The PROPERTY DOCTORS, Sydney Australia Novak Properties
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The PROPERTY DOCTORS, Sydney Australia Novak Properties
NOVAK NEWS - WHY SELL NOW? WINTER AND THE 2025 FEDERAL ELECTION LOOM | TONIGHT 8PM FACEBOOK LIVE
Timing the property market remains one of the most common questions we receive from Northern Beaches homeowners, particularly as we approach both a federal election and the winter months. What we're witnessing right now challenges conventional wisdom about when to sell.
The numbers tell a compelling story: stock levels across the Northern Beaches have dropped dramatically to just 725 properties – remarkably low for an area with over 105,000 homes. This scarcity is driving strong buyer competition and significantly reducing days on market. One-bedroom apartments in Dee Why are now fetching $850,000, while two-bedrooms are reaching $1.2 million – figures that would have seemed unthinkable not long ago.
Despite common beliefs, seasons have virtually nothing to do with property sales outcomes. The weather doesn't determine buyer behaviour; supply and demand do. Selling during periods of lower stock – like winter – can actually work to your advantage as your property stands out more prominently to motivated buyers. Similarly, election uncertainty has minimal impact on long-term property values, with most market sentiment already "priced in" before results are announced.
For investors, current conditions present what we call "the perfect storm" – interest rates are expected to decline while rental returns continue strengthening. With rental vacancies at historic lows (we're managing over 2,000 properties but have only 13 available rentals), landlords are achieving premium returns. This rental pressure isn't likely to ease soon.
The fundamental truth remains unchanged: Northern Beaches property has historically doubled in value every decade. Rather than waiting for mythical "perfect conditions," successful property sellers recognise that timing is about relative advantage – and selling when competition is low gives you that edge.
Ready to explore your options? Our zero-dollar marketing strategy allows you to test the market without upfront costs. Connect with us today to discover what's possible in this dynamic market environment.
Why would you sell your property now? With the election coming up this Saturday and winter is looming, we're going to talk to you guys about when is the best time to get your property on the market.
Speaker 2:The question on everyone's lips, liberal or Labor, who's going to win, and how does it matter with real estate agents?
Speaker 1:Yeah, Well, it does. It does matter, doesn't it? You know, elections coming up, obviously this Saturday. We've been hearing lots and lots about it and, no matter who you're batting for, there is, you know, a lot of conversations being had at the moment, mark, with sellers, you know, and they're like, oh, we might just wait until after the election, but then we've got winter coming up. I think it's important to note that the seasons actually don't have anything at all to do with the property market. Um, a lot of that just goes on inside people's minds. Um, you know, we've seen some, some phenomenal sales that have taken place throughout the winter period and, funnily enough, the, the weather that takes place in sydney during winter often is better than in summer, when it can be quite stormy and windy.
Speaker 2:Um, but the, the weather and the temperature um actually has nothing at all to do with the property market I think you people selling you sort of sometimes look for excuses and you're like that's a good excuse, won't do it because of the elections or whatever. But yeah, with interest rates, elections, all that stuff, sentiment gets pre-built in and I think people work in their backstops of what's going to happen with liberal, what's going to happen with labor. So I think a lot of that sentiment's already pre-programmed. So when there is a result, it's happening on saturday.
Speaker 1:Well we're, we've all got to vote on Saturday. We'll find out Saturday night.
Speaker 2:So you know what happens on Sunday, monday, tuesday. The month's weeks years ahead is a lot of that's already pre-programmed into already, so it's not like a big woe of a shock.
Speaker 1:But look, the reality is there's always something going on. Right, there is always something. You know we had all the interest rate hikes that were taking place, um, so you know a lot of people saying, well, that's not a great time to be selling. Um, then you know, we've had wars, we've had pandemics, and when we talk about this sort of stuff often, uh, trump and everything that's been going on in america and, um, you know the stock market and you know, if you're waiting for all the stars to align, like good, seriously, because if it's not an election and it's not winter incoming, there is always something going on. But you know, what we're always watching as real estate agents are the stock levels. You'll hear us talking about that a lot.
Speaker 2:Days on market.
