings, and you you name whatever.

SPEAKER_05

Well, and in New Jersey it's $16 an hour for minimum wage.

SPEAKER_03

And and right, and and our labor costs, and that's that's a trend that's going all the way around. I mean, it's in Massachusetts, the same thing, Connecticut, you know, yeah, yeah. So it's it's we're locked into these big cost structures, and that's the part that scares me. It's like, okay, you know, it's great to say find a population that can help you survive and find a way to get off, but we're locked into these cost structures that don't lend itself to that.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, but at the same time, Jake's mentioning you know, diversifying doesn't necessarily mean your cost structure. Also, you could you have this big Indian population. We know they all want to send their kids to college, right, and have them be successful. Maybe you start an enrichment program, you know, as part of your offshoot. And next thing you know, you have 300 kids in that enrichment program.

unknown

Yeah.

SPEAKER_06

The the listeners that have camps like mine, we have we have two advantages. One is that we're $200 a week. So we're more accessible to more people. And two, especially I'm in the Chicagoland area, I'm in the middle of a ton of towns, and I'm drawing more and more from other towns as well as my own because you cross one street and you're in the next town. So you have a bigger pool to draw from. So if you're in rural Midwest, you're gonna have a harder time. And then it comes down to making sure that you've you've done something your competition hasn't done. I have direct competition in my town. And so I need to make sure that I'm more attractive than the kids going. Right. And historically, one thing I wanted to say is the biggest drop I had was right after 9-11 2001. People didn't want their kids out of their site, and aunts and uncles start working from home and taking the kids. And so that was the first big drop we saw. And then of course, with COVID, we were serving essential workers. The other thing park districts have, or some wives have, is if there were before and after school programs that are feeding camp, it's the same kids. And so that helps as well for those kind of programs.

SPEAKER_05

But yeah, you have a distinct advantage, Sam. There's no doubt about it.

SPEAKER_02

And different different groups are going to have different advantages and different disadvantages. And and taking advantage of those things is really important. And so, you know, one of the things that you said, and I I think is really important too, is you know, what's what are you what what's your capacity right now, what's your enrollment right now? I think the the camps that are doing really well right now and have a waiting list are still going to be doing well in spite of this drop. You know, an eight or ten percent drop is gonna be on their waiting list, right? But the camps that are not full and are struggling to fill spaces or bunks, you know, depending on their their their camp type, there's going to be a lot of pressure. And we know what's coming. That's the thing. Like we know how many kids have been born over the last 10 years. Yes. So we can see that there's not going to be a bit a big upturn again. Once we hit the edge of this demographic cliff, we're going to keep seeing declines. We have yet to see the birth rate rebound from what we saw in the 2020 2020 levels.

SPEAKER_05

It it might be a long time. Again, societal change.

SPEAKER_03

At least the next 10 years. And and I'm gonna, I'm gonna I hate to pile on, but I'm gonna my my anecdotal experience is is that there are just way more options. And now with par a married couple may have one parent working at home one or two days, the other parent working at home one or two days, and now they don't need that five-day a week day cam from nine to four anymore because they're they're hybrid working. And in addition to that, there's like a tremendous, at least this is I'm speaking just for New Jersey, but I think it's probably ubiquitous across the country. You know, you want to get your kid into a varsity sport. Well, you better start them in a in a you know soccer camp or lacrosse camp and do that three, four days a week, you know, for however many weeks in the summer. So they can, you know, they can start varsity as a sophomore or a freshman, and and there's a lot of pressure for that. And I see that all over in Morris County.

SPEAKER_02

That is definitely a pressure right now. There's there's so many options. So many options. And so one of the things that that we have to do and do well is to make the case for camp. You know, why is camp so important? We and this is this is about being mission-driven, right? We bel we've got into this industry, hopefully, because we believe in it, not because we wanted to you know make money or something like that, but be we believe in this industry, and we believe that camp can have a positive impact on the young people that attend, on their families, on our communities, and we can lean into some of these things because as some of as as things are changing, as society is changing, as people are getting less kind to one another, we need camp more. As people are getting more addicted to their devices and more reliant on things like now we've got AI happening everywhere, right? More reliant on some of those things, having a week where they're tech free becomes more important as we get farther and farther away from nature. Having a week where they're embedded in nature and learning about that becomes more and more important. And so some of these things that we do so well at camp are the things, the exact things that young people in our society need right now. And so leaning into those things and making the case for those things, I think, can be really, really important. And parents understand this, right? Parents are getting a lot of pressure from every every direction. You know, they're they're being told they're not doing it right, they're not doing good enough, they gotta, they gotta be doing something else better. Being able to really come alongside them and support them and say, we have a lot of these things that your young person, your young person needs, and we can come alongside you as your partner and and really help you as a parent succeed and help your family succeed.

