The PROPERTY DOCTORS, Sydney Australia Novak Properties
NOVAK PROPERTIES CREW and PROPERTY LEGENDS in the industry share their experiences and knowledge. Hacks and tips to make you a smarter property GURU :) Learn with exclusive content, advice, insider info and HOT real estate industry PRO SECRETS. For sale, for lease, residential, commercial, buying off the plan, finance, mortgages, interest rates, first home buyer, investments - all topics covered. The untold real estate info you've been waiting for.
The PROPERTY DOCTORS, Sydney Australia Novak Properties
EP. 1409 Property and Election Roulette
The looming federal election has property owners and investors across Australia asking the burning question: what will happen to the real estate market after votes are counted? Our Northern Beaches agents tackle this head-on, cutting through political noise to deliver insights that matter.
Forget the campaign promises – we dig into what's actually happening with housing policy. Both major parties aren't trying to make property more affordable by lowering prices. Instead, they're focused on helping more Australians enter the market through initiatives like 5% deposits without price restrictions, access to superannuation for deposits, and government equity sharing programs where up to 40% of the purchase price is covered. The result? More buyers at open homes competing for the same properties.
Our team predicts entry-level units will be the big winners post-election, with potentially 10% growth over the next year as traditional renters transition to first-time buyers. Houses may level out somewhat but still achieve 6-7% growth through 2026. While both parties promise to address housing supply, the reality remains challenging – construction costs, compliance requirements, and development fees continue making it financially risky for developers to build.
The property market resembles a freight train with momentum that transcends political cycles. Whether Labor or Liberal forms government, the fundamentals driving our market remain largely unchanged. Ready to navigate the post-election property landscape? Contact our Northern Beaches team for expert guidance tailored to your real estate goals.
Alright. People are asking us if it goes Labor, what's gonna happen to property? If it goes liberal, what's gonna happen with property? Our crystal ball stay tuned. Oh, what happened?
Speaker 2:I'm the ringleader, so I'm gonna Morning morning, mr Wapshot. Hi, Mr Novak.
Speaker 1:The Economist.
Speaker 2:That's right hey.
Speaker 1:How are you?
Speaker 2:Yeah, good mate Yourself.
Speaker 1:Good, it's a big week. It's a big week, so Saturday night is it? Is it Saturday night, we get the result.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I believe so. The big count all happening and a lot of policy to talk about that's going to going to affect everyone at home, um, especially with real estate policy, very exciting a lot of promises being made by both parties?
Speaker 1:yeah, there often is, isn't there? A lot of promises being made, um, some of them property related. So it's, um, it's pretty interesting. So we're real estate agents on the Northern beaches of Sydney, so we're fortunate to be in, I'd say, probably a pretty balanced area and get the feedback from people about property, about sort of what's happening out there. Yeah, what do you reckon what's going to happen to property post these elections?
Speaker 2:If I'm reading between the lines with a lot of this policy, what it looks like to me is not necessarily policy to bring affordability down, but it's more unlocking the ability for other people to now afford property. So what I mean by that, guys, is my suggestion would be that, rather than bringing prices of property down, the government's going to continue pushing for support to allow people to enter the property market, that being ways of 5% deposits, unrestrictions on prices. So traditionally we had I think it was 900,000 for first home buyers that applied the 5% deposit. Now Labor's thinking of unrestricting that. So based on you know your earnings don't limit you and the price of the property doesn't limit you for the 5% deposit. So that's, along with things like you know, superannuation, to allow for deposits as well. So I think, liberals, up to $50,000, you know there's equity sharing.
Speaker 1:Buyers don't know about being able to use their voluntary contributions with super as a deposit. So yeah's, there's some.