Speaker 1:Days on market and stock levels. So we track that kind of data and when we look at that and I know, mark, you were saying this morning when we were doing the, what's the property market doing in 15 seconds? Yes, and we couldn't talk about stock levels today. But the reality is, mark said, don't talk about the stock levels, boys. Um, but the reality is is that if you go on to you know realestatecom or domain and you actually tap in northern beaches and have a look at what those stock levels across the northern beaches look like they're actually they've dropped a lot. I think I checked um a short while ago and they were sitting as in today and and they were sitting at about 725 properties.
Speaker 2:Now that that's low, that's low that's like 10, 5 000, 105 000 properties.
Speaker 1:Northern beaches that's low it's low and and not only that, the days on market. So um, over the last couple of weeks I've found a lot of stock has been moving, and some of that stock didn't move quickly, but it moved suddenly, and by that I mean it was stock that had been sitting around on the market for a considerable amount of time and then one buyer walked in and boom, it was sold that afternoon. What I'm finding as well is the days on market for apartments. They're flying out the door. Flying out the door. I sold a property late last week it hadn't hit the portals, which we'll talk about in a moment and that sold within 48 hours, quickly for phenomenal money. So when's a good time to get your property on the market? If you've got an election around the corner in winter, what do you reckon Now?
Speaker 2:Because it does take. It's not like it takes. There's preparation as well, so by the time you're on, the election's going to be over.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And I think, ideally, with what the result's going to be like. You know these, you know whether it's Liberal or whether it's Labor. I think there's guys, there's so much momentum in there that they just no one's going to reckon.
Speaker 1:So I chat GPT'd this, so I put into chat GPT when there's an election incoming, historically when has been the best time to sell? And this is what chat GPT said If you want maximum buyer, competition and best price, historically it's better to sell either before election campaigns begin or just after the election, once certainty returns. Here we go, unless you're in a booming market with very low stock. What market.
Speaker 2:Are we in, you reckon?
Speaker 1:Oh, I'd say we're. I would say if those stock levels don't come up and I'm not confident that they're going to I don't think we're going to see a significant increase. We're seeing huge amounts of buyers now starting to come through properties. We got smashed again today. I'd say we're actually turning now from a buyer's market into a seller's market. What do you think?
Speaker 2:well, with a seller's market comes good capital growth, which is interesting we're right for capital growth? Absolutely. I've been saying this for 12 months. I track the rolling average of 10 years in our suburbs. What I mean by that is if it doubles, that's 100%. If it's 120%, it's done doubling a bit more. If it's 80%, it hasn't doubled in 10 years. And I'm watching units they haven't doubled in 10 years. They should have, so they're sitting at about 80%. I'm looking at houses 've done 120 in 10 years.
Speaker 2:They've over performed yeah, yeah, yeah so I'm still saying I think it's terrific time to be buying strata units, um, and I think the market's just going to keep going. But look, as a seller, um, I think people have, you know if, sure, hold on a little bit more because there's going to be some capital growth for selling for strata units, because I don't think they've had, I know they haven't done the 10-year double.
Speaker 1:People are building. People are building. That's a big thing. We're not seeing big apartment blocks going up anywhere, nowhere, anywhere across Sydney. So you know, we've just been actually chatting with a client who is in that development sphere and was saying like there's just, you know, the cost of building is so expensive so that strata stuff, that strata mark I just today I just sold a one-bedroom apartment in dy for eight hundred and fifty thousand five hundred dollars. That's such a big which one it's huge, delmar, how much.
Speaker 1:Eight, fifty five hundred, wow, just sold this afternoon like that. You know that's for a one-bedroom apartment on my own people to write. It's crazy how much $850,500. Wow, just sold this afternoon.
Speaker 2:Wow, that's for a one-bedroom apartment, yeah, on Pitwater Road.
Speaker 1:It's crazy that it was facing Pitwater Road. Pitwater Road, that's exactly right. That's big money, massive, massive money. And here's the thing I mean these properties, you know, those apartments, when they're priced accordingly, even when they're not. You know, accordingly there, even when they're not. You know, I just sold a two-bedroom apartment last week that was one of my pre-markets and that was a two-bed, one bath.