SPEAKER_05

That's so true. And we've been singing this song coming out of the pandemic, big time. And in my eyes, this is what has been keeping us going is that, and parents are smart enough to see that. I am just getting more and more parents that are actually saying exactly what you said, Jake, is I'd like to send my kid for a week to be outside. And a lot of camps are or you know, talking about Jonathan with the or historic cost structure. We're expecting kids to come for multiple weeks. I I was on a phone call with my friends from Wake, the California camps, and they were it was pretty, it was a pretty rough phone call recently about enrollment. And a lot of those camps are 150 kid camps. And when they're struggling, that's a big difference than like Jonathan from my camp, where we have hundreds of kids. If you lop off a couple hundred, you could still make it work, you just sort of downscale your expenses. So yeah, I worry about in the next decade about those smaller camps that are very high priced.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, for any of us, I mean, if we if we think about it as a straight, you know, percentage and we say, okay, 10%, what does it look like to have a 10% drop in enrollment? You know, and to not be able to recover from that. You know, what what does that look like? And that's that's gonna be across our industry. Because there are fewer kids, there are numerically fewer kids, it's not gonna affect every camp the same way, but industry-wide, it is going to affect camps, and there are gonna be camp closures. And so we're where we can we can see historical echoes of this because some of us remember the 1980s and early 1990s, right? And this was after the the big demographic trough of Generation X after the baby boom was done. We had these birth these these birth years where it was historically low, and there were you know, yeah, they were closing schools. It was a it was a it was a 20% drop from the the height of the baby boom sort of thing, and those were the kids that became camper age and school age in the mid-80s and early 90s, and that's where a lot of the camps closed. A lot of the camps in the in the northeast in particular ended up closing during that time or being sold. Yeah, no, there were a few that's hitting us again a few of these thinning of the herd moments, right?

SPEAKER_05

We talked about the recession in 2007, 2008, right? And then we saw it again with the pandemic, and and this is what I'm leaning towards now with in the upcoming years, is that mediocre, and and this is Jonathan and I used to talk about this through the pandemic and the recession. We said, it's rough if you're mediocre, you know, like you're gonna have to be great, like you're gonna have to provide an undeniable experience for the kids. It can't just be, oh, you're gonna be outside playing in nature, it's gonna be all make friends because of photosynthesis. You know, like you're gonna have to make a real fun experience for these kids and have them come home and be like, You're not gonna believe what we did today. Like, I think that's on us, and that doesn't take tons of money to make happen. It takes a lot of creativity and hard work to make it happen and finding the right.

SPEAKER_03

Great stuff, yeah. And I'll add on, I'll add on to your to your to that again. So when you were talking about how the the actual ethnic makeup of camp is changing, that's an important cultural piece, a really important cultural piece. I find that with some of my non-white campers, the families, I mean, the kids are sobbing, crying on the last day of camp. They had the best experience, and the parents are sort of, okay, well, you did this experience. Now we have to move you to another experience. And it's it's not and I did, I did, I actually took a look at the data that I that was sitting right in front of me about the longevity of campers. And I don't I don't have an ethnicity thing, but I can look at the last names and and in my database. And yeah, they they're they're staying for shorter amounts of time because okay, you did this, now there's some other experience that's gonna enhance you and whatever else. So it's a it's different, it's just a different view on summer and summer camp and summer experience.

SPEAKER_05

So yeah, but but besides that, besides the the fact that they come from these different cultural backgrounds, I think even just regular white people who want to send their kids to camp, it's money, you know. And we would say that 90% of the phone calls and emails I've gotten in the last two years are people that want to send their kids for the least amount of time because of the least amount of cost.

unknown

Correct.