Speaker 2:Sorry, I've got keep going yeah, so I think that, um, a lot of these policies, like the equity sharing, which is a big one, where you know, basically the government takes responsibility of 40 of the, the purchase price, um, meaning that the purchaser, if they were purchasing a million dollar property to make it easy, they would only be paying a mortgage mortgage on the first five years of $650,000. Yeah, so I think if you look at all this policy and you pull it all apart, it looks like property is going to continue the path it's been on for the last 10, 20, 30 years, the path that's been on for the last 10, 20, 30 years. And it's more gonna be about unlocking ways for the public to enter these markets which they couldn't before, for example, through lower deposits, access through super, you know, government grants where they buy into the equity. So I'm actually pretty excited for the entry-level stock of real estate as I think they're probably going to get the biggest assistance, that buyer pool.
Speaker 2:And obviously, guys, what that means is your traditional. You know you've got 10 people rocking up to your open home. Well, all of a sudden, with these policies, that 10 becomes 20, 25 now, because people that couldn't afford it, didn't have the deposit, didn't have the ability to, to enter the market and now getting those stepping stones to be able to and we all know with a more competitive, more, uh, high demand in a market, um, there's only one way the prices go and that is up so liberal or labor post saturday night, um, like they've got what they stand for, I guess, with liberal and with labor what they stand for.
Speaker 1:But I guess what people are concerned with is the net result post that um so in in. You know, I personally think that there's. It's a little bit like a freight train. Um, I think what donald trump has done politically um has had a lot more change and momentum very early. That's really rare in our political system or in any political system, to have so much change so early.
Speaker 1:I'm thinking it's going to be a little bit more floppy with both of the guys. It's not going to be violent, you know, like what's happened in America with changes. And the nice thing is and I think sometimes with politics you can cut off the head of the snake but the whole body's still there or you can get rid of the. You know the horse is the horse and you change just changing the jockey over. So you know, I still think the majority of of of the momentum fell. If labor stays in will stay how it is, or if liberal comes in will be what we're used to. I don't think it'll be radical. Um, that net effect, what do you think it's going to do to property prices yeah, like I said, I think it's it's only going to improve the market.
Speaker 2:I think, uh, a lot of the talk and policy is just about making things, opening up the market to more people, as opposed to, you know, bringing out supply. The tough thing about bringing on supply to a market is it generally takes three, five years to feel any effect, if any effect at all, because generally, you know we've got such a high migration rate, you know I'd see what… yeah, pardon, yeah, that's new supply. Yeah, yeah, correct, yeah. So I feel like, even with both parties having that, you know, billion dollar fund and you know we're going to build 10 000 houses, all that um talk, I really don't think that's going to have too much of um an impact. You know, I feel that we'll probably fill the seats up by the time they're built.
Speaker 2:Um, we all know things take a long time too, a lot of red tape with your construction. It would be good to see the government focus on that side of things, of construction, as opposed to anything else. I mean, we've seen some crazy statistics come out, you know, even of developers nearby, of what it costs to build a unit these days. All the rules, compliance, compliance, cost of resources. I mean you, you'd think when they quoted 600 000 to build a square box. You're thinking of a your traditional five bedroom house.
Speaker 1:That's not the case anymore yeah, as little as five years ago, four years ago and it's like everything.
Speaker 2:I mean, if you're starting from, you know how do you make that any less expensive or or affordable for for people if the raw materials coming up to the finished product haven't haven't changed, have only increased? I mean, you know there's talk of how many taxes are involved in the building process. You know they seem to say that taxes almost take up half of the build cost in a lot of houses. I've seen a report being done, so I think if there's to be a real impact on affordability, it's probably going to be on that side of the stick. What do you think, mark?
Speaker 1:Yeah, look, I think it's pretty radical to if they're going to get rid of some taxes and some compliance, because compliance is adding to the cost, probably unlikely. It seems like they're not focusing on that. They're focusing on delivering more stock. But it's like in our area. We speak to hundreds of developers over the course of a month, like the biggest guys in our area, and that's what they all say.