Speaker 2:It had two car parking but that sold for 1.2 million. 1.2 million dollars. Remember the going jokes that one day one bedroom units will be a million dollars. We're here, we're here. We have arrived like are you serious? It's $1 million yeah, for one better we're there it's true.
Speaker 1:So, guys, if you're watching this and you're thinking I'm just gonna wait after the election, I'll get my property on the market, then we've got winter. Get your property on the market. The great thing and this is not like a, an advertising plug for what we do at Novak, but we put together a zero dollar marketing strategy for vendors that were sitting on the fence going. I just don't know. If I got the right price, I would probably sell now. Otherwise I'm going to hold off until spring, which, by the way, I think selling in spring is just ludicrous in many respects.
Speaker 1:They call it the spring selling season because all the stock hits the market in spring is just ludicrous in many respects. They call it the spring selling season because all the stock hits the market in spring and the last thing you want to be doing is selling when there's a whole lot of competition. You want to sell when you're in isolation, when there's not a lot of stock around. That's when you're going to get great money for your property. But the zero dollar marketing strategy allows you guys to get your property on the market. We don't ask you for any marketing money. We say give us nothing, we're going to get your property out to our database, which works have a go, just try it.
Speaker 2:Well, have a go. Um, choose your agent off you go. Choose novak, northern beaches. Have a go, that's it. Show any money and pay for the professional photos yeah, we know I like calling it price discovery. Yeah, because sometimes the catalyst to selling is actually, you know what, if I get that price I'll sell it. But then you talk to your agent. They go give me seven grand again, don't worry about it. But with the zero dollar marketing on the market, wow, that's a great offer. Oh well, that's the property.
Speaker 1:And and you know. But we actually put that strategy together because there was nothing out there in the marketplace. Um, you know, a lot of agents say, look, give me $10,000 in marketing, and nothing against vendor paid marketing, nothing against the real estate portals We'll use them all the time. But this is an opportunity for you if you're a seller and you're like you know what guys, if you've got a buyer and you can get me this price, then I'm a seller, so it gives you that opportunity. Signboard included professional signboard yeah. Professional photos included yeah, out to our social media, which, which is phenomenal, obviously there's a lot of eyeballs there and out to the database as well, database, actually.
Speaker 1:Hey, I just want to say something about an agent that I heard something the other day. Go, I had a client call me, she was getting a few appraisals and she called and she goes okay, just want to hear, like, what your thoughts are. The other agent that I've spoken to, she could have two better in DY. And the other agent said well, you need to spend $30,000 on renovating and $12,000 on marketing.
Speaker 2:What do you think about that $850,000. What do you think about it? What? Happened to the inner value $850,000. It's dumb, but people do. People do that. Like what People do that.
Speaker 1:Sorry, what. It's dumb, sorry. Okay, listen, it's not necessary, it's overkill. It's not necessary, guys, the only reason, the only reason you go and spend money on prepping your property for market is to make money. It's not to like. Just come out, cost neutral. Thirty thousand dollars to do a kitchen and a bathroom in an entry-level two-bedroom apartment in dy is ludicrous, as is twelve thousand dollars in marketing ludicrous, ludicrous yep, you know what?
Speaker 2:I've always been a fan when people zig you zag and I think that traditionally and I've said it in my career people are like bears they hibernate through the winter period and they get active in the summer period, literally. So I've always loved that. If you decide to sell in winter or you know, around an election, when you're really not sure shouldn't, don't know, um, I love actually getting their property in the market to sell because you know there's mouths there to feed pete. There's buyers, heaps of buyers. In the last weekend you saw what that was.
Speaker 1:Oh, my god, it's been. Hey, yeah, yeah, it's been, and it's like we're getting some really good price at the moment.
Speaker 2:So I think it's so, I think, in short, to answer. You know, would you be selling in winter and around a federal election? Absolutely, and the prices are good. But you know what the big thing is? It unlocks you to the next phase of what you want to do. The whole intention of selling that property is to unlock you to go and do something else, whatever that may be. Wherever you know, get rid of the debt, move on to.
Speaker 1:It unlocks you and you move on next we forgot about a really big factor interest rates beautiful okay.