SPEAKER_05

That's what I'm sensing.

SPEAKER_02

There's a lot of pressure, a lot of pressure on families, you know, and and this, you know, now the costs have not gone down either for camps or for the people that are trying to send their kids to camps. And that's put pressure on on both because we try to we try to keep costs low and that means that expenses pile up for us in the camping industry, especially with things like food, obviously, and insurance. You know, those have gone up so so much in the last five to ten years. We try not to pass all that on to our to our parents, but we have to pass some of it on, and so we have to raise prices, and parents are struggling too. And so how do we how do we figure this out? And is there funding? Are there funding possibilities, especially for our nonprofit camps, funding possibilities because there's people out there, there's so much wealth out there right now, and and people want to have it go to a good place, and there's people that believe in the power of something like camp. And so with the amount of generational wealth tied up in, especially the baby boomers, being able to make the case to them that can really help some of those families, Andy, that you were talking about make camp possible for the for those kids.

unknown

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

Or a campaign for the grandparents.

SPEAKER_06

I can speak to some of the funding through the state or through national funding. The problem with that is, you know, it's we don't know if it's gonna stay and for how long. But I have more and more state aid children coming to my camp. It's you know going up almost doubling every year, how many kids are on it. And then also our Department of Children and Family Services does some as well. So those kind of programs are out there right now, but they may not be for very long.

SPEAKER_05

Well, I think childcare is so expensive these days, and everybody is keenly aware of that. And and the government is being forced, their hand is being forced to help this. And we have to figure out better how to get camps to be included in that. Um, dealing right now with a situation in New Jersey where there it's every single county in New Jersey gets this federal funding for to help support families in need to for for child care. But the red tape and and stuff that they put on camps is too much because they're they built this thing for childcare centers with year-round employees and a small amount and all this kind of stuff. But that is something in September I'm gonna try to tackle.

SPEAKER_06

It's also based on your building, which a lot of us aren't in a building. You know, we're in outdoor spaces and they it's apples to oranges, and then the red tape is very difficult with that. So yeah, they don't understand camp.

SPEAKER_05

It's gonna take it's gonna take people like us to focus on it and and push people in the direction because I think what Jake was saying about the optimism of you know, with the AI evil robots, you know, coming and all that stuff. Again, people are keenly aware of this and they do want their kids AI proof. And we have to, we will start being very fluent in the language of how to explain that to our families. And and they already know it's already in the back of their head. We're just sort of, you know, we're sort of prodding them with our product. I mean, you know, it's my whole life I've been like kids do camp more today than ever before, right? But right now, with the way AI's taking off, these kids are not gonna have jobs unless they're really good at the skills that they learn to camp.

SPEAKER_00

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SPEAKER_03

Well, well, that's again, I hate to pile on, but if there's any kind of downstream effect to AI in the short term, that's just gonna exacerbate this problem seriously, right? If you, if, if the software engineers and the and the paralegal and the people who are whose jobs are being replaced by AI can't afford to send their kids to camp. And they're part of our cohort, which they are, right? Now it's gonna be it's not just gonna and and then you have to look at, and this is the part that don't you want can I go into the part that really scares me, Annie, or should I not?

SPEAKER_05

No, go for it, we go for it. So always edit it out. We could always end it out.

SPEAKER_03

So the part that scares me is is what I was talking about a little bit in Coda, is that again, going downstream with AI, if that happens in a good and a decent, even 5%, just say even not even change, but a five percent change in the labor force, what does that mean to the tax revenue of the government? And then what does that mean for our ability to cover our debt, which is $40 trillion? So I just think there's there's a there's a tipping point that's gonna happen that's gonna cause a chain that could cause, not going to, but could cause a chain of events. So I always say to camp owners and camp directors, you know, and and by the way, this is not an original thought. Jay Jacobs taught me this. Have a disaster scenario ready. Have a disaster plan for when you lose 10 or 15% of your enrollment and figure out how you can survive on those lower numbers. That's really important. And that's that's you know, I mean, a financial disaster plan, not just a marketing plan and everything else. Like understand what what your business would look like at a lower, a lower level of income.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, I agree because Jake is talking about 10% less kids. What you're talking about is going to expound that much more, right? If if AI is replacing all these people's jobs, you know, and and they're not even gonna have the money. So that's what I'm saying about societal change on top of the demographic change that's happening.