Speaker 1:It's just that doesn't work, this doesn't work, that doesn't work as not that they don't have the money, not that they don't want to build, but they can't. They're too worried about coming out of the other end with nothing in their pocket, as in nothing. So it's like why would we do it if there's no incentive? So it's going to be interesting, you know. And things have to move for stock to be delivered to the northern beaches and to Sydney, prices have to go up to make it economical for a developer to do that. Building costs have to go down. Compliance has to go down. Compliance has to go down. Funding has to go down. They're all pretty hard needles to move.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, it really is, and that's why I think we see what they're doing here with, you know, opening up these new avenues. They've sort of gone yeah, that might be a bit tricky to move around. Let's open up this bag of worms in the way of releasing super and things like that. Yeah, you can sort of see where it's going and that's where I've been reading in between the lines. I really think entry-level units will do really well coming out post election. Obviously, we've got to downsize the market, but I just think, the way things are going, that entry-level stock people that are traditionally renters will now be moving into a homeowner segment, which should then give the rental market a bit of a breather, because that will sort of bring up the supply there as those traditional renters move over as owners now with this new support. So I'd see a high demand in that, in that lower one or two betters of, you know, entry level three betters.
Speaker 1:That sort of a thing I think will do quite well post-election I know we all like to bag politicians, but I do have to say um that, this mince fella, um, he, uh, he's given it a red hot crack with a low to medium density introduction. Like, um, the net effect in our area haven't seen, uh, you know what they're trying to achieve, uh being achieved, but he's had a red hot crack going across 170 town centres oh yeah, definitely, and you know, you, you, you probably need to be that aggressive in this day and age.
Speaker 2:So, you know, because there's so many boxes to tick, so many nods to get from this person, that person, it probably takes what Mr Minns has done with that emergency group where there's, you know, only a couple of guys that need to pass their eyes through it. So you know, you probably do need to be a bit aggressive and unfortunately, with these things, the processes, they don't fast track the actual approvals through this, it's more just allowing a bigger footprint to be built on.
Speaker 1:So, again, we'll see these changes come, but it won't be for another two, three, five years so spinning the roulette wheel on the election on property who's gonna win and what's gonna happen with property?
Speaker 2:in a few sentences, in summary well, um, after reading what I was reading this morning, it seems to be that, um, after reading what I was reading this morning, it seems to be that, with the Canadian, they just had their elections Liberals won over there and what they're saying is it was a Trump effect. So what they're essentially saying is that the Liberals were actually falling behind the last three months of their campaign. They were losing campaign. They were losing, um, but the whole idea of, apparently, since the inauguration of trump, the, the tariffs, um, there were three key steps and they tracked the? Um popular popularity of the party, and as each of these came out, liberals started to make their way back back up again. Um, so I'm a little bit scared because you can sort of see dutton playing the trump card, um, and whether, how, how, the general public takes that, I don't know. I sort of think albanese is playing it safe under the radar, um, so you sort of can't pick at him. Uh, I'm I would have preferred a liberal win here, um, but I something in the back of my head's telling me that labor's poking its head up. We're going to see something a little bit crazy with the whole trump fiasco and and dutton's relationship with him there.
Speaker 2:Um, I think property is going to go well either way. Um, probably a little bit more inclined on a liberal side. Um, I do like a little bit more of their policy. Um, real estate wise. Um, it's really a toss of the coin. I'm going to go something crazy. I'm going to say labor wins and I'm going to say property prices go up. Mark what's your, how much?
Speaker 1:pardon, how much? How much is the property pay is going to go up?
Speaker 2:I think units do 10% Housing sort of. I see it levelling out a bit but still doing quite well. So I'll be around that 6%, 7% mark. That's probably my 2026 outlook for property next year, with either party winning. I don't see too much of a difference either way because a lot of them, you know, have some same policy in a way. So yeah, I see generally the same outcome with property prices, just a little bit unsure of where the Australian public is going to go in terms of the election.
Speaker 1:Interesting. Well, there you go. There you go, guys and girls. That's the punt ahead for the elections this weekend. I'm thinking it's going to go Liberal. I'm thinking it's going to be the next 12 months. House prices are going to be at level and I think the next 12 months unit prices will see probably 10 or 12% growth that period. A couple of really good fundamental reasons. I'll share in another series, but have a great day. See you everyone. Have a great day. Thanks, david. Bye-bye.