Speaker 1:So, guys, a lot of people are saying again, a lot of sellers that I'm talking to, they're like we're just going to wait for those rates to come down, then we'll get our property on the market. I get it, but you know, a lot of that activity with the buyers is actually happening now. That activity is happening now where the buyers are going. Oh, we know those interest rates are coming down. We get how this is going to pan out. We are here, we're ready to buy now and they're paying the big money 1.2 million for a two-bedroom apartment in dy, 850, 500 for a one-bedroom apartment in DY. We were selling two-bedroom apartments for 850 not that long ago. It's happening now. The activity is happening right, right now.
Speaker 2:And also like I think you've got to remember people forget about this. Like in what world is interest rates going down? Good, no, I know Like, because people are like I can't wait till the rates going down. Good, no, I know like, because people are like I can't wait till the rates come down, and it's like yeah, hang on a sec, the reason the government reduces the rates is because the economy is shit. Yeah, so it's like I really I really hope the economy is shit so I can pay less interest rates. It's like now the economy is shit. You know, employment gets harder inflation, so it's careful, what you wish for it's the balancing act.
Speaker 1:It's the balancing act. It's the balancing act.
Speaker 2:And I think, if you, you know, say buyers are right, okay, rates going down will help them borrow money. Yeah, well, then they're going to pay more in six months' time, so buy now.
Speaker 1:Not only that, I think, um, I just want to quickly touch on that low to medium density stuff as well, because we ran a big information night on that. That was really successful. The community loved it about four weeks ago and, um, we've had heaps of people that have reached out to us going oh you know, we're, yeah, we're thinking of selling. You know where? We've got that perfect site. We've got, you know, an old house that's sitting on that block. But the reality is, you know a lot of those vendors. They're not going to sell for anything other than good money, yep, and then then you add on to that the cost of building and materials and funding and then you've got to make a profit. So I haven't seen that sort of stop flying out the door actually, have you?
Speaker 2:not at all. No, you know what it's been feb 28th when you could start lodging against it. Mid-feb is when I got introduced for april, march, like three months, and I haven't seen like oh, oh, my God, that's old, that's old, that's old, that's it. There hasn't been a flurry. So, guys, you know, you may all think you made a fortune or you could develop shit out of an area. Not really, not really.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I haven't seen it and I'm not confident that it's going to solve the housing crisis. No, I think that was the whole reason that the government was doing it was to solve this housing crisis. I'm not sure about that, and nor am I sure about stopping foreign buyers, like. I actually quickly read something early on about Harry Trigubov had written I love his stuff, but he just tells it how it is Bang. But he was writing something about yeah, like something a bit tongue-in-cheek, like well done government, that's definitely going to be the solution for the housing crisis. Like stopping the international buyers, I agree, I just think.
Speaker 2:But that's assuming the international buyers are not investors. You know what?
Speaker 1:There's still ground, by the way. There's plenty of them.
Speaker 2:I would have to say, if I'm going to be political, the landlord, the governments, whether Liberal or Labor, more Labor have just annihilated, assassinated landlords. For 20 years now, they've throttled them. They've throttled them. Why does that matter? They are the farmer. The landlord is the farmer. Yeah Right, they're supplying the crop for people to eat. They're supplying rental properties for people to eat. They're supplying rental properties for tenants to rent and they're wondering why there's no rental properties around. But they haven't. So you know.
Speaker 1:Rentals are hard. Like how many. We're managing over 2,000 properties. You know we manage a huge amount of property on the northern beaches.
Speaker 2:And at the moment.
Speaker 1:How many properties have we got for?
Speaker 2:rent 13.
Speaker 1:Usually we have about 45 guys. Yep, we have 13 properties and they come on and they get rented as quickly as what they're coming on like and the rental spread's incredible.
Speaker 2:So what's unbelievable rented for to what it does get rented for? On a typical one or two bedroom, you know, we can say 200 bucks and and I get it.
Speaker 1:If you're a tenant, I get it. I get that those rents have gone up. I get that it's tough. I get that it's hard trying to find something. We hear you, we understand, but it's been equally as hard, probably even harder, for that landlord. When you look at things mark like land tax and the interest rates and all the legislations that came in.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah it's, it's hard like we see it from both sides, probably shouldn't say this if your landlord don't sell, yeah getting some beautiful rents coming through beautiful. And if you're considering buying like buy a rental, but you already depends what you want to do when you sell that asset. You buy a rental property at the moment an investment property right, your rates are going to come down and your rent's going to go up. That's the perfect storm.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:So landlords should be jumping in. They really should be jumping in?