SPEAKER_03

And and and where do we see it right now, right this minute, the second? Fewer internships, more kids looking for work, great labor pool for camp. You know, like and you know, where it's not like, oh, I have this in it. I mean, there it's really hard. So the kids are coming out of college now, we're in their junior years of college. And yeah, Jake, I'd I'd love to hear your your thoughts on that, but I'm seeing it, we're seeing it now.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, it's I mean, that's that's that's a challenge for for people in the in the in all the working environments, but also, I mean, especially those that are just coming out of college, right? Trying to trying to figure out where am I gonna work. I've got a I've got a junior in college right now. My oldest son is a junior in college and looking for an internship right now because internships they don't even let them start applying until the middle of April for these kids. So he doesn't know where he's going to be living in two weeks because of this, because he's just interviewing now for some of these. And some of his friends get internships. Well, well, that's the thing, is like some people will get them and some won't. And then the rest of them have to figure it out. But so it's a short-term win for camp in the sense that okay, there's more people that are willing to work at camp, but that's a very short-term, short-term thing. Let's let's be excited about that and get some great staff members and have some great summers because that's help that helps us build legacy at our camps, and we know the the value of that. And so the the reality is that the camps that are doing well, the camps that have strong leadership, the camps that are mission-focused, mission-driven, that are telling their story well, that have things, and they're they're really strong, they're going to stay strong. And the camps that are in leadership transitions, that are struggling with some things, they're going to be affected more than the others. That is the reality of what's what's going to be upon us when we have a demographic shift like this. Because there still will be kids going to camp. I mean, we can still make the case that that camp is incredibly important for young people's social, emotional, spiritual development, but not all the camps are going to be making that case as as strong as I saw.

SPEAKER_05

And I don't want camp to become even more of a luxury item than it's already considered.

SPEAKER_02

That is my fear. You know, I mean, even talking with you guys and hearing about some of the, you know, some of the challenges in the Northeast, you know, and the the the sheer price point that you're talking about, that's a a large barrier, you know, to to families and these young kids that probably need camp more than others, right? So if the families that are able to afford it are the ones that are able to afford every one of these experiences, you know, so they can they're they get to pick and choose, they have that luxury. And there's other families that can choose one thing for their kid. Are they gonna choose camp?

SPEAKER_05

No, they're gonna choose sneakers and food. You know who I wish we had on this podcast? Somebody from Disney, you know, about the Disney theme parks. Because I'm sure they already have a flag.

SPEAKER_02

Well, because they they know the same things, right? Yeah, they know these demographic shifts are are are upon us, and they're already seeing some of the some of the challenges.

SPEAKER_05

Disney ain't getting cheaper.

SPEAKER_02

Disney is not getting cheaper. No, that does not happen.

SPEAKER_05

All right, so yeah, this is gonna cut across everything. You know, and then 20 years later it'll cut across the country, et cetera, and then et cetera, et cetera. Well, that's the real key stapping clip in 10 years from now.

SPEAKER_02

That's the real key is looking at okay, what's the population? Population that we can serve right now? What's the population that can help keep us alive? Is what I said. You know, so as we think about this cohort that's retiring right now and is retired and has a ton of disposable income and has been invested in the stock market, which has been going crazy in spite of all the craziness in the world, these are folks that care about camp, care about what we have to offer, and are willing to shell out some money so that kids can go and to help keep our camps alive. And so that's something to really think about as we think about okay, what's a what's a population that we can cater to? We are camps, we primarily serve young people, and we can also you know welcome older folks on onto the property as well to to have fellowship, to hear about some of the amazing things that we're doing, and to have the opportunity to support what we're doing and the kids in their community.

SPEAKER_05

Grandparent camp, John though. We'll have grandparent camp week. They'll be retired, they'll have tons of money.

SPEAKER_02

I love grandparent camp. When I was a program director, that was one of my favorite, that was one of my favorite camp programs was grandparent grandchild camp. It was uh it was magical to see to see that. It was it was difficult to program for because you could I remember trying to do a we we we did like a big camp wide scavenger hunt. This is a big camp, it was 600 acres, right? And these poor grandparents were just trying to keep up with these kids that were just zoom, zoom, zooming around.

