Market Trends with Tracy

Belly Bargain

• Saval Foodservice

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0:00 | 3:08

BEEF The tight inventories coupled with good demand is slowing this market decline. Continuing to be exempt from market declines, middle meats being led higher by ribeyes continue to move higher. Strips and tenderloins following along.  Chucks, rounds, and grinds did get the memo and are moving lower. Thin meats - briskets, flanks, sirloin flap - also finding their pricing inching down. This should continue at least to the end of the month. A little good news, a second port of entry, this one in New Mexico, is scheduled to begin allowing live cattle from Mexico starting next week. I do see heifer retention is increasing with needs to happen so the beef herd can be rebuilt. It is a three-year cycle for a calf to be harvested for beef so while it doesn’t help short term, there is relief ahead, maybe 2028. I’m keeping the same advice, stay ahead of your needs but be aware of pricing opportunities as they emerge. 

POULTRY Chicken production was back up over last year by 2 percent, and pricing is steady for next week on boneless skinless random breasts, tenders, and party wings. We may see some movement higher, but I don’t expect anything to push the market up for any length of time. On the Avian flu front, another three new cases affecting 118K turkeys. I think this will continue as the weather cools and the southern migration has begun for wild birds. 

GRAINS Corn closed today at $5.42, up a few pennies from last week. Harvest continues on new crop, but it is very early. Soy leveled off after the last couple weeks pushing higher but I don’t see much to push anything lower. Wheat holds for a second week with all eyes on the Black Sea and unrest there. I don’t see anything to push these markets back down. 

PORK Bellies had farther down to go. Today’s close was the third day below $100 with bellies closing at $85.48. That is a big flashing “buy” sign. I was expecting this belly market to settle about $120, so I severely overestimated the demand for fall bellies. Pork production will increase as the weather cools so I’m thinking we could see these low belly prices for a bit. Butts and ribs also move a bit lower; loins are steady but already a great protein value. 

DAIRY Dairy is down for the week. Through Thursday’s CME close Barrel is down 5, block and butter both down 4. With plenty of raw material I’m thinking we could see a lower dairy market well into Q4. 

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