Speaker 1:Yeah, definitely. Well, that gap is closed. Now we are seeing a lot more investors back in the marketplace.
Speaker 2:You're not.
Speaker 1:We are definitely starting to see more investors back in the marketplace.
Speaker 2:You're laughing. We are definitely starting to see more investors back in the marketplace. It's the perfect storm and listen first-time buyers.
Speaker 1:you know, I think, if anything out of this whole election, first-time buyers are definitely going to be the winners. They really are. The only thing is that that entry-level price now for an apartment has jumped. It has jumped and it's gotten higher. Yeah, so, but I do think that the first-time buyers are going to be the winners, no matter who gets in from that election. There wasn't any comments.
Speaker 2:So maybe. So in summary, any comments, anyone, anybody, anybody, anybody, anyone Can't see. So in summary, would you sell now? Why sell now winter? Why sell now winter and the federal election? Why, what would you sell?
Speaker 1:now Stock level. It's just. This is a supply versus demand game. In summary, this is all this. It has nothing at all to do with the weather and it has nothing at all to do with the election. I get that. People, you know they feel more confident post an election depending on which government gets in. But the stock levels, the numbers do the talking. Stock levels low. Buying demand high good time to sell. The other way around, not a good time to sell. That's it. It's that simple Supply versus demand.
Speaker 2:You Get it done, just get it done. You, you know, if you're going to do it, in three months time it's going to be something else. There'll be something going on america, there's something going on with the dollar. There'll be something going on. So just get it done. You know, and it allows you, it unlocks you, to go to the next thing you wanted to do. So I think, just get it done. And we're seeing, you know great like days on market are lower. So you know, from when it hits the market, sales are lower, stock levels are lower, interest rates are coming down and the talk about it is good enough. It's good enough, it has an impact. So just get it done.
Speaker 1:Not only that, it depends what you are going to do when you sell your property, because everyone wants to be a seller when the market's hot, but no one wants to be a seller when the market's hot, but no one wants to be a buyer when the market's hot. So you know, if you're selling your property in a hot market, you're going to be getting great money, but good luck trying to buy into that market. So the best time to do it is now. You just want to make sure that you don't miss that boat, because that market is heating up. We're seeing it.
Speaker 2:Bottom line. People try to, you know, really work real estate out. The bottom bottom line is it's going to double in 10 years on the Northern Beaches. It just always has. It always has Bottom line, right Bottom line. And the bottom line is when you put in $100,000, the bank will put in $400,000 and the bank will let you keep the capital growth and you keep the rent. It's clever. It's still a terrific investment. Yeah, and look at what's happened with super. Like uh, lately some people have been absolutely throttled on their super. Oh, yeah, um, I have to say people don't know there's there's three and a half billion dollars sitting in australian super. We are the trillion. We are the number one super country in the world per capita. Our pot of gold is number two in the world. How much we've got in our super that four trillion? Check your super statements, yeah check your super statements.
Speaker 1:it happened to a friend of ours because we said, guys, you should be in a self-managed super fund, buy some of these storage units that we've got you set and and forget there's zero maintenance.
Speaker 1:It's a no-brainer. They all go up just like any other real estate does. And we said speak with your accountant about setting up a self-managed super fund. And they called. They were almost in tears. They're like I can't believe it. I haven't actually checked my super since 2019, and I've lost $36,000. $36,000 of their super is vanished into thin air. It doesn't happen with property. It doesn't happen with property.
Speaker 2:All the beach is property. But the whole super thing. If you want to sell your property and this is what I've had a couple of clients do how good is this? This is clever. They've said, mark, I want to sell my property and I go through and talk with them. Why this? They're like we just really need to free up some cash. And I don't know. They sold their property that they owned in their name to their super so they've actually just they've got money sitting over there.
Speaker 2:They're untapped and they need to tap into that, that, that and sell that investment property. They go, wow, there zhup.
Speaker 1:Wow, bye-bye. There you go, guys. All right, we're off. Wait, we're going to.