SPEAKER_05

But um, it was managed now, Jake, because we've got pickleball now.

SPEAKER_02

That'll be pickleball. That's right.

SPEAKER_05

Right, great energetic.

SPEAKER_06

We're in better shape than grandparents of the past.

SPEAKER_03

Yes, we are.

SPEAKER_06

Yes, we are, yes, mentally and physically we are trying to keep it all together.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, but along the lines of what you're saying, Jake, I think most day camps are very focused on the younger kids, and I think that for the short-term future right now, you better have a good program for middle school kids because those kids, they're your last like like we know we're gonna have less younger kids, and we're gonna have like we're a lopsider right now. We have more older kids. And and we looked at our program and said, wow, you know what? We really haven't been giving them an amazing program because we've been so focused on the little kids. And but now, generally speaking, you can say sleepway camp's even more expensive than day camp. So maybe there'll be less kids going to sleep away camp and they'll want to stay with us if we can provide them an awesome program. So that is one of our big focuses this year is to make our older kid program at day camp feel like a sleepaway camp and really that's a good idea.

SPEAKER_06

My team camp blew up this year. I've got 11 to 14 year olds at team camp, and they went from like 80 last year to 150 this year. So I don't know.

SPEAKER_02

It hasn't hit that age cohort yet. Right. The other thing to your point, Andy, I think that's really important is that this this this shoulder group for you, you know, you think you're kind of your shoulder groups, and that would be your your kind of middle schoolers for day camps. Those kids, this cohort of middle schoolers is less likely to want to go away for a whole week and sleep away at a camp. It's more challenging for them. Some of them haven't been away from home at all. That's becoming more and more common, and especially with these kids right now, as we think about when did COVID happen? When these kids who are now in middle school were just entering kindergarten elementary school, they didn't have all those same experiences. They're they're they have more challenges socially. So daycamp might be a great option for them to really improve their social skills, to get out and away a little more without having the added burden of staying overnight. So I think that's a that's an awesome opportunity for day camps.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, you just have to you have to be willing to uh to change your model. Like like Jonathan was saying, you know, the structure that people have, they're so they're so stuck in it in many ways, right? You know, just camps that have been doing this for close to 100 years, almost the same way. And and and you know what?

SPEAKER_03

Tradition at times can be a curse. It can really be a curse. We are such a traditional but tradition-based industry. And if you don't force yourself to think out of the box, those traditions can creep into your business practice. Yeah and and you know, the things of camp you don't want to change, obviously, that are part of your core traditions, but and they're wonderful, but it's also a curse.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah. I think the traditional camp program might go the way of the dodo bird because a lot of people went to those camps. I mean, Jake's story is a very familiar story. He got forced to go to camp, right? You ended up just having a good time. But I think that kids are not as embracing anymore. Kids are weirder, kids are coming out of COVID, all that kind of stuff. You know, I every other family I get parents telling me about our kids' anxiety. Every other family. And and uh the my camp program is an elective-based program where the kids actually get to pick what they want to do. And that cuts across way better to families who have never done this before, who worry about their kids' anxiety, and also culturally never went to camp before. It seems like, okay, well, well, it's a decent chunk of change, but my kid will get to do this and this, as opposed to, oh no, this is what 10-year-old boys do, you know, which is the traditional model.

SPEAKER_06

And if you're gonna do a good team camp, they need those choices. They need a couple nasty couches and some good field trips and being able to make some of their own choices about what their activities are, otherwise they're not gonna come or they're not gonna stay.

SPEAKER_05

You know, yeah, yeah, yeah. Choices is is a big thing. But just get them through the door is the bigger thing. That initial get them through the door thing. Because we have we need a we need in a way, you could say we need a a bigger percentage of kids going to camps if there's gonna be less kids. So you have to come at them with open arms and a red carpet, as opposed to like, no, this is what we've done for 50 years and it's earned for 50 years, you know, and uh and I hear a lot of that kind of thing.

SPEAKER_02

Well, and parents more and more expect that more personal approach, and so it it it oftentimes means going out of our way to have an individual conversation with a with a potential camper parent, you know, and assuaging their fears in that way. Oh, wait, blanket email, blanket marketing's not gonna work.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, they're in my CRM, they just get 11 emails from me, and then they clip that's not no, uh you know, you're 100% right, man. Personal touch is gonna be really important, yeah.

SPEAKER_02

The thing is, this is this is this is what's crazy. It it always has been. Yeah, this has always been something that camp does really, really well. Yeah, and I think in some ways we've gotten lazy as things have gotten easier to you know to automate things, but the personal touch of camp is still exactly what the world needs, exactly what this demographic of kid needs. You know, kids there's differences in society and there's different challenges that they're facing. There's more anxiety, all of those things, and developmentally, these kids still need the same things, and they still want the same things. They still need time outside, they still need time being active, they still need time with friends and and face-to-face communication, they still need some caring adults to they need to know that they care about them and love them. All these things that camp does so well, kids still need these things, yeah.

SPEAKER_05

And their and the relationship with the parents, I think the face-to-face thing is important, like you said, Jake. And yes, it's hard to get people on the phone these days, you know. Everybody's in texting mode and all that stuff, and you know, they're not picking up an unknown number necessarily and all that kind of thing, but getting them to your place. And I hear a lot of pushback from camps, they're like, Oh, well, we rent our facility, we're not always there, it's not that great in the winter and all that kind of stuff. Who cares? Get them to meet your people somewhere near where your site is, whatever, make it happen. Because again, like all these just emails, and everybody thinks everything's AI anyway, and it's so impersonal, you know. That has been a struggle with us during the summer because my middle management people were all teachers, and now they don't know how to talk on their own parents, they just know how to email people because that's all they do. They just they're they're emailers to be professionally emailed. And yeah, so I I think that again, this is this is one of those things that we need to keep is that personal touch in our aspect. And to me, it starts with when you meet these families, you know. Can't just be sight on scene, you know, fancy email, really, really nice pictures and videos on TikTok. No, you know, they gotta meet you, they gotta invite you.

SPEAKER_02

That's not gonna close the deal for sure, because every camp out there has those pictures and has a good social media presence. Every every every other amazing opportunity that these kids might have has that same thing too. What we have is something very personal, you know.

SPEAKER_03

And you know, Andy and I were both at the COTA conference a little while ago. And uh my colours sure.

SPEAKER_05

Look, if you can see my colors.

SPEAKER_03

Beautiful. One of the one of the presentation one of the presenters who would had a story about writing personal notes to people handwritten with a stamp and an envelope. I took her at her word this year. I had some interesting responses. I've done a lot of, I've probably, I don't know how many personal notes I've written at this point. It's probably somewhere near 100. But I decided when our refund deadline came around and somebody requested a refund, I would of course send them a check and I would write a handwritten note. You know, hey, I hope everything's okay. Let us know if there's any way we can help. And we hope to see you at some point in the future. Put it in the card and send it off. And not just like a piece of paper, but like a nice sort of like just personal note card. It's been, it's been good. I I gotta tell you, it's been good. And now I think we're late. I I was in code late, but I'll probably do that now for any new family that enrolls. Little personal note. Hey, how you doing? And handwritten, not not email, not a welcome email, and and the impact of getting an envelope with a stamp, with a personal note, and no matter how bad your handwriting is, cannot be underestimated.

SPEAKER_05

Especially when you don't get any mail anymore. Yeah, right. You don't hardly get any mail. I got 200 email today, but I got no actual sale mail.

SPEAKER_03

Right. So so what what's gonna stand out? Little little stuff like that.

SPEAKER_06

Absolutely. It's a novelty now.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, that's right. Yeah, I literally I I did it to some friends. It's like, you wrote me, you mean a card? Like to people I hadn't talked to in I don't know how many years. I was like, You want me you wrote me a card? And somebody died? Right, right. Well, well, that's just that's just happened. You got a card. That's that's the point, right?

SPEAKER_02

You have to go out of your way to do something like that, and people realize that it's that that's what you're doing. You you could have just sent an email and it could have been an automated thing, but you didn't. You you wrote a note and it's handwritten, like you actually did this, you know. So there's something very personal about that and meaningful, and saying that wow, Jonathan actually he took the time to do this, and I that's something that I can appreciate.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, I just I wonder if we talk to somebody that's 34 years old, how they how the note affects them because it's so out of their wheelhouse. I couldn't answer the note recipients. All right, well, we have to wrap things up. Jake, you are a treasurer for the camp industry. We got to get you to Tri-State, Dakota, AC In National. People people need to hear more about you. And I and I did go to your your website, your Sacred Playgrounds website. And wow, it's it's awesome. You guys do really great stuff.

SPEAKER_02

Well, thanks. I appreciate your guys' work too. I appreciate uh being invited on the podcast, and yeah, we podcast too, Sacred Playgrounds Podcast.

SPEAKER_05

So oh, yeah, that's right. Sacred Playgrounds Podcast. Check it out.

SPEAKER_03

And I I I think this was a really probably one of the best podcasts I've ever been a part of. And and I think that you did a great job getting in. I just I wish it wasn't May because I'm afraid that people are but you should re-release it. You should re-release it in the fall.

SPEAKER_05

I agree. That's true. Yeah, good good idea.

SPEAKER_02

People are people are in panic mode for sure. And doing an episode about issue to panic on is probably not the best thing in panic mode.

SPEAKER_05

Lots over this is my framing, though. Yeah, I don't know how many people can see the end of this podcast, but I'm putting this up front. My framing of this is you gotta have an awesome summer this year. Yeah, you gotta put the pedal to the metal and have an awesome summer and work your butt off and do all the small things to make people really appreciate what you do at your camp. You know, no shoulda, coulda. Just do it this summer, you know, really inspire your staff because it starts now. Because just like Jake said, we're at the we're at the we just you know, it's not gonna get any better for a while. So, you know, we we gotta start it now. Like, like stop screwing around with your mid-camp and and make it great. That's that's my point in this.

SPEAKER_02

Oh yeah. Thing is, we're we're used to cliffs at camp. We're used to cliff jumping, we're used to uh repelling, we're used to climbing, we're used to all these different things.

SPEAKER_05

You're talking to three camps that you're talking to three camps, right? Thank camp operators here that opened in 2020, right? The cliff jumpers.

SPEAKER_02

We're the cliff jumpers. I love it. And so the the key is make sure you're prepared, right? Yeah. When you reach the edge of the cliff. And Andy, I I think that's a perfect advice for everybody. Yeah, have an awesome summer, and that prepares you for the summers to come.

SPEAKER_05

That's all we can really do. And you know, at the moment, yeah, that's all we can do.

SPEAKER_03

And and you know, so so for me, a little a little personal goal for this summer, this is right in line with exactly what you're talking about. As crazy as we are as directors, as difficult as the summer may be, how hard is it to write a personal note to say 10 of your staff and 10 of your parents about hey, I just wanted to let you know I saw Andy, he he jumped off a cliff today, he did a great job. And you know, like those little things are gonna are gonna reap some benefits.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, or do the Highway Grossinger thing and make those the videos he makes. He says to you to everybody. Yeah, same thing. Yep, that's that's great. All right. Well, anyway, I want to thank the GoCamp Pro team, Travis and Matt, and our editor, Rachel. I want to thank AM Skyer, Camp Minder, and Camptivities, a commercial recreation specialist, for allowing us to bring this podcast to you. Check out our show notes from this and other episodes at DaycampPodcast.com, as well as Comtact Info for the amazing Jake Swordson and Sacred Playgrounds, and for Jonathan Gold and myself and Sam. Thanks for listening and making yourself a better Daycamp Pro. We'll be back in a couple of weeks with another episode of the Daycamp.

SPEAKER_01

The Daycamp Podcast is brought to you by GoCamp Pro and the GoCamp Pro Podcast Network. Find a podcast for camp professionals of every age and stage at gocamp.pro slash podcast. Thanks for listening, friends. Hey Camp Ros, we love that our industry is built on sharing. In order to foster that spirit, we hope that whenever you share an idea that you learn from the Camp Hacker Podcast, conference, summer camp professionals group, or wherever else, that you're quick to give credit where credit is due. That way, we can all encourage more camp pros to share the tips and tricks that will make camp better.